Raptors’ Wish List: Consistent shot making
As the 2025 season has progressed, the Toronto Raptors went from one of the top offenses in the NBA to dead last over their recent stretch of games. Part of that slump is surely caused by RJ Barrett’s injury, but the other part of it is the inconsistent shot making from nearly every other guard on the roster.
Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Ja’Kobe Walter, and even Immanuel Quickley are struggling mightily from three-point range. Out of the group, only Walter is shooting above 35% from three over the last couple of weeks. Which isn’t anything to write home about considering the types of shots he takes, these aren’t difficult step backs, they’re catch and shoot threes that aren’t being capitalized on.
None of the guards that are on the court primarily for their ability to shoot threes have been able to knock them down with any rhythm, consistency, or volume. Now, all the blame shouldn’t be attributed solely to the players. The Raptors offense doesn’t do a great job at creating looks for their role players, they don’t often force the defense to rotate, meaning shots aren’t opening up.
Though part of the reason the defense doesn’t have to rotate is because they’re already sagging off shooters, discouraging drives to the rim with a compact defense and daring Toronto to shoot. Naturally, better shooting would lead to a more spread out defense, which would allow easier drives that force the defense to rotate, in turn creating better shots. It’s a bit of a chicken vs. the egg situation.
That concept is something I wrote about before the season began, when I laid out the reasons I thought the Raptors would be a better team than media consensus. One of the reasons I thought they could be better was because their above-the-break (ATB) three point shooting would take a leap with the additions of Brandon Ingram, Sandro Mamukelashvili and a more healthy Immanuel Quickley.
A clear area of struggle for Toronto last year was its 3-point shooting. It wasn’t only their 3-point efficiency, but also their 3-point frequency and location. Last season, Toronto ranked 29th in overall 3-point frequency, but here’s the thing: Toronto was 14th in corner three point frequency, but 30th in above-the-break (ATB) frequency, shooting only 23.5 percent of their total shot attempts from that area (league average was 28.6 percent, with the highest teams reaching above 30 percent).
The reason this matters so much is because the ability to shoot ATB 3s— or at least the willingness to shoot them — drags defenders out from the rim and forces them to spread further out. If a team is unable or unwilling to shoot those shots, it makes a half-court possession so much easier to guard as defenders can come closer together, allowing rotations and help defense to arrive more quickly.
That second paragraph is exactly what we’re seeing opponents do now, and it’s led to Toronto having the 30th ranked offense in the NBA since Barrett’s injury. Adding Barrett back will help, but long term there needs to be more, a modern NBA offense requires shooting. Especially one built around two forwards that aren’t prolific three-point threats.
The easiest avenue towards solving this problem is just hoping that things turn around and these guys just start knocking down threes. But, Dick has shot 35% from three his entire career. Not awful, but not the idea in mind when drafting him. I’m not exactly expecting a sudden leap to 40%. The same goes for Agbaji, outside of last season, his only season shooting 35% or better was his rookie year.
Outside of markedly improved shooting from the current rotation, the other internal options consist of Jamison Battle or A.J. Lawson. Two players that haven’t received an adequate opportunity, but it’s also risky hinging the offense on guys that haven’t proven to be consistent volume shooters. For what it’s worth I would love to see Battle get more time on the court, he’s easily been the most consistent shooter off the bench.
But, for whatever reason, Battle isn’t seeing much opportunity, which leaves us to look externally for a solution. With the trade market this year shaping up to be an abundant one, there’s plenty of options at differing skill levels that Toronto can pursue.
The swing for the fences option
As Es mentioned in his wish list piece, making trades for the big fish on the market is easier said than done. Any of the large salaries that Toronto would look to trade have increasingly low value, and any deal would require adding additional value in the form of young prospects or first-round picks.
Still, some of the big names Toronto could look at adding include Lamelo Ball, Trae Young, Ja Morant, or Darius Garland. All four players would be an upgrade over Quickley as a lead guard, and would either help the three-point shooting directly (Ball, Young, Garland) or indirectly by creating better looks for the role-players (Morant).
Again, making trades for any of these names is difficult, and Toronto would likely have to throw in young prospects and multiple first round picks to make it worthwhile. All of these guards would add dynamism to the Raptors offense but come with flaws of their own. High risk, high reward.
The Budget Options
- One of the Phoenix Suns’ shooters: The Raptors have already been linked to Suns’ big man Nick Richards, so maybe they can manage to snag one of Phoenix’s three-point snipers in the process. Between Collin Gillespie, Grayson Allen, and Royce O’Neale, the Suns have a plethora of shooters, they could afford to give one up to re-balance their roster or acquire picks.
- Sam Merrill: While it’s unlikely that Cleveland gives up Merrill, the team has struggled mightily this year, and with reports that Dan Gilbert is ‘very unhappy’, maybe they’ll shake things up. Merrill is shooting 42.7% from deep this year, and is at 39.1% in his career. There’s no doubt that adding a shooter of Merrill’s caliber would change how teams guard the Raptors, but it may take too much to pry him from the Cavaliers.
- Keon Ellis: He may be the most realistic target for the Raptors. I have no idea what the Sacramento Kings are doing, and I’m not sure that they do either. After a breakout season last year, Ellis has seen his minutes dwindle. At just 25 years old and making only $2 million this season, it may not be difficult to pry him from a floundering Kings team. In 180 games, he’s shooting 41.8% from three, and while the volume isn’t high, the consistency has been there.
I feel like since Barnes became the face of the franchise it’s been known that to maximize his talent he needs to be surrounded with shooting. There’s good reason for it, having real shooting threats would make his life way easier driving to the rim. Regardless of if they swing for the fences, bring in someone on a budget or just play Jamison Battle more, the Raptors need more shot making. Truthfully, there are plenty of options out there if Toronto is willing to cough something up for them. If they aren’t, then we all need to hope that somebody, anybody, can start making shots. And soon.
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