Walters: State’s odd election year starts with Republicans possibly leading governor’s race

The 2026 campaigns for governor, a raft of other statewide offices, 52 congressional seats and 100 slots in the state Legislature officially begin today with the onset of candidate filing. It could be one of the oddest election cycles in California’s 175 years as a state, albeit one that puts the state’s convoluted politics in the national spotlight.

There are so many Democrats running for governor that it’s theoretically possible for a Republican to win the office, despite the state’s deeply blue political profile, especially with the possibility of even more Democratic hopefuls jumping into the mob — as a herd of kangaroos is dubbed in Australia.

Meanwhile, both incumbent members of Congress and aspirants will be running in districts that have been radically gerrymandered to shrink Republicans’ tiny delegation even more, as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress.

The possibility of a Republican governor, although very scant, stems from the state’s top-two primary election system. All candidates, regardless of party, will appear on the same June 2 primary election ballot, and the two with the highest percentages of the vote — no matter how small those shares may be — will face each other in the November election.

With upwards of a dozen Democrats now running and the possibility of others, it’s possible the two Republicans in the mix so far — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former television commentator Steve Hilton — could theoretically finish one and two with perhaps as few as 10-15% of the votes each.

It’s not likely if the Democratic cohort shrinks in the next few months as the weakest contenders drop out, lacking enough money or poll support to continue. However, the lack of a natural Democratic frontrunner and the seeming lack of party leadership strong enough to cull the herd bolster the mathematical possibility of a GOP upset.

Had former Vice President Kamala Harris or U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla decided to run, either would have been the immediate frontrunner. But by opting out, they left a vacuum.

At the moment, former Congresswoman Katie Porter is leading the Democratic pack, albeit with scarcely double-digit support in the polls. She and former Controller Betty Yee are the only two women now running with Harris. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former state Sen. Toni Atkins out . Porter also gained recognition during her unsuccessful bid for a U.S. Senate seat last year.

Billionaire Tom Steyer is currently the most visible contender, spending some of his immense wealth on television and internet ads to depict himself as a populist who rails against “Sacramento politicians” and promises to reduce electric bills — not unlike how Donald Trump achieved success.

Beyond Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Attorney General and Biden cabinet member Xavier Becerra appear to be the strongest Democratic strivers. However, everyone is still waiting to see whether Attorney General Rob Bonta or Los Angeles businessman Rick Caruso will opt in.

Having so much uncertainty this late in the game is very unusual. However, at some point, perhaps around February or March, when the Democratic field finally begins to shrink, it will be possible to sort out the truly viable candidates from the wannabes and do some realistic handicapping.

Until then, as Willie Brown, the former state Assembly speaker and San Francisco Mayor and one of the state’s most astute politicians, put it to Politico:

“The field is not considered of a quality that you as a Democrat would expect in California. We’re still pretty much carried away with stardom, with individuals who have some impact … We don’t have any candidates like that at the moment.”

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.