Iran’s rulers face legitimacy crisis amid spreading unrest (V)

With Iran’s anti-government unrest evolving rapidly and foreign pressure mounting, the clerical establishment appears unable, for now, to tackle what has become a crisis of legitimacy at the heart of the Islamic Republic.

The demonstrations, which began in Tehran last month, have spread to all of Iran’s 31 provinces but have yet to reach the scale of the 2022-3 unrest sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini while in detention for allegedly violating Islamic dress codes.

Starting in Tehran with shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar angered by a sharp slide in the rial currency, the latest protests now involve others – mainly young men rather than the women and girls who played a key role at the Amini protests.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), has reported at least 34 protesters and four security personnel killed, and 2,200 arrested during the unrest, which analysts say highlights a deeper disillusionment with the Shi’ite status quo.

“The collapse is not just of the rial, but of trust,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C.

Authorities have tried to maintain a dual approach to the unrest, saying protests over the economy are legitimate and will be met by dialogue, while meeting some demonstrations with tear gas amid violent street confrontations.

Nearly five decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s religious rulers are struggling to bridge the gap between their priorities and the expectations of a young society.

“I just want to live a peaceful, normal life … Instead, they (the rulers) insist on a nuclear program, supporting armed groups in the region, and maintaining hostility toward the United States,” Mina, 25, told Reuters by phone from Kuhdasht in the western Lorestan province.

“Those policies may have made sense in 1979, but not today. The world has changed,” said the jobless university graduate.

PROTESTERS TAKE OVER THE STREETS

A former senior official from the establishment’s reformist wing said the Islamic Republic’s core ideological pillars — from enforced dress codes to foreign policy choices – did not resonate with those under 30 – nearly half the population.

“The younger generation no longer believes in revolutionary slogans — it wants to live freely,” he said.

The hijab, a flashpoint during the Amini protests, is now being enforced selectively. Many Iranian women now openly refuse to wear it in public places – breaking with a tradition which has long defined the Islamic Republic.

In the ongoing protests, many protesters are venting anger over Tehran’s support for militants in the region, chanting slogans such as “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran,” signalling frustration at the establishment’s priorities.

Tehran’s regional sway has been weakened by Israel’s attacks on its proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – as well as by the ousting of Iran’s close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

In a video shared on X and verified by Reuters, protesters in the second-most-populated city of Mashhad, in the northeast, were seen bringing a large Iranian flag down from a pole and tearing it up.

People clashed with security forces in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and cheering protesters marched through Abdanan, a city in southwestern Ilam province, other videos verified by Reuters this week showed.

In a video from the northeastern city of Gonabad, which Reuters was unable to verify, young men were seen rushing out of a seminary mosque to join a large crowd of protesters cheering them on in an apparent revolt against the clergy.

NO EASY WAY OUT FOR IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER

Vatanka from the Washington-based Middle East Institute said the Iranian clerical system had survived repeated protest cycles by repression and tactical concessions but the strategy was reaching its limits.

“Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed,” he said.

In other countries in the region such as Syria, Libya and Iraq, longtime leaders only fell after a combination of protests and military intervention.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said he might come to the aid of Iranian protesters if security forces fire on them.

“We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” he posted, without elaborating, on January 2, seven months after Israeli and U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites in a 12-day war.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, facing one of the most precarious moments of his decades-long rule, responded by vowing Iran “will not yield to the enemy.”

The former Iranian official said there is no easy way out for the 86-year-old leader, whose decades-old policies of building proxies, evading sanctions and advancing nuclear and missile programs appear to be unravelling.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has praised the protests, calling them “a decisive moment in which the Iranian people take their futures into their hands”.

Inside Iran, opinions are divided on whether foreign military intervention is imminent or possible and even firm government critics question whether it is desirable.

“Enough is enough. For 50 years this regime has been ruling my country. Look at the result. We are poor, isolated and frustrated,” said a 31-year-old man in the central city of Isfahan on condition of anonymity.

Asked whether he supported foreign intervention, he replied: “No. I don’t want my country to suffer military strikes again. Our people have endured enough. We want peace and friendship with the world — without the Islamic Republic.”

Exiled opponents of the Islamic Republic, themselves deeply divided, think their moment to bring down the establishment may be close at hand and have called for more protests. But how far they enjoy any support inside the country is uncertain.