Olympic Selection Criteria and Nationals Preview: Who Will Make Team Japan?

With the 2026 Milano Olympic Games just around the corner, Japan continues to shine bright as one of the world’s leading nations in figure skating. With one of the deepest pools of talent in the world, the Japanese Skating Federation now faces challenging choices for its Olympic team, set to officially be announced at the end of this week.

To spare fans a nervous breakdown, we’ve put together a clear guide summarizing how the federation will pick its team for the Olympics across all four disciplines, along with the skaters to keep an eye on at this week’s National Championships!

Olympic Selection Criteria Outline

The selection criteria for women’s and men’s singles are the same and will consider skaters’ results at the National Championships and the Grand Prix Final, as well as ISU season-best scores, ISU world standings, the federation’s internal ranking system, and results at the Eastern/Western Sectional Championships and Junior National Championships.

For the pairs and ice dance disciplines, selection will be determined by results from the National Championships, ISU season-best scores, and ISU world standings.

In addition to those established criteria, selection across all disciplines will also be based on an overall comprehensive evaluation of each athlete’s performances up to the National Championships.

While the criteria consider a skater’s entire season, placements at Nationals, as in previous years, will carry significant weight. Therefore, earning a medal or delivering a strong performance at this event is essential to stay in contention for one of the coveted spots.

Women’s and Men’s Singles: First Olympic Spot

The first Olympic spot goes to the winner of the National Championships (TBD), as per JSF rules. While the full team will be officially announced at a press conference, fans will already know the winners once the women’s and men’s free skates conclude. This is the only spot that requires no further deliberation, as the winner will be automatically selected for the team.

Women’s and Men’s Singles: Second Olympic Spot

The second Olympic spot will go to a skater chosen from a pool of athletes who meet any of the following criteria:

• Silver or bronze medalists at the National Championships (TBD)
• Top two finishers at the Grand Prix Final
• Top three ISU season-best scores

While meeting one criterion is enough for eligibility, selection for the spot generally recognizes skaters who meet the greatest number of criteria.

Women’s and Men’s Singles: Third Olympic Spot

The final Olympic spot will be awarded to a skater chosen from a pool up to three athletes who check any of the following criteria:

• Any athlete who met the criteria for the second spot but was ultimately not selected
• Top three skaters with the highest ISU world standings
• Top three skaters with the highest federation’s internal ranking system points, based on points earned in the Grand Prix series and Challenger Series events. If a skater competed in two Challenger Series events, their points are averaged.
• Top three skaters by average competition scores, calculated from international events and/or Eastern or Western Sectionals at the senior or junior level, and Junior Nationals. Skaters with only one competition are not eligible for this criterion.

The final spot tends to require the most deliberation. A clear choice might not be obvious, as several skaters could be closely matched at the end of the event. An overall assessment of each athlete’s performance leading up to the National Championships will play a key role.

Women’s Preview | Olympic Qualification Standings

Top two finishers at the Grand Prix Final:
1. Ami Nakai (silver)
2. Kaori Sakamoto (bronze)

Top three ISU season-best scores:
1. Kaori Sakamoto (227.18)
2. Ami Nakai (227.08)
3. Mone Chiba (217.23)

Top three skaters with the highest ISU world standings:
1. Kaori Sakamoto (1)
2. Mone Chiba (2)
3. Hana Yoshida (11)

Top three skaters with the highest federation’s internal ranking system points:
1. Ami Nakai (1390)
2. Kaori Sakamoto (1318)
3. Mone Chiba (1210)

Top three skaters by average competition scores:
1. Kaori Sakamoto (225.70)
2. Ami Nakai (223.99)
3. Mone Chiba (217.22)

Kaori Sakamoto

Counting the remaining competitions on her fingers, Olympic medalist and three-time World Champion Kaori Sakamoto announced that she will retire at the end of the season. The 25-year-old closed her final Grand Prix season with silver in France and gold in Japan, before qualifying for the Grand Prix Final for the fourth consecutive time. There, Sakamoto encountered difficulties in both the short and free programs, popping jumps in decisive combinations and ultimately taking bronze. Still hungry for more after a third-place finish, she will look to clean up technical mistakes and solidify her status as Japan’s frontrunner. The fan favorite is the only women’s skater to have fulfilled all Olympic qualification criteria, placing her name at the top of the list. As a result, she will aim to capture her final National Championships title, extending her already impressive five-title streak. Leading the Japanese women one last time this season, Sakamoto is skating toward her third and final Olympic Games, the culmination of 21 years of skating.

