Pro Picks: 4 road teams are favorites in wild-card weekend
The NFL’s wild-card weekend features a rematch of the 2022 NFC championship game, two division rivals facing off, a team with a losing record playing a home game and four road favorites.
The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and their inconsistent offense are home against Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and the injury-depleted San Francisco 49ers.
Philly ended Purdy’s impressive rookie season three years ago by knocking him out of the NFC title game in the first quarter and then forced him back in to hand off after giving backup Josh Johnson a concussion in a lopsided victory.
The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers as the NFC North rivals meet for the third time in six weeks. They split the season series, each winning at home.
Bryce Young and the 8-9 Carolina Panthers take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams after backing into the playoffs. The Panthers upset the Rams in Carolina on Nov. 30.
The weekend’s other matchups include Bills-Jaguars, Chargers-Patriots and Texans-Steelers.
Pro Picks examines all the games with lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
LOS ANGELES RAMS (12-5) at CAROLINA (8-9)
Line: Rams minus 10
The Panthers stunned the Rams 31-28 at home six weeks ago. Stafford threw two interceptions, including a pick-6. Young had one of his best games, going 15 of 20 for 206 yards, three TDs and no interceptions.
Los Angeles was in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC before consecutive losses to Seattle and Atlanta in Weeks 16 and 17 and fell to fifth. Carolina won its first NFC South title in 10 years when Atlanta beat New Orleans to eliminate Tampa Bay.
The No. 4 seed Panthers are the fifth team to reach the playoffs with a losing record. Those teams are 2-2, including a victory by Carolina’s 7-8-1 division championship team in 2014.
Road teams in the playoffs that have at least four wins more than their opponent are just 2-6 in those games. But these Rams are far superior to this Panthers team. Carolina has a minus-69 point differential, the fourth worst for a playoff team in NFL history.
Los Angeles was 12-5 against the spread, including 6-3 on the road. The Panthers were 10-7 ATS, 5-3 at home.
BEST BET: RAMS: 30-16
GREEN BAY (9-7-1) at CHICAGO (11-6)
Line: Packers minus 1
The Packers beat the Bears 28-21 in Green Bay with Micah Parsons on Dec. 7. Without Parsons at Soldier Field just 13 days later, they led Chicago 13-3 in the fourth quarter before Caleb Williams threw a tying TD pass in the final minute and a game-winner in overtime.
The Bears finished the season with consecutive losses, including at home to Detroit in Week 18, but still earned the NFC’s No. 2 seed because the Eagles rested their starters and lost their final game.
The Packers finished the regular season with four consecutive losses and were locked into the No. 7 seed going into the last game. They rested starters, including Jordan Love, who hasn’t played since a helmet-to-helmet hit in the second meeting against Chicago.
Bears first-year coach Ben Johnson helped Williams develop in his second season and Chicago is in the playoffs for the first time in five years.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur has led the team to the playoffs six times in seven seasons.
The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games vs. Chicago, but they’re just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road games.
The Bears are 10-5 ATS in their past 15 games, but have won just two of their past 16 home games against Green Bay.
The Packers’ Super Bowl hopes ended when Parsons went down.
UPSET SPECIAL: BEARS: 27-24
BUFFALO (12-5) at JACKSONVILLE (13-4)
Line: Bills minus 1
Josh Allen and the Bills didn’t win the AFC East after a five-year run so now they have to take the road route as the No. 6 seed. Buffalo’s Super Bowl hopes have been dashed by Kansas City four times in the past five years. But they don’t have to worry about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this time.
NFL rushing champion James Cook takes some pressure off Allen, the reigning NFL MVP who is still seeking a Super Bowl appearance. Cook is facing the NFL’s best run defense. The Jaguars allowed 85.6 yards per game and no running back got 75 yards against them.
Rookie coach Liam Coen led an impressive nine-win turnaround in Jacksonville, helping Trevor Lawrence have his best season. The underrated Jaguars don’t get the attention they deserve but this team beat No. 1 seed Denver on the road in Week 16 and closed with eight straight wins. Lawrence is facing the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense but the Bills were 28th against the run.
If the game comes down to a long field goal, the advantage goes to the Jaguars. Cam Little set the NFL record with a 68-yarder earlier in the season, made a 67-yarder in Week 18 and nailed one from 70 in the preseason.
Buffalo is 0-2 in the playoffs against Jacksonville.
BILLS: 26-23
SAN FRANCISCO (12-5) at PHILADELPHIA (11-6)
Line: Eagles minus 4 1/2
The 49ers missed an opportunity to get the No. 1 seed and a bye when they lost to Seattle 13-3. This season might have been coach Kyle Shanahan’s best season. The Niners lost their two best players on defense, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, to season-ending injuries. Purdy missed eight games and their group of wide receivers was decimated by injuries. McCaffrey led the offense with an all-everything season. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh held his unit together but now they’ve lost linebacker Tatum Bethune for the rest of the season with a groin injury. Star left tackle Trent Williams (hamstring) and wideout Ricky Pearsall (knee, ankle) will be evaluated later this week to determine whether they can return after missing Week 18.
It’s a tough task going to Philadelphia to face a rested team. The Eagles sat many of their starters and missed an opportunity to get the No. 2 seed. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and the rest of Philadelphia’s star-studded offense were inconsistent under first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo. But Vic Fangio’s defense is one of the league’s best.
EAGLES: 24-20
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (11-6) at NEW ENGLAND (14-3)
Line: Patriots minus 3 1/2
Despite a depleted offensive line, Justin Herbert got the Chargers to this point. Now, he’s seeking his first career playoff win in six years. He’s got a defense that can help him get there. Coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit ranked fifth this season. Edge rushers Khalil Mack and rookie Tuli Tuipulotu and hybrid safety Derwin James are standouts. It’s going to be a big challenge for Drake Maye in his first playoff game.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel knows how to win big games. So does Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. Home-field advantage is a big factor in this one. The Chargers were 9-8 ATS, but 4-1 as underdogs this season. New England was 12-5 ATS.
PATRIOTS: 22-21
HOUSTON (12-5) at PITTSBURGH (10-7)
Line: Texans minus 3
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud have made the playoffs in each of their three years together in Houston, overcoming an 0-3 start this season. The NFL’s No. 1 defense led by Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre makes the Texans a Super Bowl contender despite a No. 5 seed. That’s why they’re a road favorite.
The Steelers won the AFC North when Baltimore’s Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field-goal attempt wide right. Aaron Rodgers was in vintage form in the fourth quarter to lead Pittsburgh without DK Metcalf. T.J. Watt came back and instantly made an impact.
Houston has never won a playoff game on the road, going 0-5. Pittsburgh has lost six straight playoff games but the Steelers have won 23 consecutive home games on Monday night since 1991.
TEXANS: 23-16
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Last week: Straight up: 8-8. Against spread: 9-7.
Overall: Straight up: 184-87-1. Against spread: 143-121-8.
Prime time: Straight up: 32-25-1. Against spread: 26-32.
Best Bet: Straight up: 12-6. Against spread: 8-9-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 13-5. Against spread: 14-4.
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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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