Art Fairs at a Turning Point: Why Galleries Can’t Afford to Go—but Can’t Afford to Stop

Whenever the art world reckons with its global overgrowth, people point to art fairs as a central culprit. This was especially true late last year, when headlines announced the shuttering of multiple high-profile galleries and satellite spaces, after which several more galleries announced that they’d be pulling back from the fair circuit. Since Art Basel launched in Switzerland in 1970 as the first truly global fair—initially joined by a handful of regional counterparts, such as the historic Art Cologne and the now-defunct FIAC—that circuit has expanded at a staggering pace in what is arguably one of the most impactful structural shifts in the modern contemporary art market.

When Frieze entered the London scene in the early 2000s—during the buoyant stretch between the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis—it did so in a market still building momentum and hype, not only among connoisseurs but also a growing class of hedge fund collectors and would-be art investors. What followed was rapid global proliferation: from fewer than 50 fairs worldwide in the early 2000s to more than 400 by 2019, driven by corporate franchising models such as Art Basel and Frieze, and by shifting concentrations of wealth in Asia, Latin America and later the Middle East, which created demand for localized market gateways.

Although the pandemic briefly slowed this growth, the pause was short-lived. New fairs are already planned for 2026, many aligned with the Gulf’s rising economic and cultural clout, while the 12-fair marathon of New York Art Week—and an even denser calendar in Miami—signals a system pushed to its limit. The result is what is now widely referred to as “fair fatigue”—too many fairs showing the same galleries and chasing the same finite group of collectors, many of whom are no longer willing to travel nonstop, often just to see the same art. As a result, fair audiences are becoming visibly more regional, with Europeans appearing less consistently in New York or Miami and Americans traveling less frequently to Basel or London.

At the same time, as galleries have grown increasingly dependent on VIP traffic to justify rising participation costs beyond public engagement, fairs have pivoted toward maximizing ticket sales, capitalizing on art’s absorption into lifestyle storytelling and the broader experience economy. For many of today’s visitors, fairs have become as much about spectacle as commerce, aligning themselves with other forms of symbolically charged, Instagram-tailored entertainment. This is nowhere more evident than at Art Basel Miami Beach, which has evolved into a massive social event often disconnected from the buying process. While attendance continues to climb, galleries broadly agree that the pool of active collectors is shrinking, with fewer new buyers entering the market and established ones slowing down or stepping away.

According to the latest Art Basel & UBS market report, there were 336 art fairs worldwide in 2024—the lowest total since 2021 and 71 fewer than in 2019. A total of 31 fairs ceased to exist in 2024. Over half of those shuttered were based in Europe, including Masterpiece and the Olympia Art and Antiques Fair in London, the Outsider Art Fair and 1-54 Contemporary African Art Fair in Paris and regional fairs in Belgium, Germany and Switzerland. Several fairs also ended in Asia, including Art Beijing, StART in Seoul (along with its South African edition), and both Art Hunt and Taipei Gendai in Taipei. Four U.S. fairs closed, including Fridge Art Fair and the San Francisco Tribal and Textile Art Show, which had run for more than 30 years. In 2025, ADAA The Art Show canceled its October edition, citing the market’s ongoing contraction and the need to rethink a model that has long shown signs of strain. “We’ve been listening carefully to our members, to the moment we’re in, and to the shifting dynamics of the art world,” a spokesperson told Observer. After a buzzy New York debut in 2023, PHOTOFAIRS skipped its Armory Week return in both 2024 and 2025 before canceling its Hong Kong edition last March, citing “logistical constraints.”

Galleries can’t afford fairs, but skipping them is worse

As the industry exits a game-changing 2025 and enters 2026 with open questions, a broad consensus has emerged that the current fair system is no longer sustainable. Yet paradoxically, even as slowing market conditions make it harder for galleries—particularly emerging and mid-tier spaces operating on razor-thin margins—to afford participation, many cannot afford to opt out either. Fair attendance has become a branding necessity, with the roster of fairs a gallery attends now functioning as a marker of status—defining its perceived tier much like FIFA tournaments do for national football teams.

