New Zealand’s 700 MHz spectrum auction defined the 4G landscape

Editor’s Note: This post merges several reports originally filed between February 2013 and January 2014, documenting the "Digital Dividend" auction. Despite conditions designed to level the playing field, Telecom NZ, Vodafone and 2degrees competed for the spectrum that would define the 4G mobile era.

February 21, 2013: Don't expect a digital windfall

Expectations should be tempered as New Zealand prepares for the 700 MHz spectrum auction later this year. Britain’s recent 4G auction fell well short of targets, raising £1.2 billion less than the government had pencilled in.

While there has been speculation that an open auction here could raise $200 million, that figure looks ambitious. Carriers were burned by overpaying for 3G spectrum in 2001 and will be wary of repeating the mistake.

The stakes are high. The 700 MHz band is the "prime real estate" for mobile carriers because it is better at penetrating buildings in cities and covers larger rural areas with fewer cell sites. There is also the Māori spectrum claim, which could be used as a bargaining counter for iwi to gain market influence.

June 25, 2013: Tuanz warns of a cosy duopoly

In its submission on the auction, Tuanz warns of a return to the duopoly that dominated mobile before 2degrees arrived.

With 45 MHz for sale, Tuanz fears that if the government caps holdings at 20 MHz, the two big players could grab almost everything, leaving only crumbs for a third party. The user advocacy organisation also caution that a high spectrum price could leave carriers with less money to invest in actual network building—a scenario that was seen in Australia.

October 4, 2013: Telecom NZ throws its hat in the ring

Telecom NZ has officially confirmed it will bid. CEO Simon Moutter explains that the company wants 700 MHz to be its 4G backbone. While current 4G services use the 1800 MHz band, that frequency isn't well-suited for use outside urban areas. The broader coverage of 700 MHz enables a network to be built with significantly less infrastructure, improving the economics of rural 4G.

October 31, 2013: First round goes mainly to plan

The first round mostly followed the script. Telecom NZ and Vodafone each walked away with three 5 MHz paired blocks, while 2degrees picked up two. This means all three carriers now have enough spectrum to build viable 4G networks.

However, 2degrees left one 5 MHz block on the table. The company most likely decided the $22 million reserve price (plus the build costs) didn't offer enough return.

This leaves a dilemma for Communications Minister Amy Adams: sell the last block to a big player and risk a lopsided playing field, or leave it unused to preserve competition.

November 11–19, 2013: Lobbying and media silence

2degrees has launched a vocal campaign against Vodafone’s attempt to buy the remaining block, calling it a "chilling" attempt to monopolise spectrum.

CEO Stewart Sherriff argues Vodafone already has more spectrum than anyone else and is seeking to stall competition.

Interestingly, this special pleading has failed to gain much media traction. Meanwhile, the government has confirmed it will indeed put the leftover block up for a second round of bidding.

Tuanz CEO Paul Brislen calls this "the worst outcome on offer," predicting a bidding war between Telecom and Vodafone that will tilt the market.

January 22, 2014: The $83 million final bid

Telecom NZ bid and paid $83 million for the final 5 MHz slice of the 700 MHz band. The price revealing both the real value of the spectrum and just how desperate the competition to own it became. The bid price is nearly four times the $22 million reserve.

Overall, Telecom NZ secured 20 MHz, Vodafone 15 MHz and 2degrees 10 MHz. By paying a massive premium to deny Vodafone a commanding lead, Telecom has secured its 4G future but at a high cost.

Analysis suggests it paid roughly twice the average price-per-MHz-per-person paid by European carriers. The pressure is now on the company to make that investment pay off.