Free Agent Profile: Lucas Giolito, SP
Lucas Giolito, SP
Position: SP B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 31 (07/14/1994)
2025 Traditional Stats: 26 G (26 starts), 145 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 10-4, 121 K, 56 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 120 ERA+, 19.7 K%, 9.1% BB%, 4.99 xERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.59 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR
Rundown
From 2019 to 2022, Lucas Giolito was a stalwart at the front end of the White Sox’s starting rotation. However, a disastrous finish to the 2023 season saw his stock plummet, leading him to sign a one-year deal with the Red Sox with a player option for 2025. Giolito’s Boston tenure got off on the wrong foot, as he underwent elbow surgery in spring training of 2024, causing him to miss the full season.
Giolito finally made his Red Sox debut at the end of April in 2025 and turned in some solid work, posting a 3.41 ERA over 145 innings. His flyball rate dropped from 29% in 2023 to 27% in 2025, which was encouraging considering he allowed a major league-worst 41 homers in 2023. His opponents’ OPS dropped from .799 to .685, and he was able to complete at least five innings in 17 of his 26 starts. Thanks to reaching 140 innings, Giolito was able to convert his club option into a mutual option, which allowed him to hit the open market at the season’s end.
However, Giolito produced some concerning underlying metrics. His strikeout rate plummeted to 19.7%, a concerning number for a pitcher who struck out at least 200 batters in three of his previous four full seasons. That low strikeout rate was coupled with a 9.1% walk rate, giving him an underwhelming 2.16 strikeout-to-walk ratio, his lowest mark since his dreadful 2018 season. Giolito also surrendered an average exit velocity of 90.1 miles per hour, the highest he’s allowed in a full season. His opponents’ .267 xBA, .342 xwOBA, and .455 xSLG all far exceed their actual marks, and his 4.99 xERA, 4.17 FIP and 4.59 xFIP don’t paint a pretty picture. Giolito’s health concerns came back at the end of the season, too, as he was left off Boston’s Wild Card Series roster with elbow irritation, though he didn’t need surgery.
Part of the reason Giolito was able to succeed with subpar metrics was his ability to limit damage with men on base – he held opponents to a .596 OPS with runners in scoring position, and that number dropped to .417 with two outs. Additionally, his 76.7% strand rate was his highest mark since 2019.
Giolito uses a four-pitch mix – a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup and curveball. His four-seamer showed a huge improvement from 2023, going from a negative-10 run value to a plus-5, though it was still hit hard (48.1% hard-hit rate, .507 xSLG) and didn’t generate whiffs at a high rate (16.7%). Giolito’s slider produced the most encouraging results of his pitches, recording a 32.1% whiff rate and holding opponents to a .333 SLG. Giolito’s changeup held opponents to just a .194 batting average, but also surrendered seven home runs, more than any of his pitches.
Contract
Giolito declined his end of a $19 million mutual option for the 2026 season. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he will receive a two-year deal worth $32 million.
Recommendation: Worth Checking In
The Mets still need to shore up their starting rotation, but they haven’t shown they are willing to give a long-term contract to any arm on the market. Giolito is no longer an ace and won’t command a big contract in terms of length or salary, but he comes with concerns surrounding his health and his underlying data. Giolito is more established than the arms David Stearns brought in ahead of 2025 (Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning and Clay Holmes), but teams should proceed with caution in negotiations. It couldn’t hurt to try to sign Giolito, but he shouldn’t be at the top of the Mets’ board.
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