Trade Profile: Joe Ryan, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (6/5/1996)
2025 Traditional Stats: 31 G, 171 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 194 SO, 39 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 125 ERA+, 28.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.44 xERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, 3.1 fWAR
Contract Status: Second year arb eligible for 2026, free agent after 2027

To trade an ace or not to trade an ace, that is the question. Whether you want to argue that Joe Ryan is a top ten starting pitcher in baseball or that he should not be in the top 40, there is an argument that impacts both sides of that debate. But regardless of that, the Twins have been rumored to have considered trading their starter since the last trade deadline, and if they are to move him, they are expected to want a hefty return. In his December 2 article, Jeff Passan of ESPN gave Ryan a 50% chance of being traded. Since then, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that the Twins do not anticipate moving Ryan this offseason. If Joe Ryan is available, many teams would likely consider him among the top five best starting pitchers available.

Early Career

After being drafted in the seventh round in 2018 by the Tampa Bay Rays, Joe Ryan was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher. Ryan pitched only nine innings with the Twins in Triple-A before being called up on Sept. 1, 2021, against the Chicago Cubs. He pitched five innings, with three earned runs and five strikeouts.

Across his first three seasons, he pitched 335.1 innings to a 4.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a 27.5% K% and 6.3% BB%. Then, in 2024, Ryan took a step forward. He added two MPH to his fastball, four MPH to his splitter, two MPH to his sweeper, and four MPH to his slider. He also improved his extension from 6.5 to 6.8 feet, making those pitches appear even faster. This led to increased spin and movement overall and he pitched to a 3.60 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with a 27.3% K% and 4.3% BB%. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury in August cut his season short at 135 innings pitched.

Current Run

Ryan kept most of his velocity and extension gains in 2025 and pitched a career-high 171 innings, with a career-best 3.42 ERA. He also had a 1.04 WHIP, a 28.2% K%, and 5.7% BB%.

His fastball ranked the tenth best in baseball last year by run value at +18 between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hunter Brown. He throws it from a 25-degree arm angle with a unique movement profile of 13.6 inches of iBV and 12.6 inches of horizontal break. Last year, he generated a 26.9% whiff rate and 24.7% chase rate with that pitch. He throws his sweeper with above-average spin at 2,786 RPM, and his -15.8 inches of horizontal break was in the top 23% of sweeper movement in 2023. His splitter had the fifth most arm side run at 15.2 inches of horizontal break. While his sinker did get hit, leading to a .292 batting average against, he also generated a 21.8% put-away rate with it. His slider was much better at limiting hard contact with a .321 SLG against, and he generated a 42.9% whiff rate with his high-spin (2816 RPM) curveball, which he threw 3.9% of the time. This year was the first year he threw a curveball since 2022.

His Statcast bubbles on Baseball Savant may not jump out at you at first glance:

• 37th percentile in fastball velocity (93.6 MPH)
• 37th percentile in hard hit rate (41.9%)
• 22nd percentile in ground ball rate (36.9%)
• 26th percentile in average exit velocity (90.2 MPH)
• 14th percentile in chase rate (25.2%)
• 6th percentile in barrel rate (11.5%)

But when you look deeper, you see a pitcher with four plus pitches who is not afraid to attack the zone and challenge batters.

• 95th percentile in zone percent (55%)
• 94th percentile in zone contact (78.1%)
• 94th percentile in K-BB% (22.1%)
• 87th percentile in BB% (5.7%)
• 84th percentile in K% (28.2%)
• 82nd percentile in xBA (.213)
• 80th percentile in extension (6.8 feet)
• 77nd percentile in xWOBA (.307)
• 57th percentile in whiff rate (26.1%)

Trade Package

Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioned in his Dec. 4 article that Joe Ryan was of interest to the Mets and that the Twins are believed to like Jonah Tong. This sets a good high-end return that the Twins could negotiate down from if they decide to pursue a trade.

It is hard to find a perfect trade comp for Joe Ryan from recent seasons, but the closest are probably Luis Castillo in 2022 to the Mariners, Yu Darvish to the Padres in 2020 and Dylan Cease to the Padres in 2024.

Luis Castillo was traded for infielder Noelvi Marte, and pitchers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Marte was the number 11 prospect at the time. This was a trade deadline move during the 2022 season.

Darvish was traded alongside catcher Victor Caratini for pitcher Zach Davies, shortstop Reginald Preciado, outfielder Owen Caissie, outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana. None of those prospects were considered top 100 prospects at the time.

Dylan Cease was traded for pitcher Drew Thorpe, outfielder Samuel Zavala, and pitchers Jairo Iriarte and Steven Wilson. Thorpe was the 85th-ranked prospect in baseball at the time of the trade.

I am proposing the Mets trade

Twins receive:

• Infielder/outfielder A.J. Ewing
• Starting pitcher Brandon Sproat 
• Infielder Ronny Mauricio

Mets receive:

• Starting Pitcher Joe Ryan

Recommendation

With AJ Ewing and Brandon Sproat likely to place comfortably on top 100 lists when they update, and Mauricio being a former top 100 prospect, this is a hefty trade. I don’t know if the Mets would be willing to part with much more, especially with how highly David Stearns spoke about AJ Ewing at the winter meetings. I also don’t know whether the Twins would accept the package or hold Joe Ryan until at least the deadline.

But if he could be acquired for this package, I think it would be a good move.

 

 

 

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