Ami Nakai

Fresh out of the junior ranks last season, Ami Nakai was not considered an Olympic contender until now. Making her senior debut this year, she quickly emerged as a threat to the world’s top skaters. The 17-year-old medaled at both of her Grand Prix assignments, even upsetting Sakamoto to win gold in France. She then went on to capture the silver medal at the Final, finishing ahead of all Japanese women in her first appearance. Nakai ticks all the boxes across the selection criteria, though as a newcomer to the senior ranks, she remains behind the more experienced Japanese skaters in the ISU World Standings. Her edge in the Olympic selection process lies in the high scores she posted this season, as well as her consistency in reaching the podium at every competition she entered. In addition, Nakai attempts the triple Axel in both the short and free programs, earning valuable extra points. If she can replicate this season’s success, she will be rewarded with one of Japan’s three Olympic spots.

Mone Chiba

After earning silver at the Grand Prix Final and bronze at the World Championships last season, Four Continents champion Mone Chiba entered this year as a strong Olympic team contender. In her third senior season, she quickly demonstrated consistency, capturing gold at both the Canadian and Finnish Grand Prix events. Chiba was the only woman to qualify for the Final with a perfect 30 points this year. Leading after the short program, she fell on two downgraded jumps in the free skate, unexpectedly dropping to fifth overall. Despite the disappointing result, her earlier scores this season still place her high on the Olympic contention list. She ranks in the top three for every selection criterion, with the only exception being a first- or second-place finish at the Grand Prix Final. With just two weeks to reset, Chiba will need to deliver two strong performances and reach the podium at the National Championships to secure her Olympic ticket, a challenge well within her reach.

Rinka Watanabe

With a triple Axel already in her short, Rinka Watanabe took her technical content to a new level this season, successfully incorporating a triple Axel–triple Toeloop combination and a solo triple Axel into her free. She backed up these upgrades with a silver and a bronze at her Grand Prix assignments and secured a spot in the Final for the second time in her career. Next in line after Sakamoto, Nakai, and Chiba, Watanabe will need to outperform Rion Sumiyoshi at the National Championships to maintain her position as a challenger, as both skaters are closely matched across the selection criteria. Watanabe could hold a slight edge, however, thanks to her Grand Prix Final appearance. To keep her Olympic hopes alive, she must deliver a podium finish at Nationals and land her triple Axels cleanly, putting on two performances capable of impressing the audience and shaking up the selection process.

Rion Sumiyoshi

Rion Sumiyoshi started her season strongly, winning gold at the Lombardia Trophy in the Challenger Series and adding another bronze to her three existing Grand Prix medals from France. However, her hopes of qualifying for the Grand Prix Final were cut short when she placed seventh in her second assignment, unable to deliver the performances that had brought her success earlier in the season. Despite this setback, Sumiyoshi posted a season’s best of 216.06 points and an average top score of 212.82, which remain her strongest assets in the selection process. Alongside junior sensation Mao Shimada, Sumiyoshi is the only other skater attempting a quadruple Toeloop at the National Championships and was the first Japanese woman to land it successfully in competition. Like Watanabe, she will need perfect programs and a podium finish at the National Championships. If she rises to the occasion, a strong showing could thrust her into the mix for an Olympic berth.

Men’s Preview | Olympic Qualification Standings

Top two finishers at the Grand Prix Final:
1. Yuma Kagiyama (silver)
2. Shun Sato (bronze)

Top three ISU season-best scores:
1. Yuma Kagiyama (302.41)
2. Shun Sato (292.08)
3. Kao Miura (253.69)

Top three skaters with the highest ISU world standings:
1. Yuma Kagiyama (2)
2. Shun Sato (2)
3. Kao Miura (11)

Top three skaters with the highest federation’s internal ranking system points:
1. Yuma Kagiyama (1390)
2. Shun Sato (1267)
3. Kazuki Tomono (860.05)

Top three skaters by average competition scores:
1. Yuma Kagiyama (294.82)
2. Shun Sato (288.90)
3. Kazuki Tomono (253.01)

Yuma Kagiyama

Following Shoma Uno’s retirement in 2024, Olympic silver medalist Kagiyama has established himself as Japan’s leading men’s skater, taking on the expectations that come with guiding the men’s field through this new Olympic cycle. This season, the 22-year-old has won both of his Grand Prix events, becoming the only man of his country to achieve the feat. He later added a silver medal at the Grand Prix Final, where he set a new personal best in the short program and surpassed the 300-point mark for the first time since last year’s NHK Trophy. While his technical prowess has fallen slightly behind compared to past performances, it is his majestic program components that truly set him apart from the rest of the field. ranking among the best on the senior circuit. Based on his results and placements this season, he is the only Japanese man to fulfill all Olympic selection criteria at the top level. Entering the National Championships, Kagiyama has his sights set on capturing a second national title as he continues his road to Milano.