Still, the dominant narrative casting art fairs—especially global corporate brands—as villains threatening the ecosystem’s sustainability overlooks a more complex reality. Even if fair reporting only offers a partial and occasionally misleading snapshot of market health, these events continue to drive momentum and collector energy. Early 2025 sales in London and Paris helped restore market confidence, with that enthusiasm carrying through to the fall season.

At the same time, fairs undeniably represent a financial gamble for galleries. Rising costs for participation, shipping and travel can easily become a death sentence for smaller galleries. But fairs can also, and not infrequently, reverse a gallery’s trajectory, offering a real shot at international exposure, institutional recognition and—on occasion—sales large enough to carry the year. This helps explain why, even amid tightening margins, the average number of fairs attended per gallery declined only slightly, from four in 2019, 2022 and 2023 to three in 2024.

Average booth fees are part of the precarious math. At Art Basel, booths typically range from $11,000 to $24,500 for curated sections like Positions or Nova in Miami, to between $50,000 and $200,000 for the main sector, depending on square footage. Even at fairs aimed at emerging dealers—such as NADA—booth fees now range from roughly $8,000 to $11,000 for project spaces and from $14,000 to $16,000 for a standard booth.

According to the 2025 art fair report by First Thursday, a new sales intelligence platform focused on dealer performance and market analytics, nearly half of the galleries surveyed spent more than £30,000 ($40,000) on average per fair. Nearly one in five reported spending between £50,000 and £100,000, while 6 percent exceeded £100,000 ($135,000).

According to the Art Basel & UBS report, art fair sales accounted for 30 percent of total dealer sales in 2024—a 2 percent increase from 2023. This growth was largely driven by overseas fairs, which remain essential entry points into new markets, enabling galleries to build followings and establish connections in new regions. Underscoring the role fairs continue to play in generating excitement and reactivating collector interest, the Art Basel & UBS Global Collecting Report found that 58 percent of collectors made purchases linked to fairs in 2024, up from 39 percent the year before.

Yet the same report highlights the system’s underlying imbalance, echoed in the fair’s own data: dealers with annual turnover above $10 million reported the highest share of fair-related sales, at 34 percent—up 4 percent year over year. For smaller galleries, the share either stagnated or declined, with the steepest drop among those with turnover below $250,000, whose fair-linked sales fell from 26 percent to 23 percent. As the market continues to split along a K-shaped curve, fairs increasingly reward scale while amplifying risk at the margins.

The central question galleries face is return on investment

According to a survey by First Thursday—a recently launched sales intelligence platform focused on dealer performance and market analytics—the average ROI of fair participation was just 2.6 out of 5. Not a single respondent awarded a perfect score. Yet 71 respondents said they valued exposure to new audiences and potential buyers more than immediate sales.

For galleries serving as bridges between continents—especially in Asia—fairs remain essential for market entry and long-term relationship building.

Since their inception, fairs have functioned primarily as platforms for visibility and access ahead of transaction, condensing supply and demand into temporary marketplaces that reduce the costs of search, comparison and negotiation. In the context of the art world, however, they have also come to compress social, symbolic and cultural capital—reshaping not only the market but the canon.

On the gallery side, as the market tightens and recalibrates—and sell-outs become far less predictable—being deliberate and strategic in approaching fair participation has become imperative. This applies both to how galleries tailor their presentations to each specific context and to which fairs they choose to attend—choices that must now align with artist trajectories and collector bases.

Earlier this year, Isaac Lyles, founder of New York gallery Lyles & King, confirmed that after years of attending every fair possible, he became more selective in 2025. “It’s really about intentionality and about choosing projects that feel specific and meaningful, rather than doing things out of habit,” he told Observer, explaining that the shift is less about quantity than about making the right choices. “Everything should be intentional—about the work and the context.” In practice, that means weighing short-term ROI against opportunity cost and long-term return.

Many galleries are taking an even more conservative approach to fair participation in 2026. That often means skipping first-time appearances in nascent markets and showing less tolerance for experimentation.

