Investors should not rely on the AI trade to power gains in 2026, according to a $12 billion investment chief
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- Most of Wall Street is still bullish on the AI trade in 2026.
- Peter Boockvar, CIO of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, sees it differently.
- He advises investors not to rely on AI stocks to continue driving growth this year.
Wall Street remains bullish on AI, but the investment chief of a $12 billion firm thinks investors need to be careful not to pin all of their hopes on the technology.
Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, thinks greater opportunities lie outside of the AI trade despite the stellar gains it delivered for the market in 2025.
Many of the tech sector's most dominant players, including Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, have stumbled out of the gate in 2026. Boockvar says the industry's previous growth isn't sustainable and that its days of dominance are numbered.
In his view, the AI trade won't function as the market-driving force that investors have come to know in recent years. While there will still be growth opportunities, being selective will be of much greater importance.
"Investors need to not just blindly rely on that AI tech trade as the leadership group, and understand that there are a lot of other parts of the market that can do well now."
The CIO said on CNBC that he believes market tides are slowly shifting in a direction that doesn't favor prominent AI stocks. In his view, the market has been showing signs of fatigue that some investors may be ignoring.
"I do think in 2026 the AI tech trade is losing some steam in terms of its dominance," he said. "We've seen the market response to Nvidia's report a couple of months ago. We've seen the market punish Meta for its excessive spending."
Boockvar pointed to the struggles of other top AI companies like Oracle, whose lackluster Q3 earnings prompted concerns of AI overspending, and also flagged CoreWeave, a stock that surged 90% in 2025 but still drew consistent concerns of excessive debt and potential lack of profitability.
"I think that entire trade is becoming more differentiated, that we've reached a point where investors are realizing they're going to be winners and they're going to be losers," Boockvar added.
Boockvar highlighted surging capex in 2025 as part of his bearish thesis for this year, arguing that companies should diversify their spending beyond data centers.
"All the capex growth in 2025 was the data center building" he said. "Hopefully in 2026, with the tax incentives in terms of immediate expense, other parts of the economy can take that baton."