Shun Sato

In this Olympic spot race, Shun Sato has shown remarkable consistency so far, placing him as Japan’s second-ranked man behind Kagiyama. After dealing with injury at the start of the season, Sato rebounded quickly following a fourth-place finish on the Challenger Series and went on to win gold at his first Grand Prix assignment before adding a silver at his second. He has stood out as the most consistent Japanese male skater this season, delivering three flawless free skate performances on the Grand Prix Series. With completely clean protocols each time, Sato rose to the occasion and claimed bronze at the Final for the second consecutive year. When it comes to Olympic selection, Sato meets all the criteria alongside Kagiyama. While his place on the team already appears secure, Sato will be looking to carry the momentum from this season’s successful performances into a podium finish at the National Championships.

Kao Miura

Four Continents champion Kao Miura’s Olympic season began under a shadow. From September to October, still nursing an injury, he delivered poor performances one after another. Reaching a new low at the Grand Prix of France, he crumbled in the free skate to place tenth overall, a result hard to digest. Disappointed, Miura had been struck by a sudden mental block and unable to shake off the weight on his mind. However, things started to shift for the better at the Canadian Grand Prix. Securing the bronze medal with a new season’s best score of the season, he appeared to regain both his form and confidence. Thanks to this stronger result and his standing in the ISU world rankings, Miura is currently tied with Tomono in the race for one of Japan’s Olympic spot. With Tomono also meeting two other selection criteria, the stage is set for a high-stakes showdown at the National Championships. If Miura hopes to remain in contention, he must deliver stronger performances that reflect both the physical and mental progress he has made since Canada.

Kazuki Tomono

Veteran Kazuki Tomono opened the season on a solid note. Despite a few mistakes along the way, he managed to stay competitive, narrowly missing the podium at Skate Canada with a fourth-place finish. Two weeks later, Tomono led the short program at Skate America but had a rough free skate. Nonetheless, he bounced back with a bronze medal. As a result, Tomono remains firmly in contention for one of Japan’s coveted Olympic spots. Tied with Miura, he is ranked higher within JSF’s personal point ranking criteria and in the total average score criteria as well. With Miura meeting the two other criteria, the two skaters will have no room for mistakes at the National Championships, as the highest placed skater between the two will likely clench the spot. Tomono stands closer to the goal than ever, yet with even the slightest slip potentially costly, he must fight and unleash the fierce competitive fire within him.

Sota Yamamoto

Sota Yamamoto’s season also got off to a difficult start after he sustained a lower-back hernia injury over the summer. Already in Georgia for his Challenger assignment, the 25-year-old was forced to withdraw. Yamamoto was still dealing with the injury through the first half of the season and struggled on the Grand Prix Series as well, finishing ninth and sixth at his assignments. But at the Finlandia Trophy, he showed clear signs of improvement, most notably in a far stronger free skate since the Grand Prix of China. He earned a new season’s best and managed to wrap up his Grand Prix series on a more encouraging note than how it began. Even with strong performances, an Olympic spot appears to remain out of reach for Yamamoto as he has yet to meet any of the selection criteria. Heading into the National Championships, he will hope to return healthier and more confident, turning a difficult season into one of perseverance and growth.

Pairs: First and Second Olympic Spots

Japan’s two spots will go to the two teams fulfilling any of the following criteria, with the selection also being supported by a comprehensive evaluation:

• Gold or silver medalists at the National Championships
• The team with the highest ISU world standing at the time
• The team with the highest ISU season-best score at the time

Pairs Preview | Olympic Qualification Standings

The team with the highest ISU world standing at the time:
1. Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara (1)
2. Yuna Nagaoka and Sumitada Moriguchi (17)

The team with the highest ISU season-best score at the time:
1. Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara (225.21)
2. Yuna Nagaoka and Sumitada Moriguchi (202.11)

Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara

Fresh off their gold at their home Grand Prix Final, Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara have long been the face of Japan’s pairs skating for the past few seasons. The duo began the season at the Nebelhorn Trophy, finishing second to Hase and Volodin, before going undefeated in the Grand Prix Series. They currently hold the top spot in the ISU World Standings and the highest season’s best score of 225.21 among all international teams. Without a doubt, the team secured Japan’s first Olympic spot with ease. While the National Championships may not carry the same level of pressure as international events, the team will treat the championships as a key opportunity to perfect their programs and gain momentum going into their second Games together. In just two months, the duo, who have revolutionized Japanese pairs skating, will aim to make history as the country’s first-ever Olympic gold medalists in the discipline.