“I am not ‘anti-art fair,’ but my approach is increasingly strategic and selective,” said Emilia Yin of L.A.-based Make Room, explaining that her top priority for 2026 is positioning—being part of the “best” fairs that place the program in front of high-caliber collectors and a truly engaged audience. For a gallery like Make Room, which functions as an international bridge—particularly in Asia—art fairs remain essential for entering new markets and cultivating long-term relationships. Yin’s 2026 strategy will focus on each fair’s ability to foster meaningful conversations. “We are looking for platforms that don’t just provide foot traffic or a space to show, but prioritize quality interactions and help us reach new, intentional audiences,” she told Observer.

“Galleries are concentrating instead on fairs where they’ve seen strong historical performance, in markets where they already have an established collector base,” confirmed First Thursday founder Callum Hales Thomson, noting that this shift reflects conservation rather than growth. “The risk-reward equation around fair participation just isn’t as favourable as it was even two or three years ago, particularly once you factor in rising costs and softer demand.”

At the same time, First Thursday’s survey highlights a deeper structural issue. Despite the financial stakes, many galleries still lack even basic sales strategies when it comes to fairs. Anyone who has spent time on the fair floor—especially during VIP previews—knows the drill: the adrenaline of those first hours, a blur of conversations, business cards exchanged, and notes scribbled in haste between booth visits. By the end of the day, exhaustion sets in, and follow-ups—if they happen at all—often come too late. Many galleries admit they struggle to read their own notes, fail to recognize returning collectors or, in some cases, lose inquiry books altogether. Several acknowledged having lost sales simply because they didn’t follow up fast enough.

Coming from a digital sales and data background, Hales Thomson said he was struck by how many galleries still run fair operations on notebooks and spreadsheets. “There’s a significant amount of value being left on the table,” he said. “Fairs compress a huge amount of commercial pressure into a very short window, and if you’re purely dependent on on-booth sales, it becomes an all-or-nothing proposition.” According to First Thursday’s survey, 83 percent of galleries still use pen and paper to record inquiries at fairs, while 60 percent rely primarily on business cards.

Data from the Art Basel & UBS report supports the need for a more structured approach. While 14 percent of sales are made during previews, 70 percent are closed on-site and 16 percent take place after the fair—underscoring the importance of having a clear plan before, during and after the event.

In a more challenging market, galleries have to work harder for every sale, Hales Thomson noted. “That might mean spending more time re-engaging past contacts before a fair, sending more personalized follow-ups, or simply getting back to people faster with the information they requested,” he said. “It still surprises me how many galleries take days to follow up with people they met on the booth.” That may have worked when sell-outs were common, but today it often means missed opportunities.

That gap is exactly what led Hales Thomson to launch First Thursday. “We’re solving for this exact problem by building tools that help galleries maximize the return they get from every fair,” he explained. “That means having a complete profile of everyone they meet—what they liked, how they engaged with the gallery before—so galleries can be laser-focused on the right contacts and turn first meetings into long-term relationships.”

For the same reason, despite rising costs and tightening margins, many galleries are also trying to extract more value from the broader moment surrounding each fair. This helps explain the return of dinners, talks and off-site events designed to foster more meaningful and personal engagement beyond the booth. “Instead of parachuting in for a few days, galleries are investing more in local activations—collector dinners, curator conversations, even pop-up exhibitions that run alongside the fair,” Hales Thomson said. “It’s about extending the fair into a longer, more relational experience.”

Fairs are becoming more experience-based and context-specific

On the fair’s side, the past year has brought more visible attempts to rethink and recalibrate the model, particularly around issues of financial sustainability, diversification and curated contextualization.

One notable shift has been in fair layouts and booth placement strategies—an area where galleries have grown increasingly vocal about the politics of visibility. Last spring, the Paris gallery Air de Paris publicly withdrew from Art Basel in Basel after 25 consecutive years of participation, citing its assigned booth placement as the reason. In an open letter, the founders explained that their space had been relocated from a long-standing, prominent location to a secondary position, which, in their view, “discredited the gallery.” The episode underscored a broader truth: placement at a fair is not neutral. It directly affects foot traffic, perception and sales—even as galleries pay the same fees regardless of location.

