Pac-12 MBB (2.0) power rankings: Only Gonzaga is on pace for the NCAA Tournament, and that’s a problem worth monitoring
Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of a conference that doesn’t exist (yet) using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season.
If the new Pac-12 were alive today, it would be doomed in one significant regard: at-large participation in the NCAA Tournament.
Okay, maybe that’s overstating the situation. But clearly, the rebuilt conference would be struggling based on results to date.
Of the nine teams, only Gonzaga has compiled a resume worthy of at-large access. But the Zags would be heavily favored to win the conference tournament, potentially leaving the Pac-12 as a one-bid league.
None of this matters at the moment, because the new version of the Pac-12 is six months from reality.
But the Hotline views the 2025-26 season as a test run for what’s to come: How the teams perform across their three current conferences (the West Coast, Sun Belt and Mountain West) offers a level of insight into what we can expect from the conference when it comes online next season.
Rosters change, players improve, coaches come and go — the realities of the modern era will impact the new Pac-12, for better or worse.
It’s safe to assume Gonzaga will be just fine. But we see value in tracking how Washington State and Oregon State perform this season in the WCC, for example, or how Texas State fares in the Sun Belt. And there’s clearly perspective to be gained by monitoring how Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State perform in the Mountain West.
So far, only Utah State has generated a resume worthy of consideration for the NCAAs. The Aggies are No. 17 in the NET ranking but have faced a mediocre schedule and own no quality wins. Were the 68-team field selected today, they would be squarely on the bubble, in our view.
Which brings us back to the original point: The rebuilt Pac-12 envisions itself as the No. 6 basketball conference in the land, behind only the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and Big East.
But to make that expectation a reality, it must be a multi-bid league on a regular basis. It’s not enough to send the champion to March Madness. Teams not named Gonzaga need to make the cut, too.
And if at-large bids were handed out today, the other eight would be staring at a shutout.
To the power rankings …
(NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (12-1)
Results: beat Campbell 98-70 and Oregon 91-82
NET ranking: No. 5
Comment: Have the Zags done enough out of conference to contend for a No. 1 seed when they reach the other side of round-robin play in the WCC? Not in our view. But if they avoid bad losses in league, a No. 2 seed could come their way. (Previous: 1)
2. Utah State (10-1)
Results: beat Colorado State 100-58
NET ranking: No. 17
Comment: The Aggies are a classic example of the NET working in mysterious way. They have played a mediocre schedule; they own a so-so loss (to South Florida); and they are 0-1 in Quadrant 1 games. But somehow, they have a lofty ranking. For context, consider that the KenPom.com predictive rankings, which are used by the NCAA selection committee, slot them 29th nationally. (Previous: 2)
3. San Diego State (6-4)
Results: beat Air Force 81-58, lost to Arizona 68-45
NET ranking: No. 87
Comment: The Arizona duel represented SDSU’s last chance for a signature non-conference win. At this point, the Aztecs probably need to claim the Mountain West’s automatic bid to secure their return to the NCAAs. (Previous: 4)
4. Colorado State (9-3)
Results: lost at Utah State 100-58
NET ranking: No. 70
Comment: Sure, it’s relatively early for drawing conclusions. But teams with a legitimate chance to win a quality conference do not lose by 42 points anywhere at any time to anyone. (Previous: 3)
5. Oregon State (7-6)
Results: lost to Sam Houston 85-75, won at Arizona State 78-75
NET ranking: No. 175
Comment: The Beavers have sustained many atrocious losses in recent years — the face plant against Sam Houston simply adds to the list. Meanwhile, they have collected very few wins as impressive as the result at ASU. That was a stunner, folks. (Previous: 6)
6. Boise State (8-4)
Results: lost at Nevada 81-66
NET ranking: No. 48
Comment: When they are operating at top efficiency, the Broncos can beat anyone in the Mountain West. But on off nights, they can lose to anyone anywhere. Even Hawaii Pacific, for example. (Previous: 5)
7. Texas State (8-6)
Results: lost to Arkansas State 89-70, beat South Alabama 67-65
NET ranking: No. 266
Comment: The Bobcats better improve their NET by 150 spots by this time next season or they could be a serious drag on their new conference. (Previous: 7)
8. Fresno State (6-6)
Results: lost at UNLV 84-72
NET ranking: No. 181
Comment: The four-game losing streak will hit five the next time the Bulldogs take the floor, on Dec. 30, when Utah State rolls through the Valley and blasts them off the floor. (Previous: 8)
9. Washington State (5-8)
Results: beat Eastern Washington 78-63 and Mercer 84-78
NET ranking: No. 167
Comment: The Cougars have performed with reasonable success on offense. The problem is the other side of the court, where they rank 194th in efficiency, according to KenPom.com. (Previous: 9)
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