Elias: Democrats who can’t win the California governor’s race should quit

By Election Day next November, political party registration in California will be about 40% Democratic, 24% Republican and 35% independent or having declined to state.

That’s close to where political preferences in this state have stayed pretty steadily since the 1990s, when a tide of Latino voters became Democrats because Republicans led by then-Gov. Pete Wilson supported the 1994 Proposition 187, which threatened to deprive undocumented immigrants of public schooling, most medical care and other services. Much of the measure was later thrown out by the courts.

That wasn’t before Latinos had a strong scare, though, with many longtime residents feeling they had better become U.S. citizens, which 2.5 million actually did by 1999. They turned California from a purple state where folks from either major party had a chance to reach public office into a solidly blue Democratic one where no Republican beside muscleman actor Arnold Schwarzenegger has been elected statewide in about 20 years.

So why are Republicans hopeful one of their two significant candidates for governor could get elected next year? It’s because of unjustifiably large Democratic egos. Under this state’s top-two “jungle primary” system, the first two finishers in any primary election reach the runoff election, regardless of party affiliations.

Right now, so many Democrats are running for governor that they could splinter their party’s June primary vote and leave two well-funded Republicans in the race — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton — as the top two vote-getters and opposing each other next November.

The Democratic field includes former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond and former state Assembly majority leader Ian Calderon. There’s also Orange County’s former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, the East Bay’s current U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, onetime California Attorney General Xavier Becerra and billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, whose “Stick It to Trump” TV commercials during last fall’s special election over Proposition 50 were one reason for the redistricting measure’s easy passage.

Democrats have never seen such a large field, and the splintering of party voters was visible in polls that found Porter recently running second behind Bianco with 11% of voters favoring her. Bianco was barely 1% up on her, but many analysts guess most GOP voters have not yet caught on to what they might accomplish next year if they solidify behind one or two candidates.

There’s one reason so many Democrats are now running: ego. Does anyone but Thurmond think he has a chance at the runoff? Does anyone think Yee can make it? Or Calderon, a termed-out state Assembly officer largely unknown outside his old Los Angeles County district?

Steyer has the money to make himself a major presence. Villaraigosa also could raise significant funds, as might Becerra, Porter and Swalwell. Even if all the other Democrats drop out before early spring, that would still leave five with at least some financial credibility splitting the party vote. It’s a recipe for Democratic disaster unmatched since Schwarzenegger ousted former Gov. Gray Davis in a 2003 recall election.

Some of these Democrats must reassess their own potential viability, which their egos appear to have inflated. Porter’s videoed outbursts against a questioning journalist and her own staff ought to eliminate her, even if all they’ve done so far is reduce her poll margin over other Democrats by about two points.

Becerra, a former U.S. health secretary under President Biden after leaving Sacramento, has been hurt by his failure to supervise his dormant campaign fund, which the FBI says was therefore raided by several Sacramento consultants, including Becerra’s onetime chief of staff, a 20-year loyalist. If he couldn’t keep track of his own campaign money, how can Becerra expect to supervise California’s huge budget?

Get those two out, along with Yee, Calderon, Thurmond and Swalwell, and the threat to Democratic rule all but disappears. Leave them in, and it’s devil take the hindmost.

If these supposedly dedicated Democrats really care about their party’s continued control of California and its ability to assert priorities like abortion on demand and gun control, it’s high time some of them left the field.

Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com, and read more of his columns online at californiafocus.net.