Against this backdrop, Art Basel Miami Beach’s floor plan in December adopted a logic long used by Frieze London, placing lower- and mid-tier galleries in more central, high-traffic areas rather than pushing them to the margins. In Miami, the curated sections—including the widely discussed Zero—were positioned near one of the main entrances, making them almost unavoidable for visitors. Still, the floor plan redesign followed a wave of high-profile withdrawals in the run-up to the fair: longtime exhibitors including Miguel Abreu, Chantal Crousel, Alison Jacques, Peter Kilchmann, Edward Tyler Nahem, Luisa Strina, Lia Rumma and BANK (Shanghai) pulled out, reportedly due to a mix of cost pressures, scheduling conflicts and strategic reprioritization. For many, this was the actual impetus for the new layout, as Art Basel simultaneously filled 12 last-minute openings from its waitlist.

That same week, Untitled Art Miami’s Nest sector highlighted the fair’s continued commitment to emerging voices and experimental practices. Through a redesigned booth structure, the fair created a dedicated section for a larger group of early-career galleries, offering progressive pricing, subsidized participation and smaller, more focused presentations—an approach that deliberately shifted the emphasis from scale toward access and visibility.

It’s precisely this kind of more targeted, supportive fair experience that galleries are now calling for in order to justify rising costs. “I believe there is a growing need for a new ‘social contract’ between fair organizers and participating galleries,” said Make Room founder Emilia Yin, noting that especially for a new generation of galleries like hers—ones committed to staying and growing—organizers must take on the role of active facilitators. That means going beyond booth logistics to introduce VIPs and institutions to newer participants. “These introductions are vital; they help us build the market confidence necessary to sustain long-term commitment to the fair and the region,” she told Observer, echoing a widely shared sentiment.

Dealers are increasingly asking not only for lower participation fees, but also for more flexible formats—such as split booths or commission-based models—and deeper support in collector engagement. This includes curated introductions, stronger local connections and post-fair tools that help convert initial interest into actual sales.

More fairs are also shifting toward context-specific, curatorially and experientially driven formats, responding to a collector base that is increasingly regional and less uniformly global. The upcoming Art Basel Qatar’s artist-led edition—closer in spirit to a biennial than a traditional fair—signals a more deliberate move toward thoughtful, context-conscious programming rather than simply exporting a “global event.” This shift is taking place even as the corporate-led expansion of fairs continues, with Art Abu Dhabi and the forthcoming Frieze Abu Dhabi in 2026. Notably, both initiatives were developed in close partnership with state tourism and cultural authorities—Art Basel Qatar with Qatar Museums and Frieze Abu Dhabi with the Department of Culture and Tourism Abu Dhabi—embedding the fairs within broader government-led cultural and economic strategies that demand more site-specific, locally attuned business models.

Over the past several years, both Art Basel Hong Kong and Art Basel Miami Beach have placed growing emphasis on the geographic and artistic ecosystems they represent—Asia and the Americas, respectively—foregrounding local scenes as central to their identities. Frieze Seoul has followed a similar path, beginning with its collaboration with the historical Korean fair Kiaf, then deepening ties with local institutions and, most recently, launching Frieze House to further connect with the Korean creative community. “The 2025 edition underscored how vital and resilient the art scene in Korea and across Asia is,” said Observer’s fair director, Patrick Lee. “Even amid global uncertainty, the fair saw strong engagement from collectors and institutions, with thoughtful buying across the board.”

In New York, Independent 20th Century has adopted a similarly curatorially conscious approach, partnering with Sotheby’s to stage its upcoming September edition in the iconic Breuer building—a cultural landmark tied to the history of modern art. The choice of venue, with its architectural and historical resonance, aligns closely with the fair’s focus while enriching the visitor experience by tapping into the experience- and destination-driven economy.

