Heading into 2026, Democrats are on the brink of success – and self-sabotage

After a victorious November, Democrats appear set to see a blue wave come 2026.

Historical trends are on their side – the party in power almost always loses sets in the midterm – they lead generic Congressional polling by 3-points per RealClearPolitics’ average, and they’ve had a string of off-year wins across the country.

Yet while Democrats’ momentum heading into a crucial midterm year seems intact, there is the very real risk that they shoot themselves in the foot by succumbing to the rise of progressives.

Indeed, Democrats’ slew of recent success’ included the victory of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist who has ignited a wave of similarly-minded progressives, causing a long list of problem for establishment Democrats.

Further, as noted in the Wall Street Journal, Mamdani’s victory propelled “at least 20 Democratic representatives and four senators” to vacate their seats to either avoid a primary loss to progressive candidates, or – more generously – make room for far-left candidates.

Worse still, progressive insurgents will muddy the waters for the entire Democratic Party, even if they are not victorious.

Put another way, while candidates like Mamdani can win in solid-blue echo chambers like New York City or California, emboldening them will force the national Democratic Party further to the left, representing a real danger for anyone who cares about having two viable political parties. 

In California, progressive PAC “Leaders We Deserve” has thrown their support to Planned Parenthood leader Lauren Babb Tomlinson for California’s 6th district and activist Randy Villegas for California’s 22nd.

Progressives’ influence is acutely being felt in the race for the 22nd district, where Villegas hopes to beat moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains. If victorious, Villegas would add to progressive’s power in Washington while simultaneously reducing the number of representatives amenable to bipartisan compromise.

Redistricting aside, CA-22 figures to be a slightly Republican-leaning district, thus Bains may have a real shot at flipping a seat – whereas Villegas likely does not. Boosting Villegas at the expense of Bains may cost Democrats a potentially winnable seat.

Outside of California, the hole Democrats are digging for themselves by letting progressives drive the party is even more apparent. 

In Texas, former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred was “pressured out of a Senate run, to clear the decks for uber-progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett.”

Never mind that Allred outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 6% in 2024 or that Crockett trails every GOP challenger according to 270toWin. 

Also disregard that Texas hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1995.  For progressives, the point is to make noise, regardless of whether Democrats are putting forward the candidate with the best chance to win.

Of course, in a democracy, whoever gets a majority of the votes in a single state or district is the rightful winner. However, progressive dominance of Democrats’ grassroots organizations means that more often than not, the party is advancing the least electable politicians in a general election.

In that same vein, progressive dominance ensures that Democrats’ Congressional caucus is populated by far-left ideologues, not the moderate Democrats who are most likely to find common cause with the GOP in bipartisan solutions to the problems we face as a country. 

A recent report from center-left group Welcome emphasizes the vulnerability this poses. It cites that seven-in-ten (70%) voters find the Democratic party to be “out of touch” and too focused on progressive issues.

Additionally, the report states that most voters believe the party does not care enough about securing the border or lowering crime rates – two key issues that significantly contributed to Harris’ 2024 defeat and threaten to reemerge as major vulnerabilities for Democrats, especially in the 2028 presidential election.

Plainly, Welcome’s report should be a deafening alarm to Democrats. 

It makes clear that the voters who decide presidential elections want Democrats to abandon their extreme, progressive ideology in favor of moderate Democrats, with the side effect of reorienting the entire Democratic Party towards the center. 

And yet, Democrats appear poised to do the opposite. 

Whether out of fear of the far-left or unwillingness to confront the most vocal part of their base on issues like DEI, immigration, the economy, and social issues, moderate Democrats are running the risk of ceding the party to the most unelectable major party platform in modern history.

That being said, some Democrats have already opted to take this centrist approach, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, who seemingly has his eye on a 2028 bid for the Oval Office.

Newsom, one of President Trump’s loudest opponents, has moved to the center in the last few years. 

He’s welcomed conversations with staunch Republicans like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and the late Charlie Kirk, taken a more centrist stance on transgender athletes in sports, and – arguably most importantly – pushed his fellow Democrats to be “more culturally normal” and “less judgmental” earlier this month.

In bucking progressive orthodoxies, Newsom is attempting to appeal to the national electorate Democrats need to return to the White House, which is much more moderate than the far-left.

Regrettably, as the Welcome report makes clear, the effects of the progressive surge have already begun to eat away at the Democratic brand, making the party seem narrow-minded, less practical, and ineffective at a time when they should be solidifying their platform.

Ultimately, if Democrats prove unable to shake off the rise of the progressives, then they will have nobody to blame for their self-sabotage aside from themselves. For the party to be competitive beyond relying on “we’re not Trump,” they will have to find a way to separate themselves from the extremists in their party. 

Conversely, if Democrats decide to follow the lead of progressives like Mamdani and Ocasio-Cortez, they will have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and will cost themselves another election.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.