Yuna Nagaoka and Sumitada Moriguchi

This season proved historic for Yuna Nagaoka and Sumitada Moriguchi, as they made history by earning Japan’s second pairs spot at the Olympic Games. After failing to advance to the free skate at the World Championships in Boston earlier this year, the duo was sent to the 2025 ISU Skate to Milano in September to try and secure another ticket. Despite looking a little nervous in both segments, the pair ultimately claimed the final ISU spot for the 2026 Olympics, marking a milestone for Japanese figure skating. Both starting out as singles skaters, Nagaoka and Moriguchi have made remarkable progress since the start of their partnership. They surpassed the 200-point mark for the first time in their career at the Japanese Grand Prix, the ninth highest scores among pairs teams this season. Steadily and surely, the young team will make their Olympic debut, beginning to carve out their own legacy.

Ice Dance (Team Event Spot)

Although Japan did not earn a quota for the individual ice dance event at the Olympics, they are still eligible to enter a team for the team event. The selection will be made among teams meeting one or more of the following requirements, based on a comprehensive review:

• Gold or silver medalists at the National Championships
• The team with the highest ISU world standing
• The team with the highest ISU season-best score

Ice Dance Preview | Olympic Qualification Standings

The team with the highest ISU world standing at the time
1. Utana Yoshida and Masaya Morita (38)

The team with the highest ISU season-best score at the time
1. Utana Yoshida and Masaya Morita (167.96)

Utana Yoshida and Masaya Morita

While narrowly missing qualification for the individual event at the 2025 ISU Skate to Milano in September, Utana Yoshida and Masaya Morita will still have the chance to shine on the Olympic stage alongside their teammates in the Olympic Team Event. Under the guidance of Cathy Reed, the two have quickly become a pillar of Japanese ice dance over the past two years. Last season, Yoshida/Morita hit a new key milestone and captured their first National title together, followed by another gold medal at the 2025 Asian Winter Games. Regarding Olympic qualification, the team had already secured the minimum technical score required back at the 2024 Nebelhorn Trophy, achieving a combined total of 96.56, 10 points higher than the score set by the ISU. As no other Japanese ice dance teams has surpassed the 85-point mark so far this season, they are the nation’s sole eligible contender for the spot. Aiming to defend their crown, they enter the National Championships once again as favorites for gold.

Ikura Kushida and Koshiro Shimada

Back in May, the skating world was taken by surprise when Ikura Kushida and Koshiro Shimada announced their partnership, with Shimada stepping away from singles and Kushida simultaneously juggling both singles and ice dance. After winning the Sectional Championships, the team was sent to compete at the Golden Spin of Zagreb. This competition was their only opportunity to earn the minimum technical score needed to have a chance at contending with Yoshida/Morita for Japan’s Olympic Team Event ice dance spot. The team came close to achieving the ISU technical minimum score but eventually fell just 1.56 points short. While both Kushida and Shimada have competed at the National Championships as singles skaters before, this will be their first appearance together as an ice dance team. Adding to the challenge, Kushida has also qualified for the women’s singles event and will be competing in both disciplines. The duo has shown enough potential to comfortably aim for the silver medal.

Rika Kihira and Shingo Nishiyama

Like Kushida and Shimada’s, Rika Kihira and Shingo Nishiyama’s partnership also came as a complete surprise to fans. Nishiyama’s former partner, Azusa Tanaka, announced her retirement from the sport this summer, while Kihira, the 2018-19 Grand Prix Final Champion and two-time Four Continents Champion, had now been kept out of singles competition for three years by a persistent right ankle injury. After a few trials, the two decided to take a chance on their partnership, with Kihira aiming to still pursue singles skating on the side. So far this season, Kihira/Nishiyama have only competed at the Western Sectional Championships. The competition marked Kihira’s first steps as an ice dancer. They finished third overall with 136.74 points behind Kushida/Shimada and Sasaki/Ikeda, after placing second in the rhythm dance but dropping to fourth place in the free dance. With just over three months of experience skating together, Kihira/Nishiyama’s pursuit of National bronze will rely on their own progress and performance.

Olympic Team Event: Team Japan

Selection will be made from athletes already chosen for the individual events, taking into account strategy and their condition at the time of the team event. In line with past practice, Japan is expected to send two skaters in both the men’s and women’s singles events, while relying on a single pair and a single ice dance team to cover both segments.

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