How Liverpool’s match load can be an issue for Marseille Champions League clash

Liverpool’s trip to Marseille in the UEFA Champions League phase lands on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at the Orange Vélodrome.

It’s matchday 7 in the new-format league phase, and it comes right in the middle of a January stretch where Liverpool’s match load could become the story. 

Liverpool’s January calendar leaves little margin 

Fixture congestion isn’t one big night, it’s the chain of them.

Liverpool’s published Premier League schedule for January 2026 (via BBC Sport) includes Fulham away (Jan 4), Arsenal away (Jan 8), Burnley at home (Jan 17), Bournemouth away (Jan 24), and Newcastle at home (Jan 31). Inserted between those are two final Champions League dates: Marseille away (Jan 21) and Qarabağ at Anfield (Jan 28).

That’s seven competitive fixtures spread across 29 days before you even ask what else is on the calendar.

The “what else” is domestic cups. Liverpool also have an FA Cup third-round tie on Monday, January 12 (Barnsley). 

Rotation can protect some starters, but a cup tie still carries a physical load and a mental edge: knockout pressure, set-piece battles, and the stop-start rhythm that can be surprisingly draining. 

Arne Slot recently spoke about the visible fatigue of playing four matches in 10 days, and he has questioned how often other teams face “three games in seven days”, noting Liverpool have already hit that pattern several times this season. He admitted he was “almost happy” to be out of the League Cup, as it reduces the volume later on. 

Research supports the worry. A 2022 review of studies on fixture congestion reported that multiple papers found increased match injury incidence under congested schedules. Earlier elite football work has associated match congestion with higher muscle injury rates.

Why Marseille at the Vélodrome can punish tired legs

Marseille has a kinder context ahead. Their listed run has Ligue 1 away at Angers on January 17, Liverpool at home on January 21, and then Lens at home on January 24. Liverpool have to travel to France between Premier League games, which adds a bit more fatigue to the equation. 

This is where match load becomes tactical. A slightly tired team often presses “almost” well: the first forward jump arrives a fraction late, the second line doesn’t squeeze as tightly, and the opposition finds cleaner exits. When the press is less coordinated, defenders do more recovery running toward their own goal, and that kind of defending is physically expensive. At the Vélodrome, a couple of clean Marseille exits can be enough to turn the crowd into an extra player. 

Availability matters as much as tactics. Liverpool have recently been managing injuries and doubts across the squad, and that naturally limits how aggressively you can rotate through a congested month. If one or two more knocks appear in early January, the “rest plan” becomes “who can actually start?” 

International duties will be problematic as well. Mo Salah, for example, is set to leave for the Africa Cup of Nations in mid-December, with Liverpool expecting him back in January. He might arrive in time for Marseille, however, it depends on Egypt’s progress and the timing of his return. However, his involvement in AFCON will surely have inspired some lasting fatigue.

None of this guarantees a Liverpool wobble, and elite teams can win by managing tempo: longer possession spells, earlier substitutions, and selective pressing. But it does explain why Marseille is a match where Liverpool’s match load could be felt in the small, decisive actions. 

Andrei Marius Popescu’s take on the issue 

Andrei Marius Popescu, Romanian data journalist and sports analytics for BetIn1sight Labs, frames this as a probability problem. “Congestion doesn’t mean Liverpool will be poor for sure, but the range of plausible performance widens… obviously from the low side”, he argues. 

That means, the match could be more volatile: “Less consistent pressing, a late-game lapse… any of those could be on the menu during the game,” explains Popescu. Following his reasoning, there are two versions of Liverpool: full-strength, pressing in waves; or managed, pressing in bursts to protect legs.

You can watch Slot’s post-Brighton press conference via Empire of the Kop on YouTube:

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