College Football Playoff semifinals: Picks for the Peach and Fiesta bowls, and conference revenue breakdown
Welcome to the third installment of the Hotline’s postseason picks against the point spread, which covers the College Football Playoff semifinals. We were 4-7-1 last week with bowl games and the CFP quarterfinals. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Indiana is the betting favorite to win the College Football Playoff, but each semifinalist has a reasonable path to the championship.
Where the money flows, there is far more clarity.
The CFP will distribute $116 million to the participating conferences based on a predetermined formula that rewards both inclusion and success.
Each round includes a payout, which is as follows:
— $4 million for making the field
— $4 million for making the quarterfinals (including teams with byes)
— $6 million for making the semifinals
— $6 million for making the final
(There is no additional payment for winning the title.)
All but $6 million has been accounted for.
The Big Ten and SEC will collect at least $80 million (combined) of the overall pot, and that total will rise to $86 million if Mississippi beats Miami on Thursday in the Fiesta Bowl and advances to the championship.
Here’s the full breakdown:
(Note: Expenses for participating teams are covered separately.)
— The American and Sun Belt each received $4 million for their champions, Tulane and James Madison, respectively, playing in the opening round. The American also received a $4 million bonus resulting from a rule change involving how conference championships were seeded, according to Forbes.
— The Big 12 collected just $8 million for Texas Tech making the field and being seeded into the quarterfinals. (Through two years of the expanded CFP, the Big 12 is the only power conference without a victory.)
— The ACC is faring better than expected, thanks to Miami. With victories in the opening round and the quarterfinals, the Hurricanes have secured at least $14 million. If they win Thursday, the total climbs to $20 million.
— The Big Ten has secured $42 million with three teams in the quarterfinals, two in the semifinals and one — Indiana or Oregon, which meet Friday in the Peach Bowl — guaranteed to reach the championship.
— With five teams in the CFP, three in the quarterfinals and one in the semifinals, the SEC is sitting on $38 million. If Mississippi beats Miami, the conference will overtake the Big Ten and finish with $44 million.
Two more points:
The revenue generated by playoff participants isn’t necessarily shared equally at the conference level. The ACC’s distribution model, for example, differs from the SEC’s approach.
Also, everything changes next season with the start of a new contract cycle with ESPN that pays the CFP approximately $1.3 billion annually.
Instead of spinning off cash based on participation and success, the conferences will receive predetermined amounts, whether they produce one playoff team of five.
The SEC is expected to receive about $23 million per school, followed by the Big Ten (roughly $21 million per school), the ACC ($13.5 million) and the Big 12 ($12.5 million). The Group of Five, which will become the Group of Six with the rebuilt Pac-12, can expect about $2 million per school.
And with that nugget, math class is dismissed.
To the picks …
Season: 83-91-2
Five-star special: 9-8
(All times Pacific)
No. 10 Miami (-3.5) vs. No. 6 Mississippi (Fiesta Bowl)
Kickoff: Thursday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Hurricanes are as stout as anyone on the lines of scrimmage, where championships are won, and possess a veteran quarterback (Carson Beck) and the requisite playmakers. We had expected a game-management glitch to derail Miami in the earlier rounds, but coach Mario Cristobal and his staff have done first-rate work on that front. The Rebels are the closest thing to an underdog within the remaining quartet but possess an intangible that cannot be rivaled: the unified purpose and passion that emerged in the aftermath of coach Lane Kiffin’s pre-CFP departure. If they keep Miami’s pass rushers off quarterback Trinidad Chambliss — Ohio State failed to slow the Hurricanes’ pass rush — the Rebels could conjure their second consecutive upset. Pick: Miami
No. 5 Oregon (+4) vs. No. 1 Indiana (Peach Bowl)
Kickoff: Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: What has changed since Indiana’s overpowering mid-October victory in Eugene, which was more lopsided than the final score suggested (30-20)? The visitors dominated the line of scrimmage, discombobulated quarterback Dante Moore, held the Ducks to 81 yards rushing and stuffed them on third down. The Ducks have improved since then — without an effective running game in Atlanta, they are doomed — but so, too, have the Hoosiers. What impact, if any, will come from Oregon coordinators Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi pulling double duty as head coaches elsewhere? Will Mercedes-Benz Stadium morph into a home game for the Hoosiers? Is Indiana simply a level better than everyone else, with a core that followed coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison? Or is this (finally) Oregon’s year? Pick: Oregon
Straight-up winners: Miami and Oregon
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