Picks for the CFP quarterfinals and bowl games as the Rose Bowl kickoff time moves and the sport lurches in the wrong direction
Welcome to the first installment of the Hotline’s postseason picks against the point spread, which covers the opening round of the College Football Playoff and notable the pre-Christmas bowl games. We were 1-5 last week with early bowls and the CFP opening round. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
One of the most famous rivalries in American sports hit pause earlier this week when USC and Notre Dame failed to extend their century-old series because of scheduling complications related to the College Football Playoff selection process.
It’s not the only tradition being uprooted by the expanded CFP: The Rose Bowl will start an hour earlier next week.
That’s right, kickoff for the Granddaddy of the bowl system is 1 p.m. Pacific on New Year’s Day, not 2 p.m.
The change might seem insignificant, but it has been a discussion point between CFP executives and Rose Bowl officials for years.
By starting earlier, the Rose Bowl will lose the spectacular visual produced by the Sun setting behind the mountains late in the third quarter. With the new kickoff time, sunset will unfold with just a few minutes remaining in the game.
The 60-minute adjustment is designed to serve the Sugar Bowl, which starts at 5 p.m. and is the final game of the CFP’s tripleheader on New Year’s Day.
“Over the past five years, the Rose Bowl Game has run long on several occasions, resulting in a delayed start for the following bowl game,” David Eads, the CEO of the Tournament of Roses, explained when the change was announced in the spring.
“Ultimately it was important for us to be good partners with ESPN and the College Football Playoff and remain flexible for the betterment of college football and its postseason.”
There’s a much larger issue at play, folks.
From the Rose Bowl’s new kickoff time to the USC-Notre Dame series hiatus, the expanded CFP is impacting every aspect of the sport. And if the event expands to 16 teams for next season, its outsized influence will increase by an order of magnitude.
(The Big Ten and SEC control the CFP’s governance structure and must decide on the format for next season’s field by Jan. 23.)
College sports already features one dominant postseason event with the NCAA Tournament. But basketball is a different beast — its regular season has never been the centerpiece. College football has always possessed the best, most dramatic regular season in American sports precisely because the postseason was chaotic, confounding, flawed and frustratingly imprecise.
The larger the CFP field — whether it’s 12 teams or 16 teams or even 24 teams, which is being discussed — the more exacting the process for determining a champion. But the cost to the intoxicating regular season could be significant.
As one industry source noted: “College football cannot become NFL Light. It must remain distinct.”
But remaining distinct would require discipline.
It would require executives to turn down the prospect of more dollars — dollars that could help solve budget crunches and fund coaching changes and support revenue sharing.
It would require executives to reject the tantalizing lure of increased access to the sport’s biggest stage, with all the material benefits that accompany playoff appearances (including contract bonuses).
Above all, it would require athletic directors and university presidents and conference commissioners to prioritize a prosperous future over present-day problems.
And if there’s one thing the sport’s leadership has consistently lacked over the years, it’s discipline.
Soon enough, USC-Notre Dame and the Rose Bowl kickoff time will have company in the rubble left behind by the ever-expanding CFP.
To the picks …
Season: 79-84-1Five-star special: 8-8
(All times Pacific)
Penn State (+3) vs. Clemson (Pinstripe Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 27 at 9 a.m. on ABCComment: Two big brands that suffered unfathomably bad seasons are nonetheless a ratings gift to ABC and the Pinstripe Bowl. The Nittany Lions showed enough mettle down the stretch to make the points worthwhile. Pick: Penn State
Georgia Tech (+4.5) vs. BYU (Pop-Tarts Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 27 at 12:30 p.m. on ABCComment: An appropriate bowl sponsor for teams in need of a boost after their playoff dreams vanished in the final weeks. (We prefer frosted strawberry, by the way.) The Cougars rolled over Colorado in their bowl last year, and we expect a repeat performance. Pick: BYU
TCU (+6.5) vs. USC (Alamo Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 30 at 6 p.m. on ESPNComment: Lincoln Riley returns to his home state with better personnel than his opponent, but we were impressed by TCU’s late-season upturn. The game means more to the underdogs. Pick: TCU
Arizona State (+3) vs. Duke (Sun Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 31 at 11 a.m. on CBSComment: The Blue Devils won the ACC and were in the playoff hunt until the pairings were announced. Will they bring the necessary urgency? Meanwhile, we never doubt ASU coach Kenny Dillingham’s motivational magic. No Sam Leavitt? No Jordyn Tyson? No problem. Pick: ASU
Michigan (+7) vs. Texas (Citrus Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 31 at 12 p.m. on ABCComment: The intrigue here involves Michigan’s interim coach, Biff Poggi, who is considered a potential replacement for the dismissed, disgraced Sherrone Moore. If the Wolverines look good, Poggi’s candidacy will gain steam. Pick: Michigan
Nebraska (+16.5) vs. Utah (Las Vegas Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 31 at 12:30 p.m. on ESPNComment: No chance the Utes lose the final game of the Kyle Whittingham era. The only question is whether Nebraska sneaks through the back door with a late touchdown. Our hunch: The Utes are full throttle from start to finish and cover that rather large number. Pick: Utah
No. 10 Miami (+9.5) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)Kickoff: Dec. 31 at 4:30 p.m. on ESPNComment: The Hurricanes possess enough talent on the lines of scrimmage to hold their own against mighty OSU. But will coach Mario Cristobal avoid the game-management mistakes that have plagued him with Oregon and Miami? Pick: Ohio State
No. 4 Texas Tech (+1.5) vs. No. 5 Oregon (Orange Bowl)Kickoff: Jan. 1 at 9 a.m. on ESPNComment: Oregon was the unfortunate victim of the CFP’s screwy logistics last year after winning the Big Ten. This time, the Ducks are reaping all the benefits that come with finishing third: the home game (against James Madison), the ideal rest-and-recovery windows and a beatable quarterfinal opponent that must combat rust, just as the Ducks did a year ago. Pick: Oregon
No. 9 Alabama (+7) vs. No. 1 Indiana (Rose Bowl)Kickoff: Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. on ESPNComment: As a reward for their undefeated season and Big Ten title, the Hoosiers must deal with a four-week break and an opponent with surging confidence and more future NFL Draft picks. This matchup isn’t an exact replica of Ohio State-Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl, but it’s similar enough for us to take the points. Pick: Alabama
No. 6 Mississippi (+7) vs. No. 3 Georgia (Sugar Bowl)Kickoff: Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. on ESPNComment: This rematch of Georgia’s 43-35 midseason victory (in Athens) will unfold without Lane Kiffin on the Mississippi sideline. But his absence is less meaningful than the recent trajectories of the two teams: The Bulldogs have improved more (much more) than the Rebels since Oct. 18. Pick: Georgia
SMU (+3) vs. Arizona (Holiday Bowl)Kickoff: Jan. 2 at 5 p.m. on FoxComment: If Arizona recreates its November form, this won’t be close. We expect miscues early and domination late for a decisive victory that vaults the Wildcats into the offseason with more momentum than they imagined was possible when the season began. Pick: Arizona
Straight-up winners: Penn State, BYU, USC, Arizona State, Michigan, Utah, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Georgia and Arizona
Five-star special: Oregon. Both defenses are elite, but the Ducks are far superior to Texas Tech offensively with quarterback Dante Moore and their healthy array of playmakers. The Orange Bowl won’t be in doubt with five minutes remaining.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline