Holy Score: What 12 wins, two bad losses and (another) playoff snub say about the next step for BYU
After 23 wins in two years and a pair of near-misses with the College Football Playoff, BYU is squarely on the brink.
Of what, we aren’t exactly sure.
It’s easy to envision the Cougars, armed with NIL cash and the perfect head coach, becoming an annual Big 12 contender, a periodic Big 12 champion and an occasional CFP participant (presuming the event expands to 16 teams starting next season).
Or is this BYU’s ceiling? Is this as good as it gets for the Cougars in college football’s postmodern era? Despite everything that has gone right — all the big plays, all the fortunate bounces, all the breaks on the margins — they still haven’t won a conference title or ascended into the CFP.
The Cougars are one of just eight programs in the power conferences that have won at least 10 games in each of the past two seasons but the only member of that exclusive group that hasn’t made the CFP. (The others: Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Mississippi, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas.)
So much progress.
So far away.
After all, BYU won 11 games in 2024 but didn’t qualify for the Big 12 championship game or come all that close to the playoff. In the selection committee’s final rankings, the Cougars were seven spots from the final at-large bid, which went to a team, SMU, they defeated on the road early in the season.
Despite losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff to an off-field transgression last summer, the Cougars were arguably better in 2025, with 12 wins and a berth in the conference championship. But in their only matchups against CFP-level opponents, they were sliced and diced: Two losses to Texas Tech by a combined 49 points left them on the outside looking in. (The Cougars had a better case for the CFP in 2024 than they did in 2025.)
The lesson learned through it all: BYU can leave nothing to chance.
The Cougars won’t receive the benefit of the doubt from the CFP selection committee. Nor will the Big 12. Neither school or conference has the brand power to win a resume showdown with at-large candidates from the Big Ten or SEC, which comes as no surprise, or from the ACC, which should be deeply concerning for the conference.
The Cougars aren’t getting into the playoff (with the current format) unless they win the Big 12 title or finish with one loss?
Which brings us back to the original question: Is BYU capable of taking that next step?
Can the Cougars overtake Texas Tech, repel other contenders in a given season — because you know challengers will materialize — and win the conference?
Can they emerge from three grueling months with an 11-1 or 12-1 record and be safely positioned for an at-large bid?
Those are their only paths into the CFP.
Our sense is that without substantial upgrades on the lines of scrimmage (i.e., an influx of NFL-caliber talent), the Cougars have peaked.
That coach Kalani Sitake has crafted a very good program destined to finish just off the pace, a touchdown or two away from the Big 12 title and a win or two away from the CFP.
The last step along either path is immensely difficult.
That said, the challenge ahead does not detract, in any shape or fashion, from BYU’s success this season.
2025 season grade: A. Had you told us in August, after Retzlaff’s departure and before freshman Bear Bachmeier threw his first pass, that the Cougars would win 12 games and reach the conference championship, our jaw would have dropped.
Offensive Player of the Year: Tailback LJ Martin. We seriously considered Bachmeier given the difficult circumstances he inherited and the poise he displayed on a weekly basis. But Martin was BYU’s engine. Healthier than he was in 2024, Martin averaged 100 yards per game and was brilliant in three of the biggest wins: 506 combined yards against Arizona, Utah and Cincinnati.
Defensive player of the Year: LB Jack Kelly. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and safety Tanner Wall were superb, but Kelly performed at a higher level from Week 1 to Week 14 than all but a handful of players in the Big 12. He finished with 10 sacks, 55 tackles and two forced fumbles and was wherever the Cougars needed at precisely the right time. For example: on fourth down, with three minutes remaining in the Holy War.
Best game: BYU 41, Iowa State 27. It would have been easy to select the overtime win at Arizona or the harrowing victory over Utah. But the Hotline was most impressed with BYU’s performance in Ames because of the precarious timing — the Cyclones were fresh following a bye; the Cougars were coming off the Holy War — and because they rallied from a 14-point deficit to dominate the second half. It was a master class in resolve.
Worst game: Texas Tech 34, BYU 7 (Big 12 championship). The first meeting, a lopsided loss in Lubbock, would have been a reasonable choice. But the 29-7 face plant in early November was irrelevant when the teams met Dec. 6 for the conference title: With a victory in Arlington, the Cougars would have qualified for the CFP. They scored first, then did not score again.
X factor: Jay Hill’s departure. The mastermind behind BYU’s stout defense is leaving the program after three years seasons to join Kyle Whittingham’s staff at Michigan. The Cougars are expected to promote Kelly Poppinga, their defensive ends coach, to the coordinator post. The transition should be smooth, but will Poppinga maximize the talent available as effectively as Hill and make all the necessary in-season adjustments?
Half-full outlook: With Bachmeier’s experience — he should be one of the top quarterbacks in the conference next season — plus Martin’s (presumptive) return, a veteran offensive line and what should be an elite secondary, the Cougars are exceedingly well positioned for another A-level season and run at the CFP.
Half-empty outlook: The schedule appears unforgiving with Notre Dame added to the non-conference lineup and a nine-game Big 12 rotation that’s stocked with many of the best teams. The Cougars host both Arizona schools, Cincinnati and Iowa State and visit TCU and Utah. Too much must break right across three months of 50/50 games. A step back seems likely.
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