How Could the Mets Finish the Offseason? Part 1

This offseason is unlike the last two. Last offseason, Juan Soto, a 26-year-old bona fide superstar, headlined the free agent class. The previous offseason, Shohei Ohtani, the unicorn, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were available. Ohtani seemingly never truly entertained the idea of playing in New York and therefore did not get as far as a real offer from either the Mets or the Yankees. Yamamoto, a 25-year-old superstar in his own right (albeit in the NPB), strongly considered both the Mets and the Yankees, but ultimately signed with the Dodgers. The Mets, rumored to be the runner-up in his sweepstakes, came up short on David Stearns’ first attempt at reeling in a big fish.

This offseason, there is no generational headliner. Yes, Kyle Tucker is an excellent hitter, but he is turning 29 and had an underwhelming second half, connecting on only five home runs for a season total of 22. Aside from Tucker, the top hitters available are Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger via free agency and Ketel Marte, on the trade candidate. To this date, this offseason only one player has topped the $200 million mark: Dylan Cease, and when factoring in deferrals, the contract’s value falls under that benchmark at “just” $187 million. Moreover, only two other players have passed the centennial mark: Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso.

Suffice to say, this has been a frugal offseason, which, historically speaking, is commonplace when free agency is lacking a clear-cut headliner. At the same time, this offseason has been a harsh reality check for us Mets fans. In the aftermath of the team’s dismal second half, which left the Mets outside of the playoffs, the front office decided to move on from its longstanding core of homegrown players. Many have been let down, disturbed, or turned off by Stearns and Co.’s decision-making, including downgrading from Edwin Díaz and failing to replace the Polar Bear’s production.

This is a great time to remind ourselves that the Mets are no longer owned by the Wilpons. This is not the Wilpons being too cheap to pay for Edgardo Alfonzo or Zack Wheeler; this is Stearns drawing a line. Stearns has been transparent that he is more than willing to spend, and spend big, on the likes of Soto, Yamamoto, and players of that caliber (and age). Yet, on the flipside, he has no appetite to hand non-elite players in their thirties long-term deals. While last offseason we were treated to the former, signing Soto to the largest contract in baseball history, this offseason we’ve been treated to the latter. Shown not only in his disinterest in re-signing Alonso, but also in trading Brandon Nimmo‘s contract, which was for five more years.

Yet, there may be a silver lining to this slow offseason. The Blue Jays, who just signed Kazuma Okamoto, have now filled out their lineup for the 2026 season. While they are still in the market for Bichette or Tucker, based on recent reports are no longer entertaining bringing in both. Furthermore, I’d venture to say that they are more than comfortable with their lineup and depth at this point. The Blue Jays’ hesitation to dole out the kind of contracts either Bichette or Tucker is currently looking for may have even been a motivating factor in signing Okamoto.

I am left wondering, who exactly is even in the market for these bats?

The Yankees are the clear frontrunners for Bellinger, and the Red Sox have been projected all offseason to land one of Bichette or Bregman, and still neither team has signed anyone. Tucker no longer has a clear-cut leader for his services. If anything, with the Blue Jays’ need for him minimized, the Yankees have more leverage with Bellinger than before. The Red Sox are also thanking the Blue Jays now that it looks like they may be the frontrunners for both Bichette and Bregman, and only need one.

Let’s say the Yankees sign Bellinger and the Red Sox sign Bregman, which teams are left that can afford to pay Bichette or Tucker? The Blue Jays, while they have the means, do not really have the opportunity (they currently have a full lineup) or proper motive. While any team’s lineup would surely benefit from having as many stars as possible, given the luxury tax and the current players on their roster, signing both is probably not in the cards for the Jays.

The Dodgers have the spending power, but seem unmotivated to spend this offseason, and after two straight World Series titles, they cannot be faulted for taking a back seat. They may have potential opportunities for either Bichette or Tucker; yet the Dodgers would be blocking Alex Freeland and Dalton Rushing, two young, major-league-ready contributors.

Which brings us to the Mets. Flush with motive, means and opportunity, could it be that Stearns has played the market squarely into his crosshairs? The remaining free agents are seemingly in an inauspicious position, where one will be left without a chair once the music stops. While Stearns has been steadfast in his reluctance to sign aging stars to long-term contracts, he is more than willing to offer them shorter-term deals with a hefty average annual value (AAV). Similar to last offseason with Bregman and Alonso, it seems all four of these players are ticketed for a similar fate, barring some truly unforeseen intervention. Stearns and Co. are situated in a near-ideal situation, and that’s before even considering Ketel Marte’s availability via trade.

Put simply, there are five big names out there, and only two teams are very serious about attaining one of them. That leaves three players remaining with no clear landing spot in a market that has now shifted to a team-dictated market. If a team like the Tigers, Diamondbacks, or Cubs really wanted Bregman or Bichette, they’d probably be signed by now. Teams’ hesitance is clear, and no one is excited to give anyone a long-term contract this offseason. We are waiting on this group of talented free agents to reach the point where they accept the fate the market has rudely dealt them and agree to sign shorter-term contracts. When that inevitability comes to the fore, which one of those aforementioned teams is going to outbid the Mets on a 1-3 year deal? And even if both the Dodgers and Blue Jays do exactly that, the Mets would still be left with one of the five players.

Stearns has slowplayed this offseason to perfection. It looks like the Mets are all but assured to land one key offensive contributor on a shorter contract. The question is, with the odds in his favor, can Stearns seal the deal?

Stay tuned for Part 2, which will cover the starting pitching market.

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