The statistician’s edge: Using historical football data to understand betting markets

Online sportsbook operators are renowned for using a vast array of statistical information to formulate their betting markets.

Historical data is one of a plethora of elements that oddsmakers assess before publishing their prices for any sporting event.

For example, reputable horse racing sites take previous trends into account when they piece together the betting market for each race.

Studying the historical data can help punters uncover data which helps them to make a more informed choice with their horse racing wagers.

It is a similar story in football, where previous results and trends can be a hugely informative guide to future outcomes in the sport.

With that in mind, read on as we assess how bettors can use historical football data to gain a better understanding of betting markets.

Historical data is an invaluable resource for football bettors

Savvy football punters understand the value of using historical data to identify trends which help them to predict outcomes more accurately.

Bettors now have an abundance of data they can use to determine whether the odds in a specific football betting market offer value.

Bookmakers rely heavily on the same information to create their markets. However, there are instances where the oddsmakers don’t get things right.

Previous historical performance is not the only factor punters must consider, but it can help them to identify opportunities to beat the bookies.

For example, Newcastle United were rated as 5/4 shots to win at Sunderland last weekend. The Black Cats were priced at 11/5 to win the game.

However, Sunderland were unbeaten in seven home games in the Premier League this season. They were also unbeaten in their last nine league meetings with the Magpies.

Sunderland were undoubtedly the value bet in this fixture, and duly delivered the goods for punters by recording a well-deserved 1-0 victory.

While historical trends of this nature do not guarantee a future outcome, this instance highlights why it is sensible to factor them into your betting.

Striking the right balance between data and human judgement

Football can be extremely unpredictable. If it wasn’t, no Premier League teams would ever be defeated by lower-ranked opponents in the FA Cup.

For example, historical data tells us that Liverpool should beat Barnsley in the third round of the competition next month.

The reigning champions have an expensively assembled squad, home advantage and have lifted the prestigious trophy on eight previous occasions.

By contrast, Barnsley are in League One and have never won major silverware since 1911/12. This fixture is the definition of ‘home banker’.

That was also the case when the two sides met at Anfield in the fifth round of the same competition in February 2008.

Liverpool were big favourites to win that game, but manager Rafa Benitez’s decision to start with midfielder Steven Gerrard on the bench backfired.

Barnsley triumphed 2-1 on that occasion, highlighting why punters must use other information alongside historical data to inform their wagering activities.

Gerrard’s absence from the starting XI boosted Barnsley’s chances of winning the game and was a factor punters could have used to their advantage.

The final word

The use of historical football data will continue to play a key role in helping football punters understand the nuances of betting markets.

As artificial intelligence (AI) technology becomes more sophisticated, data utilisation will become even more embedded in the football betting sector.

While bookmakers will believe this gives them an edge, shrewd punters can use the same information and their knowledge of the sport to capitalise on any missteps.

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