Tech stocks will stall, electricity will get cheaper and . . . the U.S. will win the World Cup? 8 bold business predictions for 2026

I am not clairvoyant and have no crystal ball. But I’ve got some predictions for 2026. 

I learned about predictions from a master of the craft: Byron Wien, a market strategist who rose to Wall Street prominence in the 1990s for his annual “Ten Surprises” list. Back in the day, I spent several weeks shadowing Wien as a reporter, and the lessons have long stuck with me.

Wien said that the prediction game wasn’t about being right. It was about identifying trends. He knew many of his “surprises” would never come to pass, at least not in the extreme form that he shared. But they sparked dialogue and got people to confront their assumptions. And every now and then, he’d hit something spot-on. 

In the spirit of Wien’s lists, I’m sharing my own predicted “surprises” for the year ahead. Consider them provocations for discussion. And we’ll see how it all plays out. 

I’m reminded of an insight Wien shared privately with me, as he ticked through the holdings in his personal investment portfolio. He said that he owned Investment A for Reason A, and Investment B for Reason B. And then he said that he owned Investment C “as a hedge against everything else I believe.” He knew that he’d be wrong about some things, and was prepared to be wrong about everything. I’ve yet to find a better approach for navigating a chaotic world. 

Now, on to the predictions! 

1. Tech stocks will stall 

No one—and I mean no one—has a consistent record of correctly calling the stock market. But just this once, I have a feeling.

Yes, AI profits at Nvidia are astounding. Yes, the dominance of hyperscalers like Google and Amazon and Microsoft continues to grow. But the money being plowed into AI capabilities right now is not yet yielding significant incremental value for AI end users: the customers of hyperscalers.

So while a narrow group of very rich companies are pouring billions into AI development (and driving those huge numbers at Nvidia), it is not yet a tide that raises all boats. For tech stock valuations to climb from here, the value generated by artificial intelligence needs to broaden. If other tech cycles are a guide, there’s usually a period of consolidation at some point—a plateau at best, a significant crash at worst. I’d bet on the former, in part because AI investment is largely being pulled from cash rather than leveraged by borrowing. 

Before you rush to sell all your tech stocks, a caveat: More than 15 years ago, early in my tenure as editor of Fast Company, we ran a cover with the headline “Open Season on Apple.” We outlined how competitors were coming at the company from all sides, and the risks that the still-in-charge Steve Jobs faced. Our analysis was keen. Our concern was flat-out wrong. 

2. AI will be an excuse for layoffs more than a cause of them

The workforce will be dramatically reset by the expanded use of AI tools. But not in the next 12 months. For now, tech-driven workplace changes remain on the periphery. Despite the worry and uncertainty, AI so far has made workers more valuable rather than redundant. Still, that won’t deter many businesses from citing AI as a rationale for 2026 restructurings that will have more to do with addressing overexpansion or evolving business practices than with AI bots taking over human jobs.

By pointing to AI as the culprit, business leaders will have public cover for their activities (“it is a necessary adjustment to a new reality”) and engage the ardor of investors (“we are becoming an AI-first enterprise”). Identifying which layoffs are truly tech-related and which are in response to failed business strategies will become a schadenfreude-based parlor game. 

3. Cyber hacks will reach crisis level 

When you talk to the CEOs of major cybersecurity firms, they extol AI as a security enhancer: a tool to identify never-before-seen attacks in never-before-possible ways. They acknowledge that “bad actors” are increasingly using AI in their exploits. But they contend that AI protection tools are more sophisticated—essentially, “our AI is better than their AI.” 

I have no evidence to undercut that assertion. But it is also true that not every business or individual has the protection of a cutting-edge cybersecurity system. It is said that AI raises the floor on capabilities, and it certainly lowers costs—which means we are in for more attacks, better attacks, and more disruption. Only those outfits that can raise the ceiling on cyber defense will be better protected. And if those cyber pros saying “our AI is better” are wrong? Then mind your bank accounts, crypto wallets, and power grids!

4. Electricity costs will drop

AI data centers have dominated headlines about energy prices and energy availability. But that masks a larger trend toward electrification globally, at a scale that far exceeds AI’s demands. A decade’s worth of renewable energy investments around the world (particularly by China) is creating a baseline of energy self-sufficiency in parts of the developing world.

In developed countries, modernization of electrical grids will yield significant efficiency gains. And whatever your views on the environmental impact, the Trump administration’s embrace of more fossil fuel drilling will increase supplies. So is all the media coverage of data-center power demands overblown? Hate to say it, but “yes.” 

5. U.S. immigration numbers will rise

U.S. immigration policy has long been hostage to politics. The vast majority of Americans want to simultaneously protect the U.S. border from illegal crossings and facilitate entry for approved newcomers. But that commonsense approach has been stymied by partisan posturing. Yet just maybe, 2026 offers a window to square that circle. Donald Trump, by virtue of his hardline border position (and deportations), has the unprecedented opportunity to reset policy in a healthier direction. Here’s why he might embrace that opportunity: 

• The economy benefits from the low-cost labor of newcomers.
• Silicon Valley is desperate to remain a magnet for worldwide tech talent.
• U.S. voters in both parties support a commonsense mix of strong borders and open-entry rules, especially among Latino voters who supported Trump but have become disillusioned. 
• A balanced remaking of immigration policy would defang a key Democratic critique and rallying cry.

6. MAHA will succumb to science

Government health websites have recently added language that connects vaccines to autism—a core tenet of U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., despite bare scientific evidence. But there are other signals that, as Kennedy learns more about how the health research communities actually work, he is becoming more open to reconsidering some of his assumptions. Vaccines and autism may remain a bright line for MAHA, but as 2026 unfolds, the value of the FDA and the CDC and other public health entities will take a growing role in U.S. health policy. 

7. Nuclear power will solve climate change

We all want a silver bullet for intractable challenges, and they rarely exist. But there is a chance that breakthroughs in nuclear power can do just that when it comes to climate change. There have been important advances in using nuclear fusion to generate power—the safer, less discussed, and more prospective cousin of nuclear fission, which is responsible for all current nuclear reactors (as well as nuclear weapons).

In 2026, the advances in nuclear fusion are poised to reach a tipping point, opening the way to broadscale commercial applications. While it will take years for a nuclear fusion industry to establish itself and measurably impact the direction of global climate change, we will look back at 2026 as the beginning. At least I hope so!

8. The U.S. will win the World Cup!

Let’s be clear: I am not predicting that Team USA will win the World Cup. That would be awesome—but it’s unrealistic, given how the U.S. men’s national soccer team has performed in international play. But as a host of the World Cup, the U.S. as a nation will make the most of a tremendous opportunity to reestablish the brand of the United States on the global stage. After the disruptions of tariff wars, the U.S. brand is in an uncomfortable position heading into 2026. What the World Cup offers is a window for the world on what makes the U.S. special, desirable, and worthy of global esteem. 

Am I talking about propaganda? Maybe some might see it that way; I like to think of it as patriotism. The World Cup is a test case for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, the ultimate spectacle to highlight America’s leadership model globally. Here’s hoping the World Cup sets the right tone.