REBECCA GRANT: The strategic logic of Operation Absolute Resolve
President Donald Trump has taken a bold step in his campaign to yank Venezuela back from the brink – and to keep China out of the Western Hemisphere.
Operation Absolute Resolve was a stunning tactical success by U.S. military forces. Now comes the hard part: remodeling Venezuela without creating a quagmire.
Nabbing illegitimate president Nicolas Maduro was another masterpiece orchestrated by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan "Razin" Caine. Like the Operation Midnight Hammer’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, this operation involved over 150 aircraft and built on America’s complete air dominance. Caine credited the "years of experience hunting for terrorists." Intelligence agencies mapped every moment of Maduro’s routine – down to his pets.
"We watched, we waited, we prepared," Caine explained Saturday. U.S. ships and aircraft were poised on a trigger alert for days. Then, the weather broke, with coastal fog lifting just enough for "the most skilled aviators in the world" to fly in to get Maduro, as joint forces laid down a corridor of layered effects.
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U.S. forces achieved total surprise. Down went Venezuela’s Russian-supplied air defenses, as the U.S. Space Force and U.S. Cyber Command blanked out and blinded Venezuela’s military coordination to "create a pathway" for the helicopters, in Caine’s words. Special Forces helicopters inserted forces into the Maduro compound. On foot, U.S. forces grabbed Maduro just before the dictator fled.
"He tried to get to his safe place, but he was unable to close the door," recounted Trump.
This was no piece of cake. The extraction forces were in hostile airspace at 1:01 AM Eastern time. It was 3:29 AM before the extraction force helicopters carrying Maduro fought their way out after multiple self-defense engagements. That’s a lot of tense time on the ground. Fortunately, they had complete tactical air cover. U.S. Air Force F-22s, F-35s, and B-1 bombers, were part of the posse, along with the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford’s F/A-18EF Super Hornets, EA-18G electronic attack planes and E-2D Hawkeye radar planes. So were what Caine described as "a lot of drones" and no doubt a variety of "black" Special Forces aircraft.
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Via those drones, and other friendly-force indicators, Trump watched every moment of the raid unfold.
Imagine the shock of the Chinese delegation in Caracas. Xi Jinping had just sent diplomats to check up on the $67 billion China has invested in Venezuela. Too late. They were guests of honor at the last cocktail party hosted by Maduro at the Miraflores Presidential Palace hours before the airstrikes began. Then they saw another jaw-dropping display of U.S. military precision, with tactics that can be carried out "against any foe, anywhere in the world," Caine said.
For all the military success, Trump’s Operation Absolute Resolve will ultimately be judged on how Venezuela turns out. Americans remember the words of Colin Powell: "You break it, you own it." Also called the Pottery Barn rule, the advice was given by the then-secretary of state to President George W. Bush prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It wasn’t followed.
The difference with Trump is already apparent. Trump believes a successful partnership with the U.S. can "make the people of Venezuela rich, independent and safe."
Yes, Trump was mad at Venezuela for the "human destruction" caused by drugs and criminal gangs. "They sent everybody bad into the United States," Trump said Saturday. Besides, "They took all of our oil long ago. We want it back," Trump said Dec. 17.
But Trump’s policy motivations are also far-sighted. His team appears to have been planning Venezuela’s next chapter for a long time. They gave Maduro a chance to surrender. Foolish Maduro turned down "multiple generous offers" and decided to "act like a wild man," as Rubio said on Saturday.
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Moving on, Rubio has already talked at length with Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. She was "gracious" but "had no choice," Trump said. Rodriguez can cooperate, perhaps bringing Maduro’s former henchmen along with her, or there is a second strike at the ready, according to Trump.
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Next, Trump plans to entrust Venezuela to those who know it well: the oil men. With 303 billion barrels of reserves, Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia or any other country in the world. However, exports are paltry. Some of the oil is difficult to extract, and oil production infrastructure decayed under socialism and Maduro. Consider the long-term advantage of U.S. partnership and investment – and the strategic logic of Operation Absolute Resolve falls into place.
Make no mistake: Trump’s move on Venezuela goes far beyond boosting oil production. Venezuela is a crucial strategic chess piece in what is shaping up to be a decades-long, multipolar competition with China. In this global struggle, a free, prosperous Venezuela is a valuable asset. Or it will be if Trump’s team can create that "proper, judicious transition" he described at the Mar-a-Lago briefing.
Trump wants Venezuela on America’s side.