Rising Insecurity on Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Threatens China’s Interests in Central Asia

Escalating violence along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border has put Chinese citizens and investments at risk, raising Beijing’s concerns over regional stability and security, Al Jazeera reports.

Cited by Al Jazeera news agency, escalating clashes along the Tajikistan–Afghanistan border have raised Beijing’s concerns, as China’s citizens and investments increasingly face security threats in the region.

Tajik authorities reported multiple armed incursions from Afghanistan territory in recent months, leaving more than a dozen people dead, including Chinese nationals working on remote infrastructure and mining projects.

Earlier in December, a drone strike targeted a Chinese gold mining company, while gunfire at a state-run Chinese enterprise killed several Chinese workers, highlighting the growing dangers for foreign investors.

China, Tajikistan’s largest creditor and key economic partner, has heavily invested in border-region infrastructure, roads, and mining. Recent attacks have undermined confidence in the safety of Chinese personnel and assets.

Most attacks reportedly originate from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, a complex and highly insecure area. Local dissatisfaction, coupled with Taliban efforts to suppress poppy cultivation, has further strained regional security.

In response to the violence, the Chinese embassy in Dushanbe advised citizens and companies to leave border areas and urged Tajik authorities to take “all necessary measures” to protect people and investments, Al Jazeera reported.

Analysts suggest the attacks, though unclaimed, resemble the operational patterns of ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province), which appears to target foreign nationals to challenge the Taliban’s credibility as a regional security provider.

Tajik officials have criticized the Taliban for repeated failures to meet international security commitments, demanding formal apologies and guarantees to secure the border.

Observers warn that the intensifying border violence and attacks on Chinese interests complicate regional security, placing pressure on the Taliban, neighboring countries, and China’s strategic calculations.

The Taliban expressed “regret” over the incidents, attributing them to unidentified groups and insisting that Afghanistan under their control poses no threat to neighboring countries, reaffirming adherence to the Doha agreement.

The escalation along the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border underscores the fragile security balance in Central Asia, highlighting the intertwined challenges facing China, the Taliban, and regional stability.

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