Bears in prime position for playoff berth, but it's delicate heading into final 3 games

Bears coach Ben Johnson has been saying for weeks that his team needs “at least” 11 wins to get into the playoffs. It’s time to underline that “at least” part.

The haves and have nots are very pronounced in the NFL this season as nine teams have four or fewer wins and nine have at least 10. The Bears stood in the No. 2 seed at 10-4 on Monday after beating the Browns 31-3 the day before, but there’s still a somewhat realistic scenario in which they reached 11-6 and didn’t make it.

Nonetheless, they’re in a great spot and can boost their chances significantly with a win against the Packers on Saturday at Soldier Field. That would put them on the brink of clinching their first NFC North title since 2018, and along with it a top-four seed and a home game to open the playoffs.

The Bears finish with a home game against the Packers, a visit to the 49ers and a home game against the Lions. They’re battling all three of those teams, as well as others like the Seahawks, in a stacked NFC.

“I think very highly of our division, I always have, and this year is no different,” Johnson said Monday. “Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota — those are three really good football teams regardless of record. Philly won the Super Bowl a year ago... [and] they’re always a team that you bring to the forefront.

“[The 49ers] are doing a heck of a job themselves. Seems like that NFC West is a dogfight, and that’s going to come down to the end, much like the NFC North.”

The three main playoff simulators — ESPN, Next Gen Stats and The New York Times — give the Bears between a 74-85% probability to make the playoffs. The New York Times has that number jumping to 97% if they beat the Packers.

While there still are many possible outcomes at this stage, including the Cowboys (6-7-1) catching every possible break and getting in, toggling different outcomes over the final three weeks revealed three likelihoods about the Bears’ path:

- It probably will be tight to the end, and there are plausible sequences in which an 11-6 team is left out for the first time since the NFL went to a 14-team field. That’s still possible in the AFC as well.

- The Bears-Lions season finale has a high chance of being a scenario in which the winner makes it and the loser is out.

- If the Bears make it, their most common opponent in the first round is the Packers, whether at Soldier Field or Lambeau Field.

When it comes to seeding, the Bears’ biggest concern right now is the Packers, and the teams would flip from second and seventh if the Packers win Saturday. As far as merely making the playoffs, that fight primarily is with the Lions.

They’re 4-5 in their last nine games and hurt themselves Sunday by squandering a 10-point lead against the Rams. They finish against the Steelers (7-6 heading into their game late Monday), at the Vikings (6-8) and at the Bears.

The Lions throttled the Bears 52-21 at Ford Field in Week 2, and while Johnson said the Bears are “definitely a better football team than we were that first month of the season,” that won’t be easily forgotten leading up to the Week 18 rematch.

Even as the Lions stand on shaky ground, Johnson, who spent the last four seasons as a Lions assistant, knows they’re still very much a threat.

“Oh, yeah,” he said. “We’ve got to continue to win, we’ve got to earn that right to make it into the postseason.”

There still are too many variables for the Bears to scoreboard watch. The simplest route for them is simply, as Johnson has reiterated, to worry about themselves and win enough games that it doesn’t matter how everything else lands.