Disputed Myanmar election wins China's vote of confidence

International monitors have dismissed the vote starting Sunday as a charade to rebrand Myanmar's military rule since a 2021 coup, which triggered a civil war.

But Beijing's brokerage has secured watershed truces and retreats by rebel groups -- turning the tide of the conflict and strengthening the junta's hand ahead of the weeks-long vote.

Once backing opposition factions, analysts say China now throws its weight behind the military and its polls as Beijing pursues its own private interests in Myanmar -- and even the reordering of its leadership.

"It's as if an outsider were involved in our family issues," complained a resident of northern Lashio city, once the rebels' biggest war prize but returned to the junta via Beijing's intervention in April.

"I want to sort out my family matters by ourselves," said the 30-year-old woman, declining to be named for security reasons. "I don't like other people involved."

- 'No state collapse' -

Myanmar's military cancelled democracy nearly five years ago, detaining civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and alleging her electoral victory was secured by massive voter fraud.

The country plunged into civil war as pro-democracy activists took up arms as rag-tag guerrillas, fighting alongside formidable ethnic minority armies that have long resisted central rule.

China's reaction to the military takeover was initially muted, but the explosion of internet scam centres along the China-Myanmar border threw a lever.

The massively profitable online fraud factories ensnared legions of Chinese citizens -- both as trafficked, unwilling workers and as targets in elaborate romance and business cryptocurrency cons.

Irked by the junta's failure to crack down, Beijing abandoned its agnosticism, giving at least its tacit backing to a combined rebel offensive, monitors say.

The "Three Brotherhood Alliance" trio of ethnic minority armies won stunning advances, including Lashio in the summer of 2024 -- the first capture of a state capital and a regional military command.

"What I've seen is that China can control outside organisations," said another 30-year-old Lashio resident, also speaking anonymously for security reasons.

The rebels marched on to the brink of Myanmar's second city, Mandalay, before Beijing pumped the brakes, said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

"Beijing's policy is no state collapse," he told AFP. "When it looked like the military was going to collapse, it equated that with state collapse and so it stepped in to prevent that."

- Reshuffling ranks -

China may have settled on backing the military, but Michaels says there are terminal doubts about military chief Min Aung Hlaing, who plunged the country into an intractable crisis.

"I think there's a general sense that he's stubborn, not particularly good at what he does," said Michaels. "They would like to see him moved aside or at least have his power diluted."

Many monitors, including United Nations expert Tom Andrews, have described the election as a "sham".

Rebels defying military rule have pledged to block the vote from their territory -- deriding it as choreography allowing Min Aung Hlaing to prolong his rule by wearing a civilian sash.

But the nominal return to civilian rule will hedge Min Aung Hlaing's power, said Michaels, forcing him to choose between the presidency or armed forces chief -- roles he has held in tandem under military rule.

"It probably will result in his power being diluted or him having to make some sort of compromise," said the analyst.

After the junta started to lay out an election timetable, Min Aung Hlaing enjoyed his first post-coup meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May.

Meanwhile, China began to defuse the "Three Brotherhood Alliance" -- peeling away two of its factions based along its border with truces.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army agreed to an armistice in October, after the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army handed back once bitterly contested Lashio in April.

"I feel lost as a citizen," said the Lashio woman who requested anonymity.

"Some of my friends cannot come back. Some have already died. They are not in the world anymore."

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman told AFP: "China supports Myanmar in broadly uniting domestic political forces, steadily advancing its domestic political agenda and restoring stability and development."

Lashing back at foreign criticism of the poll last week, junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told reporters: "It is not being held for the international community."

But he said that "partner countries" are "assisting and supporting the election" -- doing so "out of a desire for the betterment of Myanmar".