Will Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet Win 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Predictions

One year ago at this time, Red Sox Nation was buzzing about Craig Breslow’s blockbuster trade with the Chicago White Sox for left-hander Garrett Crochet.

And the deal didn’t disappoint. Crochet led the majors with a career-high 255 strikeouts and led the American League with a personal-best 205.1 innings pitched.

Crochet’s 18 wins were a single-season best for the southpaw. Only New York Yankees left-hander Max Fried won more games (19) in 2025.

Crochet was rewarded for his efforts as Boston’s ace with his second straight All-Star selection and a second-place finish in voting for the 2025 AL Cy Young Award.

And there’s no shame in that, with Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal winning the award for the second consecutive season after leading the AL with a 2.21 ERA and 6.6 WAR.

So what will 2026 bring? MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince predicts Crochet will be the first Red Sox pitcher to win the Cy Young Award since Rick Porcello in 2016.

“Picking Skubal to win here again might actually be the bold play, considering Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers to win three straight Cy Youngs. But that would go against my policy, and, anyway, we can’t even be totally certain Skubal is in the AL in 2026,” Castrovince writes.

“So again, give me a 2025 finalist who seems destined to win one of these. That’s Crochet, who was the runner-up to Skubal in a race that honestly could have been a lot closer. Crochet threw 10 more innings than Skubal, and Baseball Prospectus’ WAR model, which considers opponent quality, actually had Crochet at 7.0 vs. Skubal’s 5.9 mark,” Castrovince adds.

“While this isn’t an inventive pick, it’s a sensible one now that Crochet is fully stretched out to a true ace’s workload and in full command of his wipeout stuff. When you strike out roughly one-third of opposing batters as a matter of routine, you’re going to find yourself in the Cy Young conversation,” Castrovince concludes.

But wait. There’s more mound magic in store for Crochet, according to a prediction from Masslive.com’s Chris Cotillo.

“Crochet is the type of starter who seems to have no-hit stuff in most of his outings, and in 2026, he’ll have a real chance at Boston’s first no-no since Jon Lester’s in 2008,” Cotillo writes.

“With so much swing-and-miss in today’s game, Crochet will have one particularly dominant outing at some point when the weather warms up and either finish off a no-hitter or come super close,” Cotillo adds.

It’s those types of games the Red Sox banked on last April when they gave Crochet a six-year, $170 million contract extension, which begins this season.