Álvaro Vargas Llosa: What kind of president will José Antonio Kast be?
José Antonio Kast’s victory in Chile’s presidential election confirms that Latin America is changing direction. Election after election seems to be producing right-wing winners, and not by small margins—in the case of Chile’s new president-elect, by more than 16 points in the runoff (58.2 percent against Jeannette Jara of the Communist Party, who received 41.8 percent).
That said, Brazil and Mexico, the two giants that account for half the region’s population and 57 percent of its gross domestic product, are governed by the left. If elections were held in those countries today, the right would be defeated.
Kast owes his victory to the failure of President Gabriel Boric’s left-wing government on issues like inflation and crime, and the fact that it has perpetuated the poor economic performance that started a decade ago. (In real terms Chile’s economy has barely grown since the second government of Michelle Bachelet, 2014-18.) Nationwide insecurity and undocumented immigration topped other concerns during the campaign.
To win, Kast hid what he is mostly known for—his very conservative, traditional stance on social issues, and his pro-Pinochet views. Considered a member of the “far right” until recently, he is representative of something that has been happening across Latin America and other parts of the world—the displacement of the center-right by a much more affirmative right. What form the new right takes depends very much on the country. In Argentina it is libertarian; in El Salvador it is highly authoritarian; in Bolivia, where Rodrigo Paz recently won the election, it is reformist rather than ideological. Beyond Latin America, in the United States the new right is nationalist and nativist; in France and Germany it is anti-globalist.
What kind of right does Kast incarnate?
In his victory speech he looked and sounded statesman-like and prudent. But he has sent various signals at various stages. He has promised to shrink the government by cutting USD$6 billion from the budget, to open lithium to private investment, and to partially privatize Codelco, the state-owned copper giant, which would seem to put him in Javier Milei’s camp. But he made the expulsion of immigrants and the construction of nativist walls the centerpiece of his campaign, which puts him in the Trump mold, although, unlike the U.S. president, he is a free-marketeer (notwithstanding some concerns about trade agreements, of which his country has 35).
Since his neighbors, particularly Peru, have said they will not allow immigrants expelled from Chile to cross into their territory, it is by no means clear that Kast will be able to deliver. He may be able to obtain clearer results against crime, but some of the measures will require Parliament’s approval. His position there is strong, but he does not enjoy a majority, and the lack of party discipline is notorious. To make up for this, his leadership will have to be very effective.
Where he stands a greater chance of success is on the economy, about which he has clear ideas. Chile was once the symbol of economic success due to its open market policies. Since the second government of Bachelet and the apogee of the revolutionary left, which began to question the socioeconomic model many years ago, the nation’s gross domestic product has suffered (except for the short-lived post-COVID-19 rebound).
The left had led a violent campaign against Chile’s market model in 2019, which had significant support from the middle classes. A majority supported rewriting the constitution and elected a constituent assembly dominated by leftist weirdos. It looked as if Chile would return to old populist socialism, but the excesses of the far left worked wonders, and in 2022 the majority resoundingly rejected the proposed new constitution. Although the voters were angry about poor government services, student debt, and the arrogance of the elites, they supported the essence of the prevalent socioeconomic model.
Kast needs to demonstrate the legitimacy of that model by putting Chile back on the path to economic growth. This will require concentrating heavily on deregulation and cutting taxes and spending, even as he tries to restore law and order. It will also require building coalitions not just with the other right-wing parties but also with the populist centrist party led by the erratic and unpredictable Franco Parisi. If Kast does that and gives less emphasis to populist nativism and the social issues played down in the campaign, he could be in for a big success.
Álvaro Vargas Llosa is a Senior Fellow of the Independent Institute in Oakland, California. His latest book is “Global Crossings: Immigration, Civilization and America.”