Bangladesh’s Big Question: Can It Align With China And Pakistan Without India? – OpEd
Bangladesh is encompassed by India from three sides by land, which connects 30 districts of Bangladesh among 64 districts. About half of its region clearly connects with India. So geographically, Bangladesh can not deny its biggest neighbour at all. Being ousted from the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, A political dilemma continues between Bangladesh and India. The socio-economic perspectives are also changing continuously. On the other hand, the diplomatic, socio-economic relations among Bangladesh, China and Pakistan are evolving profoundly after the 5th August 2024.
The border dispute is one of the main points of interaction between Bangladesh and India. The 4,096-kilometer land boundary between the two nations has a direct impact on border administration, trade, security, and migration. Bilateral talks are often dominated by topics like unlawful crossings, smuggling, the function of border authorities, and instances of violence related to the border. As a result, the border dispute continues to be a delicate and crucial component of Bangladesh-India ties. Another major area connecting Bangladesh with India is trade and commerce. Economic interdependence means that policy decisions on one side of the border often have direct consequences on the other.
For instance, when India restricts onion exports to Bangladesh, farmers in Indian states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh face falling prices and financial distress, leading in some cases to protests and unrest. This highlights how closely intertwined the trade dynamics of the two countries have become. Every year, a large number of patients from Bangladesh travel to India to seek medical treatment, playing a significant role in the healthcare sectors and economies of both countries. This cross-border medical flow reflects gaps in domestic healthcare capacity while also generating substantial revenue for Indian hospitals and related services. At the same time, it underscores the deep people-to-people and economic linkages between Bangladesh and India in the field of healthcare.
The film industries of Bangladesh and India are deeply interconnected, particularly through cultural ties with West Bengal and Assam. Movies and music from these regions enjoy a wide and loyal audience in Bangladesh, reflecting shared language, heritage, and artistic traditions. This strong cross-border cultural consumption strengthens people-to-people connections and reinforces soft power links between the two countries as well. From socio-religious ties, water-sharing arrangements, and historical–political perspectives, it is evident that the relationship between Bangladesh and India is deep and enduring. Shared rivers, intertwined histories, and long-standing cultural and religious connections have shaped a complex but resilient bilateral bond. These factors together make the depth and strength of Bangladesh–India relations difficult to overstate.
Among the areas where Bangladesh can maintain a strong and pragmatic relationship with Pakistan, the economic perspective stands out as a key factor. Trade, investment, and sector-specific cooperation offer opportunities for mutually beneficial engagement despite historical and political sensitivities. Focusing on economic interests allows both countries to build a more stable and interest-driven relationship grounded in practical gains rather than ideology. Pakistan can contribute to regional stability by supplying military capabilities and defense cooperation to Bangladesh. Such engagement may enhance Bangladesh’s defense preparedness, promote capacity-building, and support balance within the regional security environment.
When framed within transparency and confidence-building measures, military cooperation can serve as a stabilizing factor rather than a source of tension. It is expected that ensuring stronger cultural connectivity and soft power intimacy between Pakistan and Bangladesh will expand their bilateral relationship to a broader dimension. People-to-people exchanges, cultural programs, media, and educational cooperation can help build mutual understanding and trust. Such soft power engagement has the potential to deepen ties beyond formal diplomacy and create a more sustainable foundation for long-term relations.
Bangladesh’s relationship with China can deepen significantly through expanded investment in transportation and communication infrastructure, alongside access to advanced technological services. Chinese involvement in ports, railways, roads, and digital connectivity can enhance Bangladesh’s logistical capacity, regional connectivity, and economic efficiency. At the same time, cooperation in technology transfer, smart infrastructure, and digital services can support Bangladesh’s long-term development goals and strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.
Additionally, China can play a role in supporting Bangladesh through military assistance that enhances its defensive capabilities and helps maintain strategic deterrence in relations with India. Beyond security cooperation, China remains Bangladesh’s most viable option for importing critical raw materials at competitive costs and on a large scale. This combination of defense collaboration and economic interdependence can further strengthen Bangladesh–China ties and broaden the scope of their strategic partnership. China can also play a crucial role by becoming the contractor for the Teesta Mega Project, contributing technical expertise, financing, and large-scale implementation capacity to ensure its timely and effective execution.
Overall, with support from Pakistan and China, Bangladesh may enhance its deterrence vis-à-vis India, and this is arguably a realistic assessment. However, considering broader geopolitical, economic, and geographic realities, Bangladesh has limited scope to bypass India and form a standalone alliance with any South Asian country on its own. This is a fact.