Horse racing column: Santa Anita opener marks the start of a pivotal year

ARCADIA — Opening day at Santa Anita shapes up as a fitting start to a season that could reveal the future of California horse racing.

The 11-race card Sunday – delayed two days by the rain – is packed with six graded stakes, including a competitive edition of the Malibu Stakes and the appearance of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Nysos in the Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes.

That means fans will get an early start on answering the question that looms over 2026, namely just how strong the sport at its highest levels here is going to be in an era of shrinking purses and signs of diminished prestige for the circuit’s big races.

“I think we’ll know this (upcoming) year what the state of California racing is,” Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said in a recent interview.

By one standard, the races starting at 11 a.m. Sunday are not as good as, even, a year ago. On Dec. 26, 2024, six horses with Grade I victories were entered in Santa Anita’s opening-day races, and five ran; Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan performed disappointingly at 3-1 odds in the Malibu, but Johannes won at 3-10 in the San Gabriel Stakes and She Feels Pretty romped at 3-5 in the American Oaks. On Dec. 28, 2025, though, just two horses with Grade I victories in their past performances are entered, Nysos and Goodwood Stakes winner Nevada Beach set to square off in the Pincay.

Santa Anita general manager Nate Newby looks at the upside.

“Sometimes when you have the superstar, (it) scares (the competition) away and you get a short field. Honestly, businesswise, it probably is better to get a bigger, competitive field with quality but not a standout,” Newby said on the phone this week.

In any case, opening days are a small sample. Keener judgments about the direction of California racing will be made as Santa Anita’s Classic Meet continues through April 5, followed by its Hollywood Meet through June 14.

This will be the first full calendar year after the closures of tracks in Northern California left all of the state’s racing at Santa Anita, Del Mar and Los Alamitos, pending a prospective harness meet in Fresno next fall and efforts to revive thoroughbred racing at northern county fairs.

Purses for sub-stakes-level races will rise at Santa Anita’s new meet. Maiden special weight races will be worth $70,000, up from $60,000 a year ago. Owners of California-bred horses winning maiden races will receive $12,500 bonuses, up from $10,000 in 2025, though down from $17,500 in 2024.

Purses at the stakes level, meanwhile, will take some hits. Sunday’s San Gabriel slips to $100,000 from $200,000 a year ago. Two important races for 3-year-old Derby prospects are slashed similarly, the Feb. 7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes from $200,000 to $100,000 and the March 7 San Felipe Stakes from $300,000 to $200,000.

Also cut are the gradings for eight Santa Anita stakes, determined by a committee of the Lexington, Ky.-based Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. They include the March 7 Frank E. Kilroe Mile, going from Grade I to Grade II, and the San Gabriel and the April 19 Santa Maria, each going from Grade II to Grade III.

Santa Anita has revived two dormant stakes, the Jan. 19 Astra and the Providencia, but overall the trend is down.

It comes down to economics and the disadvantage California faces. States like Kentucky and Arkansas are able to supplement their purses with casino revenue, helping them attract top horses, trainers and jockeys. The California racing industry’s efforts to match those states by running so-called historical racing machines, which allow slot-machine-like betting on recorded races, have been tripped up by internal conflicts and the political power of Native American casino operators.

Talk like that would make other sports’ fans’ eyes glaze over, because there’s a less obvious connection between economics and the games we watch. The proper response to headlines about, say, NFL, NBA and MLB attendance and TV ratings is, “I’ll care about that when I’m a league commissioner or network president.”

But for racing fans, there’s a clear connection between money and the quality of the action they’re cheering and betting on. Stagnant or smaller purses in Southern California could mean fewer great horses, great jockeys and great trainers will compete here. It also could mean fewer good races because of circumstances like in November at Del Mar, when the Grade III Bob Hope Stakes for 2-year-olds was canceled because only three horses were entered.

All of which can mean less attractive gambling, which in turn means yet-lower parimutuel handle, which leads back to smaller purses – and the downward spiral continues.

“I hate to see when they keep downgrading stakes in California,” Baffert said at his barn this week. “It affects the quality of horses sent here, and that affects the handle. The gamblers want a good product.”

Said Newby of California racing’s strength: “I think everybody is watching it closely. Horse population is always a good barometer, and we’re still just over 2,400 (thoroughbreds stabled at Santa Anita, Los Alamitos and the San Luis Rey Downs training center). That’s a solid horse population.”

Mark Glatt, leading trainer at the 2024-25 Santa Anita Classic Meet, doesn’t like the trends.

“The overall quality in some of these (stakes) races isn’t as strong as it used to be,” Glatt, who runs 3-1 morning-line favorite Formula Rossa in Sunday’s La Brea Stakes for 2-year-old fillies, said Monday morning at Clockers’ Corner. “If you bump the purses back up, the (good) horses will be here.”

Santa Anita’s opening-day card has good horses, including Baffert’s Barnes, Cornucopian, Madaket Road, Midland Money and Goal Oriented in the Malibu and Nysos and Nevada Beach in the Pincay; and runners sent by eastern trainers George Weaver, Riley Mott and Cherie DeVaux despite FedEx’s suspension of horse flights because of the grounding of MD-11 aircraft’s following a crash in Louisville on Nov. 4; and the nation’s three top-earning jockeys of 2025, Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat and Jose Ortiz, all in from back east for the day.

Newby said he expects a crowd of 35,000-40,000 in spite of the rescheduling.

But what’s the future? Fans should watch to see if more, or fewer, powerful barns, talented jockeys and promising 2- and 3-year-olds run here; whether race fields and competitiveness rise or fall; and whether betting on horses remains more fascinating than betting on other sports.

On Monday, before the rain clouds arrived, trainer Peter Eurton, who has 4-1 favorite Stay Hot in the San Gabriel, stood near his Santa Anita barn and tried to sound optimistic about 2026.

“They keep talking about how bad it is. It’s not that bad. It’s still the Great Race Place to me,” Eurton said. “Granted, it doesn’t look good (for racing in California). But I feel good about it.”

Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.