Ranking Patriots’ Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 18
The New England Patriots know they’ll be hosting a playoff game at Gillette Stadium.
Who? When? Why?
It’ll remain to be seen, as their final regular season matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 is just one of several factors that will ultimately determine the answer to those questions — so let’s take a look at the others and determine which are the best- and worst-case playoff scenarios for the folks at One Patriot Place.
1. First-Round BYE
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos lose (vs. LAC)
I don’t think it’s necessary to spell this one out for you — earning an extra week to get healthy and securing home field throughout the playoffs is the goal of every single team prior to the start of the season.
The Patriots’ ability to even be in a position where that is a possibility is impressive, but they won’t receive very much help in that effort. The Los Angeles Chargers have already announced that they will rest starting quarterback Justin Herbert for Sunday’s matchup with the Denver Broncos.
2. vs. Los Angeles Chargers
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ) OR Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Colts win (vs. HOU)
Los Angeles’ decision to rest starters all but points to the fact that it prefers playing New England over the likes of the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens.
New England likely feels the same way…
The Chargers will not only be without offensive linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, but will enter that potential matchup coming off a brutal stretch in which they faced the Philadelphia Eagles (overtime win), Kansas City Chiefs (win), Dallas Cowboys (win), Houston Texans (loss) and Broncos.
3. vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Chargers win (vs. DEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Texans win (vs. IND)
The Jaguars are absolutely rolling, having ripped off seven consecutive wins entering the regular season finale. Jacksonville also has just four total losses one the season, while only one came by more than one score.
The Patriots won’t want to be playing a team with that kind of momentum.
4. vs. Buffalo Bills
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC) and Bills lose (vs. NYJ) OR Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Jaguars win (vs. TEN) and Texans win (vs. IND)
I’d listen to an argument on either side, as you could either be in favor or extremely against playing the same team three times in the same season. I always end up viewing it as a coin flip, however, as both teams have the same level of familiarity and –at least in this case — have proven they can beat the other.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the scariest player you could end up facing, though, so this one falls near the bottom of the list.
5. vs. Houston Texans
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Texans loss (vs. IND), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Jaguars win (vs. TEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ) OR Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Chargers win (vs. DEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Colts win (vs. HOU)
The Texans are absolutely terrifying.
Houston’s defense is the scariest unit you could possibly face, ranking first in points allowed per game (16.6) and yards allowed per game (27.4), second in turnover margin (plus-12), and sixth in sack percentage (8.38%).
The Patriots need to take care of Drake Maye if they want any chance to make a run, and it’ll be too tall a task if they’re forced to do so against the likes of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.