Los Angeles County home-price gains shrink with sales 19% below average

Los Angeles County house hunters are balking even as price gains shrink.

My trusty spreadsheet reviewed Attom’s report on October sales of houses and condos, both existing and newly constructed homes. The Los Angeles County median selling price of $885,000 was up 0.2% in a year and remains only 4%, or $33,000, below the $918,000 high set in June.

Across Los Angeles County, there were 5,700 closed sales in October. That was the fifth-slowest October for sales in 21 years.

Homebuying activity is up 1% in a year but 19% below the month’s average since 2005.

Sales slog

Even a significant cooling in price appreciation isn’t inspiring homebuyers. Prices are up 9% in the past three years after surging 31% over the previous three.

That 2019-22 boom was driven by the pandemic’s economic gyrations, including historically low mortgage rates and a thirst for bigger living spaces.

House hunters might be encouraged by slower appreciation plus mortgage rates dropping off their recent peaks. But the reasons behind declining financing costs – economic uncertainty – aren’t exactly motivating many folks to close a sale.

Taking a longer view, Los Angeles County buyers are somewhat more active.

In the past year, sales totaled 62,152, up 4% from the previous year. Yet it’s 25% below the 21-year average.

Who can buy?

It’s all about the house payment.

Mortgage rates averaged 6.4% in the three months ended in October. That’s flat in a year, but a full percentage point off the recent high of 7.4% in November 2023.

Combine those rates and recent pricing patterns, and you see that October’s typical Los Angeles County buyer had an estimated monthly mortgage payment of $5,534. That’s flat in a year but 7% below June’s recent high.

Still, this buying burden is up 95% in six years – and don’t forget the $177,000 needed for a 20% down payment to get these payments.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com