For Gen Z, Dry January has become something much bigger

For young people across the United States, “Dry January” is no longer a novelty. For some, it has become a year-round way of life.

Members of Gen Z — those born between 1997 and 2012 — are drinking less alcohol than any generation in decades, part of a broader shift that is reshaping social life, public health and even the alcohol industry itself.

But whether Americans are truly drinking less — or simply drinking differently — depends largely on how the data is measured, and what researchers believe the decline represents.

Long-term Gallup research compiled in 2023 showed the share of adults younger than 35 who said they drink alcohol at all had steadily declined, from 72% in 2001-2003 to 62% in 2021-2023. A Gallup survey conducted in July 2025 found that figure dropped further to 50% — and that just 54% of Americans of legal drinking age reported consuming alcohol at all, the lowest level Gallup has recorded in 90 years.

The 2025 BMO Wine Market Report, an annual industry analysis published by Bank of Montreal that tracks trends shaping the global and U.S. wine industry, cited long-term health survey data from the National Institutes of Health showing similar declines. Over the past 20 years, the share of people ages 18 to 20 who reported drinking alcohol declined from nearly 70% to around 35%. Among those ages 21 to 25, the proportion who drink has remained steady at about 80%, but the self-reported number of servings has fallen by nearly half.

Other data, however, complicates the picture.

According to drinks market research firm IWSR, which shared findings exclusively with Reuters in December 2025, the average number of drinks U.S. adults consume per week has not changed significantly since 1975. The share of Gen Z adults in the U.S. who reported drinking in the previous six months also jumped from 46% in 2023 to 70% in 2025.

Taken together, the findings suggest that fewer Americans may be drinking, but those who do may not be cutting back as dramatically as surveys focused solely on participation imply.

At the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism in Bethesda, Maryland, director George Koob said growing awareness of alcohol’s health risks is one major driver behind the broader decline.

Citing National Cancer Institute data, Koob said an estimated 4% to 6% of cancer cases in the U.S. are now attributed to alcohol use, making it the third-most preventable cause of cancer, behind tobacco and obesity.

“If you feel better when you’re not drinking, then you should listen to your body because it’s trying to tell you something,” Koob said. “And I think these young people are doing that.”

Still, while many experts agree the decline carries clear health benefits, some are reluctant to celebrate it outright.

UC Berkeley psychology professor Keanan Joyner, who has studied alcohol and substance use disorders for a decade, said he has grown increasingly concerned about what reduced drinking may signal about young people’s social lives.

“I am trying to get these kids to consider going out more instead of studying all the time,” Joyner said of his students. “They’re 19. They need to get out.”

Joyner pointed to a longer-running trend of declining social connection among young adults, as described in the U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek H. Murthy’s 2023 report, “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation.” The report found that between 2003 and 2020, social isolation increased by 24 hours per month for the average American, while time spent engaging with friends fell by 20 hours per month.

“There’s less socializing that’s happening,” Joyner said.

At Stanford University, psychiatry professor Anna Lembke, author of “Dopamine Nation: Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence,” echoed those concerns, cautioning against assuming less alcohol automatically means better well-being.

“I wouldn’t say young people are healthier,” Lembke said. “Young people these days have a different set of problems and a different set of drugs they’re trading alcohol out for.”

Lembke pointed to rising dependence on digital media and a subset of Gen Z that rarely leaves home. “There are a lot of problems in turning to digital media to meet our emotional needs,” she said.

The social consequences could be profound.

In a survey conducted in November 2024, global research firm GWI found that 80% of nearly 2,000 Gen Z adults reported feeling lonely in the past year, compared with just 45% of baby boomers.

“My heart breaks for these kids,” Joyner said, adding that even undergraduates working in his lab appear deeply disconnected.

Some researchers, like Lembke, have questioned whether alcohol is simply being replaced by other substances, which would undercut the assumption that young people are making healthier choices. But available data suggests that may not be happening — at least not at scale.

The 2024 National Survey on Drug Use and Health found that cannabis use has increased among adults older than 26, while declining among 18- to 25-year-olds. Use has dropped among high school students as well.

In December 2025, the University of Michigan released results from its annual Monitoring the Future survey of more than 20,000 students nationwide, showing record levels of abstinence. About 82% of 10th graders and 66% of 12th graders reported not using cannabis, alcohol or nicotine in the previous 30 days — the highest levels in the survey’s 50-plus-year history.

As drinking declines, the effects are rippling through the alcohol industry.

In the Bay Area, Sonoma County wineries saw an average 14% drop in tasting-room visitors in 2024, according to Wine Business Monthly’s 2025 Tasting Room Survey. Visitor numbers fell an additional 8.4%, according to Community Benchmark, which tracks tasting-room performance across the wine industry. In November 2025, Sonoma County Vintners, a nonprofit representing 250 wineries, underwent a major restructuring, cutting jobs amid declining wine sales.

Nationally, the New York Times reported in December that Jim Beam paused production for a year at its flagship distillery in Clermont, Kentucky. Brown-Forman, the maker of Jack Daniel’s and Old Forester, laid off 650 employees at a time when demand is falling.

Alcohol sales overall dropped about 5% in the past year, the Times reported, citing reduced consumption and added pressure from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, particularly on exports to Canada.

At the same time, demand for nonalcoholic alternatives has surged — even as most consumers continue to drink alcohol in moderation rather than abandoning it altogether. More than 90% of people who drink nonalcoholic beer also consume regular beer, Gallup data shows.

NielsenIQ data shows nonalcoholic beer now accounts for more than 3% of U.S. beer sales, up from just 0.3% in 2018, as sales of nonalcoholic beer, wine and spirits together approached $925 million annually in U.S. off-premise stores as of August.

Athletic Brewing, the country’s leading nonalcoholic beer producer, ranked last year as the eighth-largest craft brewer by volume in the U.S., according to the Brewers Association. About 20% of Michelin-starred restaurants nationwide now carry Athletic’s products, co-founder Bill Shufelt said.

“It’s a trend that’s very early in its adoption,” Shufelt said.

Tate Huffard, founder of Sausalito-based Best Day Brewing, said customers are embracing “zebra striping” — alternating alcoholic and nonalcoholic drinks in the same outing.

“Someone will come in, they’ll have a nice tequila to start,” Huffard said, “and then they’ll have our NA Mexican lager.”

Even mocktails are evolving beyond sugary stand-ins.

A few years ago, Yasmin Santos launched Altar Native, a San Francisco-based nonalcoholic bar catering service, offering drinks made with plants such as kava, kanna and blue lotus — ingredients traditionally associated with relaxation and mood enhancement.

“People just absolutely loved it,” Santos said.

After appearing on NPR’s “How I Built This,” demand for her products surged. Santos said she hopes the rise of nonalcoholic beverages can help draw people — especially young adults — back into shared social spaces.

“We’re moving away from alcohol,” she said, “and closer to authentic connection.”