College Football Playoff first-round preview: rematches, mismatches and lots of home cooking

For 10 years under the College Football Playoff’s four-team model, it was painfully obvious that it was the exception, not the norm, to have more than a couple of teams capable of winning the national championship.

How do we know this? Thirteen of 20 playoff semifinals were decided by at least 17 points. In other words, the semis routinely were blowouts — anticlimactic, after months of playoff buildup, and certainly disappointing for millions of viewers.

But the 12-team model, which debuted last season, arrived anyway, because nothing says “better” like untold additional hours of acute boredom. Who could forget last year’s riveting first-round, in which Texas beat Clemson by 14, Ohio State dominated Tennessee by 25, Penn State rag-dolled SMU by 28 and Notre Dame built a 27-3 fourth-quarter lead on Indiana before the Hoosiers discovered the end zone in garbage time? Gee, no wonder the geniuses behind the playoff are pressing for further expansion.

OK, fine, rant over. Maybe the second batch of first-round, on-campus games will raise the bar. We might even see a team or two play Friday or Saturday that end up going all the way to the championship game, as both Ohio State and Notre Dame did last time.

Let’s get to some predictions:

No. 9 Alabama (10-3) at No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)

Time, TV: 7 p.m. Friday, ABC 7, ESPN.

Line: Alabama -1.

Winner gets: No. 1 Indiana.

Is Alabama really Alabama anymore? Over two seasons since Kalen DeBoer replaced Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide have lost a total of seven times — twice to the Sooners — and seemingly surrendered their intimidating, inimitable mystique to the football gods. This does not appear to be a championship-caliber team. Then again, neither does OU.

Did you watch the Sooners’ 23-21 road win against the Tide in November? The score was a bit misleading. The Tide just about doubled the Sooners’ measly 212 yards of total offense, with quarterback Ty Simpson throwing for 326, but fumbles flipped the script in the end. Why wouldn’t Tide receivers get loose again in the rematch?

DeBoer’s name was linked to Penn State’s opening, and since then to Michigan’s. There’s a sense among many — especially in Tuscaloosa — that he doesn’t belong in Saban’s shoes. Then again, who does?

“Our guys are focused on Oklahoma,” DeBoer said this week. “What’s internal is what matters.”

Tide, 24-20.

No. 10 Miami (10-2) at No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)

Time, TV: 11 a.m., ABC 7, ESPN.

Line: Texas A&M -3½.

Winner gets: No. 2 Ohio State.

The complete list of bowl teams Miami has beaten since its season-opening win against Notre Dame: South Florida, Louisville, NC State and Pittsburgh. That’s it. That’s what’s supposed to have the rest of college football quaking in its boots.

There is no question the Hurricanes have the talent to be dangerous. Reuben Bain is a monster on the defensive line. Malachi Toney is everywhere on offense. There’s no shortage of stars, and, as coach Mario Cristobal would tell it, there’s no shortage of confidence.

“We believe strongly that this team is wired in the right manner,” he said.

Man, it better be at Kyle Field, where 100,000-plus fans will be out for blood. The Aggies have a QB in Marcel Reed who can keep drives alive with his legs, a ferocious pass rush underpinning the other side of the ball and one of the great home-field scenes in college football. Aggies, 34-24.

No. 11 Tulane (11-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (10-2)

Time, TV: 2:30 p.m., TNT, truTV, HBO Max.

Line: Ole Miss -17½.

Winner gets: No. 3 Georgia.

Raise your hand if you’re so revved up to see these teams play again, you can hardly stand it. Hello? Anyone?

The first meeting, in September, ended in a 45-10 Ole Miss victory, a score that barely does justice to how one-sided it was. The Rebels nearly tripled Tulane’s output through the air — 307-104 — with big catches of 53 yards by Dae’Quan Wright, 53 by De’Zhaun Stribling, 47 by Cayden Lee and 35 by Deuce Alexander. They also rushed for 241 yards.

“We’re going to sit on this one and let it hurt for a little while,” Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall said that day, “because it should.”

Does it still hurt? Either way, it’s about to all over again, 38-17.

No. 12 James Madison (12-1) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1)

Time, TV: 6:30 p.m., TNT, truTV, HBO Max.

Line: Oregon -21½.

Winner gets: No. 4 Texas Tech.

If coach Curt Cignetti of No. 1-ranked Indiana has taught us anything, it’s to leave room for the possibility that a good, tough, smart, little-engine-that-could kind of team can make us look like imbeciles for doubting it. You already know what Cignetti has done with the Hoosiers. You should know by now that he went to Indiana from James Madison, which he built into a mini-monster.

The Dukes are 12-1. You think they’re scared of the Ducks?

The Dukes have a dream. They have belief. They …

All right, show’s over. Ducks, 52-7.