Path to Super Bowl LX: Kyle Shanahan’s NFC playoff success gives 49ers a chance

If you hadn’t noticed, the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan is in the conversation for NFL Coach of the Year.

It’s hard to miss since every talking head locally and nationally, as well as mainstream media and the blogosphere, has brought it up.

The guess here is he’s running behind Sunday night’s opponent, Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears, or maybe Mike Vrabel of New England.

“In the conversation” is usually code for “won’t win.” Not that Shanahan isn’t deserving, guiding the 49ers to an 11-4 record despite losing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the season as well as Brock Purdy and George Kittle for large chunks of it.

The Bears are one of the NFL’s best stories, going from 6-11 to 11-4 and currently the No. 2 NFC seed behind Seattle. Johnson is a rookie head coach. The Bears have two one-and-dones in the playoffs since 2011. He’ll probably get the most votes and won’t be undeserving. Shanahan will be looked at more as an established coach who is coming off a one-off losing season in 2024 rather than resurrecting a moribund franchise.

Shanahan may be the best coach in the postseason however, even with a pair of blown leads to the Kansas City Chiefs in two Super Bowls. He’s 8-4 in the playoffs and don’t be surprised if they win a time or two again this season, although hosting Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 8 is a tall order with a so-so defense with no pass rush.

There are a lot of solid candidates for COY, more than I can remember. Here is a subjective ranking of the coaches as it pertains to the postseason:

1. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers: The 49ers have made a good showing every year and were in position to win every playoff game he has coached other than the NFC title game against the Eagles when Brock Purdy left with an elbow injury in the first quarter.

2. Sean McVay, L.A. Rams: He’s 8-5 with six playoff appearances and one Super Bowl ring after the 2021 season. The Lions were the only team to give Philadelphia a game last year.

3. Sean Payton, Broncos: Payton is 9-8 with a win in Super Bowl XLIV in New Orleans. His call of an onside kick to open the second half against Indianapolis was as gutsy as it gets.

4. DeMeco Ryans, Texans: Surprised? Ryans has put together his most buttoned-up team with a dominant defense. He is 2-2 in the postseason.

5. Nick Sirianni, Eagles: Still not sure which direction the Eagles are headed, but Sirianni is coaching the defending champions, has been to the Super Bowl twice and has a 6-3 postseason record despite constant changes with coordinators.

6. Mike Macdonald, Seahawks: Making his postseason debut after coaching the Seahawks to a 10-7 record as a rookie. Seattle is the current top seed at 12-3.

7. Ben Johnson, Bears: Probably still smarting from losing to the 49ers despite a 24-7 lead as Lions offensive coordinator in the NFC title game after the 2023 season.

8. Mike Vrabel, Patriots: Was 3-5 as Tennessee’s head coach in the playoffs. Pretty good considering it was the Titans. The Patriots have gone from 4-13 to 11-3 on his watch.

9. Matt LaFleur, Packers: Is 3-5 with Packers, including three losses to Shanahan and the 49ers — one in the NFC Championship Game following the 2019 season.

10. Jim Harbaugh, Chargers: A 5-3 record in the postseason (5-2 with the 49ers), but pretty much a no-show in last year’s 32-12 wild card to Houston.

11. Sean McDermott, Bills: Is 7-7 in the playoffs, but has the best quarterback in Josh Allen and their nemesis Kansas City is out of the picture.

12. Liam Coen, Jaguars: Would be worth it to see Jacksonville back at Levi’s if only to see Coen and 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh square off in a cage match.

13. Mike Tomlin, Steelers: Is 8-11 in the postseason including a Super Bowl win after the 2008 season but has made eight straight first-game exits.

14. Dave Canales, Panthers: Went from 5-12 in first season to 8-7 in 2025, but has the most suspect team in the tournament.

NFC outlook

Matchups based on current standings:

Bye: No. 1 Seattle (12-3)

Seahawks’ final two: at Carolina (8-7), at 49ers (11-4)

Two road assignments against teams with winning records in hopes of securing the top seed.

