NFL picks: Jaguars looking like Super Bowl contenders, should have their way with Colts
LAS VEGAS — In what easily could have been viewed as a playoff game, the Jaguars went to Denver and proved their mettle as a postseason force to fear.
Houston vs. Jacksonville, anyone, for the AFC crown?
The Jaguars stepped before the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak and never flinched. They trailed 10-7 early in the second quarter and answered with a touchdown and a field goal.
Tied at 17, the Jags answered with two second-half touchdowns, adding a fourth-quarter field goal for icing.
The Broncos had the record and winning streak, but in the power rankings of several respected handicappers, the Jaguars were the higher-rated team before the first snap.
Denver didn’t fool us, either. It came in at a sterling 12-2, but its ATS record was underwater at 6-7-1. Of those 11 successive victories, eight were against teams with losing records.
The game presented a true test for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and his teammates, and they flailed. Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence flew back to Florida with the flowers.
Jacksonville had won five in a row and six of seven. In those five consecutive wins, it averaged more than 354 yards to 244 for opponents, outscoring them 171-72.
In those first four triumphs, Lawrence threw eight touchdown passes. In the fifth, a 48-20 thrashing of the Jets, he collected 330 passing yards and five touchdown throws.
In Denver, the Jags accumulated 346 yards, and Lawrence went 23-for-36 for 279 yards, three TDs and no picks. Plus, he had a short run into the end zone.
With a 0.320 points-per-play (PPP) margin at TeamRankings over their last three games, the Jaguars are running better than any other NFL team right now.
A fantastic 8-2 start by the Colts had started to fizzle (with two consecutive defeats) by the time quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending right Achilles tendon injury in a loss at Jacksonville.
They now have dropped two more games and have used three other quarterbacks, even yanking 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement.
Rookie Riley Leonard mopped up at the end of Monday night’s debacle for the underthrowing Rivers.
Jacksonville beat the Colts 36-19 in Florida three weeks ago, and whoever starts for Indy against the Jags is in trouble.
The Jaguars’ pass defense shines over the Colts’ middling secondary, which was exposed against the 49ers.
Lawrence, Jacksonville’s No. 1 draft choice in 2021, is 1-1 in the playoffs. Many probably believed the acclaimed Clemson product would have accomplished much more by now in the postseason.
Consider him, as of Sunday, finally graduating into the upper echelon of the league’s field generals. Lawrence and the Jaguars have a bite that will be difficult to tame in the playoffs.
Best bet
JAGUARS at COLTS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Jaguars by 6½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 11-4/10-4-1; Colts 8-7/8-6-1.
Pick: Jaguars 38, Colts 6.
Play: Jaguars -6½.
How Miech’s plays fared
Last week Overall
Best bet 0-1 6-10
Top plays 2-0-1 26-21-1
All plays 11-4-1 109-123-5
7-point tease 13-3 169-66-2
Top plays
TEXANS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network.
Line: Chargers by 2½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 10-5/8-7; Chargers 11-4/8-6-1.
Outlook: The Texans own the highest AFC power rating, thanks to that stout defense we’ve highlighted. This is a severe test for the Chargers, who suffered those odd losses to the Giants and Commanders and barely beat the Dolphins.
Pick: Texans 23, Chargers 13.
Play: Texans +2½.
SAINTS at TITANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Saints by 2½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 5-10/7-8; Titans 3-12/7-8.
Outlook: That the Saints are favored on the road says all anyone needs to know about this Titans franchise. What’s more, shucks, we have to go with QB Tyler Shough (pronounced SHUCK) to earn his fourth consecutive win.
Pick: Saints 21, Titans 7.
Play: Saints -2½.
PATRIOTS at JETS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 13½. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 12-3/9-6; Jets 3-12/8-7.
Outlook: In play-design and player-productivity differential and passing efficiency, these teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum, according to the metrics in the QC Eye newsletter. The Patriots are 11-3 in their last 14 at the Jets.
Pick: Patriots 28, Jets 6.
Play: Patriots -13½.
Other plays
BEARS at 49ERS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 51½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 11-4/10-4-1; 49ers 11-4/10-5.
Outlook: The Bears own the third-worst per-rush allowance (5.2 yards) on the road. Niners RB Christian McCaffrey will be a pest. He’ll come close to becoming the first NFLer with two seasons of 1,000 yards rushing and receiving.
Pick: 49ers 27, Bears 16. Play: 49ers -3.
RAVENS at PACKERS
Time: 7 p.m. Saturday, Peacock.
Line: Packers by 2½. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 7-8/5-10; Packers 9-5-1/6-8-1.
Outlook: Has any recent squad showed so much promise after two games before collapsing so miserably than Green Bay? If the Packers get a bowl bid, they should follow Notre Dame’s footsteps and decline. Can head coach Matt LaFleur survive this?
Pick: Ravens 24, Packers 12.
Play: Ravens +2½.
CARDINALS at BENGALS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Bengals by 7. Total: 53½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 3-12/6-9; Bengals 5-10/7-8.
Outlook: Bengals QB Joe Burrow awoke Sunday with 309 passing yards, four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Miami helped out by giving the ball away three times, and the Cardinals have turned it over at least once in six of their last seven.
Pick: Bengals 20, Cardinals 10.
Play: Bengals -7.
SEAHAWKS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Seahawks by 7½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 12-3/11-4; Panthers 8-7/9-6.
Outlook: The Seahawks have won five of their last six in Carolina. The last three have seen 166 total points scored, a bit more than 55 per game. We’ll opt to play with the total rather than tangle with a team that’s on such a precarious number.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Panthers 21.
Play: Over 42½.
STEELERS at BROWNS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Steelers by 3½. Total: 33½.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 9-6/8-7; Browns 3-12/6-9.
Outlook: Four squads do not have a single negative pock mark among the six points-per-play-margin (PPP) categories rated by TeamRankings, and the Steelers are one of them. QB Aaron Rodgers has an 11th-ranked passer rating of 98.8.
Pick: Steelers 23, Browns 13.
Play: Steelers -3½.
BUCCANEERS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Buccaneers by 5½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 7-8/5-9-1; Dolphins 6-9/7-8.
Outlook: Eight teams own negative PPP figures in the six categories that TeamRankings rates, and the Dolphins are in that sorry group. Review tape of the blasting at home by the Bengals, and all Fins fans should be embarrassed.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Dolphins 13.
Play: Buccaneers -5½.
GIANTS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Raiders by 1½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-13/7-7-1; Raiders 2-13/5-9-1.
Outlook: Both of these squads have lost their last nine games, a measure of ignominy that’s almost difficult to fathom. Vegas rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, coming off a career game (188 total yards, two touchdowns), tilts this outcome to the home team.
Pick: Raiders 17, Giants 6.
Play: Raiders -1½.
EAGLES at BILLS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Bills by 1½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 10-5/9-6; Bills 11-4/7-8.
Outlook: The Eagles have dropped three of their last five in Buffalo. The Bills have won four in a row, five of their last six and seven of nine. They’re 6-1 at home and, since 2021, are No. 1 in the NFL with a 38-8 (.826) record in their own barn.
Pick: Bills 27, Eagles 13.
Play: Bills -1½.
RAMS at FALCONS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Rams by 7½. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 11-4/10-5; Falcons 6-9/7-7-1.
Outlook: Include the Falcons among those eight teams with negative PPP margins in those six categories. In fact, the Rams are the
No. 3 road team in PPP-margin (0.181), while the Falcons are the 31st-ranked home team (-0.124).
Pick: Rams 26, Falcons 9.
Play: Rams -7½.