Caltrain ridership surged 57% in 2025, but funding cliff looms

In its first full year operating all electrified trains, Caltrain reported a 57% jump in ridership in 2025, marking its strongest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic as long-term funding uncertainty threatens the agency’s future.

According to its fiscal year 2025 report, which ended in June, Caltrain averaged 760,386 riders per month, rebounding to 65.2% of pre-pandemic levels from 36.1% at the start of the year. Earlier this month, the American Public Transportation Association ranked it the fastest-growing U.S. transit agency among systems with 3 million to 15 million annual trips.

Caltrain connects San Francisco to the South Bay, with links to BART, San Francisco International Airport, and other Bay Area transit systems.

Despite a ridership rebound, Caltrain warns it could be forced to cut service without voter approval of a regional transit sales tax expected on the November 2026 ballot. The agency projects an average annual funding shortfall of $75 million from 2027 through 2035, even as officials believe ridership will continue to grow with more Silicon Valley workers expected to return to offices next year.

“Electrified service and other enhancements have shown that residents across the Bay Area value these improvements,” Caltrain Executive Director Michelle Bouchard said in a statement. “At the same time, we continue to evaluate how to cut costs and make the most of the resources we have while we work toward long-term, sustainable funding.”

In October, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 63, which authorized the placement of a regional transit sales tax measure on the November 2026 ballot. The measure would fund Caltrain, BART, Muni, AC Transit and other systems across Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.

The proposal would levy a half-cent sales tax in most counties and a full-cent tax in San Francisco. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the Bay Area’s regional transportation planning agency, estimates the measure could generate about $1 billion annually over a period of 14 years.

Caltrain officials say budget shortfalls threaten gains made since the launch of the system’s $2.4 billion electrification project launched in September 2024.

“Caltrain, like many other systems in the Bay Area, will need a new funding source in the near future in order to continue current operations,” spokesperson Dan Lieberman told this news organization.

If the measure fails and no alternative funding is secured, Caltrain has warned of sweeping service reductions. At a board meeting last month, the agency outlined potential impacts that include closing more than a third of stations, eliminating weekend service, reducing service to hourly frequencies, cutting staffing and ending service by 9 p.m., compared with the current midnight schedule.

Months before the vote, Caltrain highlighted other ways the public can help sustain its service.

“While it would be difficult to match the incredible growth we’ve seen since the launch of electric service, we’re still seeing strong year-over-year gains,” Lieberman said, noting ridership in October and November was about 42% higher than during the same months last year.

He encouraged riders who want to support the system “to buy a ticket and get on board one of them so you can travel the Peninsula the way it was meant to be traveled.”