The most honest prediction for 2026: nobody knows what’s next

Every December, business leaders engage in a familiar ritual: offering predictions for the year ahead. I’ve participated in the ritual myself. But after a year defined by AI volatility, climate shocks, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory curveballs, one thing feels clearer than any forecast: Nobody knows what’s next.

For decades, leaders could predict the future based on the past. Planning cycles were stable. Forecasts aged slower. The pace of change allowed companies to map multi-year strategies. That world is gone. Today’s volatility reflects a structural shift in how business operates.

This doesn’t mean leaders should stop planning. It means we need a different kind of plan, built for a world where nothing is certain and adaptability is the real competitive advantage.

The Problem with ‘Certainty’

Six years ago, at the start of the pandemic, the world underwent change on an almost unprecedented scale. Many assumptions that had held true for years were shattered: business models shifted overnight; strategy road maps were suddenly irrelevant; and the future we had been preparing for was already outdated. As long-range predictions failed, organizations focused instead on being able to adjust quickly to evolving conditions .

In the years since, this lesson has only been further underscored by Black Swan events and significant technological advancements. AI is redefining the way we live, study, and work, but we’re racing to fully understand the implications of this change. Quantum computing, once considered distant, is entering near-term planning. Innovation is moving faster than the forecasts meant to describe it.

The real danger is the false sense of confidence forecasts can create. When we assume we know what’s coming, we anchor our strategies to timelines and expectations that may evaporate when reality shifts.

Earlier in my career, I fell into this trap myself. I sometimes waited for perfect clarity before making decisions. Today, I’d rather make the call than stay frozen in place. When I look back, the only choices I regret are the ones I waited too long to make – or didn’t make at all.

Leaders work without the luxury of certainty, and progress depends on getting comfortable with that reality.

Leading Through Contradiction

If long-term forecasts can no longer be the compass by which we navigate our businesses, what replaces it? Every leader I speak with is wrestling with scenarios that seem almost impossible to solve, yet success now depends on exactly that: We’re expected to move fast while acting responsibly, introduce automation while keeping people engaged, and pursue bold innovation while shaping the guardrails that keep it trustworthy.

Leaders must hold these competing demands simultaneously. That’s our job. These tensions are the norm.

A moment in SAP’s own transformation crystallized this reality for me. Early in my tenure as CEO, we announced a major shift from our on-premise business to focus fully on the cloud. It was without doubt the right step for SAP’s long-term future. But I knew it would trigger turbulence in the short term.

When the announcement hit, our stock dropped sharply. The initial negative reaction wasn’t exactly a complete surprise, but that didn’t make it any easier. Our North Star in those early days was the unshakable conviction that it was the right thing to do, and it was my job as the leader of SAP to explain the direction, steady the organization, and maintain the momentum.

It is as much about cultural transformation as it is about technical change. Uncertainty among employees about the transformation can easily and quickly erode morale. That’s why constant communication is so important – always making sure the teams understood not just what we were doing, but why. In times of change, you simply cannot over-communicate.

The New Leadership Mindset for 2026

Looking back, the experience of SAP’s transformation has reaffirmed for me that leadership is about advancing through volatility – not waiting for conditions to stabilize.

So, rather than offer predictions this year, I’m offering a shift in perspective that I hope more leaders embrace: stop chasing certainty. Stop waiting for perfect information. Stop anchoring decisions to forecasts that will never be stable.

A stronger approach is rooted in readiness. Designing systems that flex when assumptions fail. Implementing technology that adapts to realities we can’t yet see. Empowering teams to be able to respond no matter what the future may hold.

The companies that succeed in 2026 won’t be the ones that guess best. They’ll be the ones that strengthened their capacity to adapt and prepared their people and systems for a future that rarely behaves as expected.

Great leadership isn’t about knowing more. It’s about preparing better. And the most honest prediction we can make is that uncertainty is here to stay.

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