No. 7 Green Bay (9-5-1) at No. 2 Chicago (11-4)

Packers’ final two: vs. Baltimore (7-8), at Minnesota (7-8)

Took a gut-punch loss against Bears on Caleb Williams’ overtime heave. With each team winning once, would love a rubber match against Chicago.

Bears’ final two: vs. 49ers (11-4), vs. Detroit (8-7)

Chicago is intent on proving it’s legit and still has a shot at being top seed. City would be crazy if that happened.

No. 6 L.A. Rams (11-4) at No. 3 Philadelphia (10-5)

Rams’ final two: at Atlanta (5-10), vs. Arizona (3-12)

Destined for 13-4 but loss to Seattle may have torpedoed NFC West title and top seed.

Eagles’ final two: at Buffalo (11-4), vs. Washington (3-12)

If Philly wants an air of legitimacy on defending its title, beating the Bills would go a long way.

No. 5 49ers (11-4) at No. 4 Carolina (8-7)

49ers’ final two: vs. Chicago (11-4), vs. Seattle (12-3)

Anything worth achieving is worth achieving the hard way.

Panthers’ final two: vs. Seattle (12-3), at Tampa Bay (7-8)

Impressive win over Bucs, but have to do it again and ending with two losses seems likely.

Still alive (No. 9 seed 

No. 8 Detroit (8-7): Loss to Pittsburgh puts one of the preseason NFC favorites on life support.

Lions’ final two: at Minnesota (7-8), at Chicago (11-4)

Finishing 10-7 and still not making the playoffs is a possibility.

No. 10 Tampa Bay (7-8): Bucs have hit the skids. Were 5-1 after beating the 49ers and 6-2 before losing six of seven with the one win a three-pointer against Arizona.

Bucs’ last two: at Miami (6-9), vs. Carolina (8-7)

AFC outlook

Bye: No. 1 Denver (12-3)

Broncos’ final two: at Kansas City (6-9), vs. L.A. Chargers (11-4)

Loss Should beat Mahomes-less Chiefs, but finale could knock Broncos out of top seed

No. 7 Houston (10-5) at No. 2 New England (12-3)

Texans’ final two: at L.A. Chargers (10-4), at Indianapolis (8-7)

Haven’t clinched division but it seems inevitable. The team no one wants to face in the first round. Including Patriots.

Patriots’ final two: at N.Y. Jets (3-12) vs. Miami (6-9)

If the Broncos stumble, the teams’ remaining games have New England as the probable No. 1 seed.

No. 6 Buffalo (11-4) at No. 3 Jacksonville (11-4)

Bills’ final two: vs. Philadelphia (10-5), vs. N.Y. Jets (3-12)

Close loss to the Browns was disconcerting, but Buffalo can make a statement against Philadelphia and then coast against the Jets.

Jaguars’ final two: at Indianapolis (8-7), vs. Tennessee (3-12)

Jacksonville is on a roll now after taking down top-seeded Denver. “Watching Jacobi Meyers ball out for Jax has to make you feel some kind of way if you’re a Raiders fan,” said Charles Woodson on X.

No. 5 L.A. Chargers (11-4) at No. 4 Pittsburgh (9-6)

Chargers’ final two: vs.Houston (10-5), at Denver (12-3)

Their last two opponents are fighting for seeding and few if any teams want to face the Texans’ defense.

Steelers’ final two: at Cleveland (3-12) vs. Baltimore (7-8)

Hope it was worth it for D.K. Metcalf to confront and take a swing at a blue-haired Lions trash-talker in the stands.

Still alive

8. Indianapolis (8-7): Looks like the Colts can’t keep up with 44-year-old Philip Rivers instead of the other way around.

Colts’ final two: vs. Jacksonville (11-4), at Houston (10-5)

9. Baltimore (7-8): Ravens have no explanation for keeping Derrick Henry off the field in crunch time in loss to Patriots.

Ravens’ final two: at Green Bay (9-5-1), at Pittsburgh (9-6)

If John Harbaugh and Co. win these last two, maybe it’s worth keeping the head coach around for a 19th season.