Scoring my 2025 predictions

I did my usual 20 predictions for the upcoming year last December. How did I go?

1. National will outpoll Labour in at least 90% of public polls in 2025. Wrong National only outpolled in just over 50% of them. 0/1
2. Wayne Brown is re-elected Mayor of Auckland. Easy 1/1.
3. Floating mortgage rates are below 6% by the end of 2025. BNZ is at 5.84% so just made it. 1/1
4. Carmel Sepuloni will become Leader of the Labour Party. Nope or not yet. 0/1
5. Pierre Poilievre will be elected PM of Canada, with a majority Government. This was a sure thing until Trump did tariffs on Canada. 0/1
6. If Labour stand a candidate for the Wellington Mayoralty, they will be elected Mayor. Yep thanks Andrew. 1/1
7. PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with at least one Minister dropped out of the Ministry. Yes Melissa Lee gone. 1/1
8. The Government drops its bill to force Internet companies to fund media companies. Dead thanks to Donald Trump. 1/1
9. Two South Island city Mayors are not re-elected. Dunedin and Invercargill have new Mayors. 1/1
10. A Te Pati Maori MP will be referred to the Privileges Committee in 2025. They all were I think! 1/1
11. Unemployment will peak at or before 5.5% in 2025, and then drop. It is at 5.3% so has not exceeded 5.5%. But we don’t yet have Dec 25 data so may not have peaked. 0.5/1
12. Trump will get all his remaining Cabinet picks confirmed. Off memory all but Gaetz he did. 1/1
13. Labor will be re-elected in Australia, but will lose its majority. They were re-elected but increased it. 0.5/1
14. Reform will outpoll Labour in at least five polls in the UK in 2025. Not just in five polls. In almost every poll. 1/1
15. The 2025 budget will have less core crown spending for 25/26 than was forecast in the 2024 budget. The 24 budget forecast $147.7b for 25/26. The 25 budget allocated $150.3b which was more so 0/1.
16. There will be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, lasting at least three months. The Biden ceasefire lasted two months. The Trump one has lasted two months also and looks likely to continue. So 0.5/1
17. There will not be an Ohariu seat after the new boundaries are finalised. Nailed it. 1/1
18. Labour will commit itself to a Capital Gains Tax, if elected. Also right. 1/1
19. At least 15 projects will be consented by the end of 2025 under the new Fast Track Approvals Law. 8 have been consented so far. A further 16 are under are before expert panels. So 0/1 unless a lot get consented in December.
20. The Treaty Principles Bill will not pass its second reading. Easy 1/1

Overall got 13.5 out of 10. Better than last year!

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