If this is the Phillies’ 2026 offense, did they do enough?
At the very least, Adolis Garcia will offer the Phillies a substantial defensive and speed advantage in right field over what they had, which alone makes this week’s one-year, $10 million signing an upgrade.
How much of an upgrade? That depends on the bat.
Like Nick Castellanos, Garcia swings and misses a ton. Over the last two seasons, Castellanos has MLB’s third-worst swinging strike rate (16.0%) and Garcia is fifth (15.8%).
Like Castellanos, Garcia swings at everything. Over the last two seasons, Castellanos has MLB’s eighth-highest chase rate at 39.1% and Garcia ranks 16th at 34.4%.
Garcia has had a better batted ball profile with more hard contact than Castellanos in recent seasons and the Phillies are hoping his luck turns a bit in 2026. Really, they’d be ecstatic if Garcia delivered the sort of consistency he gave the Rangers in 2023, when he posted an OPS between .766 and .934 each month. In 2025, he had only one month with an OPS over .728.
In a few ways, the Phillies are getting a very similar right fielder — streaky and free swinging. In a few ways, they’re getting a very different right fielder — above-average speed with one of the top outfield arms. Importantly, Garcia should add fire and spirit to a clubhouse that skews older and is filled with veterans who quietly go about their business. Garcia and Edmundo Sosa are buddies and the infusion of more positive energy can’t hurt.
Are the Phillies any better off?
Following the signing of Garcia, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the outfield is essentially set. It will be Garcia in right, Brandon Marsh in left field (with a platoon partner) and rookie Justin Crawford in center field.
The outfield will be more athletic on Opening Day 2026 than it was on Opening Day 2025. But when you start to put the pieces together, it’s hard to see how this offense’s floor or ceiling has been raised by the changes so far this offseason. Garcia in, Castellanos out. Crawford in, Harrison Bader likely out because of the contract he’s seeking. At best, that’s a wash, and it’s probably worse than a wash considering Bader hit .305/.361/.463 in 50 games as a Phillie last season. Bader is unlikely to repeat that next season but it’s still production the lineup needed and must try to replace.
It’s not even Christmas yet, so there’s a ton of time for the Phillies to tinker more with their team. On Wednesday, they did so by agreeing to a two-year, $22 million contract with hard-throwing setup man Brad Keller, according to The Athletic. But where would any other offensive changes come?
After the Garcia signing and including the expected agreement with catcher J.T. Realmuto, this is the Phillies’ projected 2026 lineup:
- Trea Turner, SS
- Kyle Schwarber, DH (L)
- Bryce Harper, 1B (L)
- Alec Bohm, 3B
- Brandon Marsh, LF (L)
- Adolis Garcia, RF
- J.T. Realmuto, C
- Bryson Stott, 2B (L)
- Justin Crawford, CF (L)
It’s a good lineup. The team will win 90-plus games and likely the NL East, especially given the Mets’ subtractions. But the goal around here has been loftier than a division crown for quite some time. The goal is to win it all. A very similar version of that lineup above fell dead silent three Octobers in a row as it was eliminated from playoff contention. Through all of that, one real offensive change was made from 2024 to 2025 (Max Kepler), and now Kepler turns into Garcia as the Phillies make the one additional change to integrate Crawford.
How the lineup can improve
We’ve seen the version of the Phillies’ offense where Schwarber hits 56 home runs. We’ve seen the version of the Phillies’ offense where Turner wins a batting title. We’ve seen the version of the Phillies’ offense where Harper wins MVP. That trio still has massive offensive value but there’s an extreme gap between them and the six hitters following them.
So how can this lineup, if this is the lineup, be better than it was in 2025?
Obviously, the Phils need more from Bohm and Marsh. Bohm turns 30 next August and will likely make more than $10 million this season. He needs to do more than he did last year, when he slumped early and rebounded to hit .287 but with no power. He’s never going to be a big home run hitter but the doubles completely disappeared in 2026. If he’s hitting seventh, then maybe he can be a .287 singles hitter, but not at four or five.
Marsh also slumped early before recovering and finishing at .280/.342/.443. The Phillies would absolutely take that slash-line again in 2026, but as Marsh’s role has increased in this offense, so too does the need for more season-long reliability. He’s also been a relatively easy out two postseasons in a row, going 2-for-26.
Stott, at this point, is here much more for defense than offense but it would go a long way if he, too, could just hit .275 with a league-average on-base percentage.
The potential of a Garcia bounce-back exists and that would also be a huge boost, but as with theoretical improvements for Bohm, Marsh and Stott, you’re basically flipping a coin.
Why Crawford is so important
Crawford could be the key to the entire offense. (No pressure, rook.) If he is a typical rookie with highs and lows who spends the year batting ninth, he might not make much of an offensive impact.
But what if he hits .290 his first month in the bigs? What if he shows manager Rob Thomson and the Phillies’ front office that he can be a viable leadoff candidate? It’s a huge if, but it would elongate the lineup by one crucial spot.
This is Year 4 of the Phillies trying to put the finishing touches on a team they think can win a World Series. There was the surprise surge in 2022, a dominant 7-1 playoff start in 2023, a 95-win season in 2024 and a 96-win season in 2025. It’s a complicated spot for a front office to find itself in, knowing the team is likely good enough to win the division and maybe even 100 games, but also knowing that to win that elusive title, it will need even more to break right in 2026 than it has the prior four years.