Inflation remained elevated in November as Fed considers pausing interest rate cuts

Inflation remained elevated in November at a level well above the Federal Reserve's target rate as policymakers weigh potential interest rate cuts next year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.2% in November compared with September, while it increased to 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Both of the figures were cooler than the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who projected a 0.3% monthly rise and a 3.1% year-over-year figure.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.3% from the prior month and 2.6% from a year ago. The monthly figure was in line with economists' expectations, while the annual number was cooler.

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The release of the November CPI inflation report was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, which concluded last month and impacted data collection, causing the release date to be pushed back from Dec. 10.

High inflation has created severe financial pressures in recent years for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Price hikes are particularly difficult for lower-income Americans, because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paychecks on necessities and have less flexibility to save.

Food prices were up 2.6% in November compared with a year ago, while monthly figures for the last two months were unavailable due to the shutdown. The food at home index was up 1.9% from last year, while the food away from home index was up 3.7%.

Meats, poultry and fish prices were up 6.8% from a year ago, while egg prices were down 13.2% as a supply shortage stemming from an avian flu outbreak has eased. The fruits and vegetables index showed prices up just 0.1% over the last year.

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Energy prices rose 4.2% from last year and were up 1.1% in the last two months. Gas prices were up just 0.9% from a year ago, while fuel oil costs rose 11.3%. Propane, kerosene and firewood prices were down 5.9%. Electricity costs rose 6.9% in November compared with last year, while utility gas service prices were up 9.1%.

Transportation services were up 1.7% from a year ago. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair costs were up 6.9% in the last 12 months, while data on the change in auto insurance costs was unavailable for that period. Airline fares were down 5.4% compared with last year.

Housing prices were up 3% over the last year and were up 0.2% in the past two months. Tenants' and household insurance costs were up 7% from a year ago.

The inflation data comes after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week for the third straight time after its final policy meeting of the year. 

Policymakers were concerned about signs of weakness in the labor market and moved rates lower despite inflation remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Inflation had been trending toward 2% earlier in the year, though the impact of tariff costs being passed on through higher prices pushed CPI inflation to 3%.

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the cut brought rates closer to neutral, putting the central bank in a good position to wait and see how the economic data develops before lowering rates further.

"Today's low inflation reading won't move the needle for the Fed given how noisy the data is," said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "The canceling of the October report makes month-on-month comparisons impossible, for example, while the truncated information-gathering process given the shutdown could have caused systematic biases in the data."

"The Fed will instead focus on the December CPI released in mid-January, just two weeks before its next meeting, as a more accurate bellwether for inflation," Haigh added.

"The Fed said it was in ‘wait-and-see’ mode, and today it got to see inflation moving in the right direction," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "Inflation may still be above target, but today's data made the opening for additional rate cuts just a little wider."

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The November CPI inflation report had little impact on the market's expectations surrounding a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on Jan. 27-28. The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the current target of 3.5% to 3.75% was 73.4%, down slightly from 75.6% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.