This idea of spatial storytelling and symbolic value also defines the highly curated Design Miami Paris, staged inside the elegant interiors of a classic Paris hôtel particulier. A similar logic has long animated NOMAD, the boutique fair dedicated to collectible design, which reached a new crescendo in its Abu Dhabi edition last November by transforming a decommissioned airport terminal into a thematically cohesive fair. “By filling this iconic modernist terminal with collectible design and art, the entire experience shifts: people look differently at the architecture, at the light, at the scale of the space,” NOMAD founder and director Bellavance-Lecompte told Observer. “The fair allows them to rediscover a familiar landmark with new eyes, transforming the act of ‘passing through’ into an act of contemplation.”

As fairs have continued to grow in both scale and number, many collectors are increasingly gravitating toward smaller, boutique formats. A prime example—running concurrently with Art Basel Paris—is Paris Internationale, which has maintained a deliberately alternative character since its founding. From occupying raw, semi-abandoned spaces to developing a communication strategy targeting younger audiences, the fair has consistently resisted the standardized language of conventional fair halls, earning a loyal following among collectors. “From the beginning, we’ve chosen to inhabit spaces that are raw, full of history, sometimes imperfect, but always deeply Parisian,” director Silvia Ammon told Observer in a recent interview. “These places have a soul. They set a tone that’s very different from the uniformity of fair halls—a tone of intimacy, proximity and warmth.”

This climate has also encouraged the rise of more intimate, dealer-led satellite models across major art weeks. Chris Sharp—a gallerist who has launched two independent fairs while continuing to participate in established ones—told Observer that such experiments reflect growing dissatisfaction with the status quo. “I don’t know if Place des Vosges or Post-Fair are viable or sustainable alternatives to a model that works in normal times,” he said, “but they show that participation in contemporary art doesn’t require submission to that model—that you can build your own.”

This impulse strongly echoes what U-Haul Gallery has been exploring for years. The project began by parking a gallery truck outside major fairs around the world, eventually evolving into the inaugural U-Haul Art Fair, timed with Armory Week. There, 11 exhibitors—from emerging spaces to established galleries like Nino Mier—presented work from rented trucks parked near the main fair venues. Priced at the cost of a daily truck rental, the fair offered a deliberately low-cost, mobile alternative to the capital-intensive logic of traditional fairs.

Now in its second edition, the Esther art fair offers a similarly dealer-led, curatorially focused alternative. Founded by Margot Samel and Olga Temnikova, it prioritizes thoughtful presentation over scale, experimentation over white-cube polish and intimacy over spectacle. With low participation fees, Esther reduces transactional pressure, creating what Temnikova describes as “a warm, almost cozy experience”—a place to reconnect, experiment and engage more meaningfully.

On the other side of the world, following the successful two-year experiment of Supper Club, gallerists and cultural producers Willem Molesworth and Ysabelle Cheung are preparing to launch Pavilion, a new alternative platform for the Asia region. Pavilion will debut in Taipei on January 22-26, 2026, followed by a Hong Kong edition on March 23-28, 2026. “Pavilion builds on a long legacy of galleries self-organising art fairs. We put art and culture first, deconstructing the standard art fair experience and reconsidering what is established ‘best practice,’” Molesworth told Observer, describing the project as a hybrid between a fair, a small biennale, a performance festival and a symposium. “It’s a kind of medium and genre blending that feels very of the moment, but somehow also like a return to tradition. We draw inspiration from the friends, collectors, artists and scholars who gathered hundreds of years ago to write poems, paint landscapes and share the artwork and other curiosities that inspired them.”

For Molesworth, Pavilion is first and foremost an opportunity to engage with art as a holistic pursuit—something he sees as increasingly absent from today’s hyper-commercialized fair landscape. “We hope to bring this to the forefront of culture again. One aspect that also sets us apart is that we are introducing this boutique model across the region, fostering a unique collecting experience. This allows us to scale our impact without sacrificing our quality.”

After accelerating the art world’s globalization over the past two decades—transforming it from a relatively niche economy into a mass lifestyle phenomenon—art fairs are now being asked to be more accountable to both audiences and exhibitors, prioritizing purpose and context over sheer ubiquity and branding. As the sector moves forward in 2026, how this shift unfolds may become one of the clearest indicators of the art world’s long-term sustainability.

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