Why U.S. action in Venezuela may also topple Cuba's regime
U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term in office has borne witness to a dramatic and unprecedented escalation in tensions between the U.S. and President Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuela.
The White House has deployed a naval task force towards Venezuela and destroyed over 20 boats with the purported aim of preventing the flow of narcotics to American shores.
However, many view the buildup as a pretext for regime change; Trump has repeatedly suggested that Maduro’s days in power are numbered and has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations on Venezuelan soil.
But as the Trump administration piles pressure on Venezuela, some analysts speculate that the ultimate goal of Washington’s military buildup is regime change not just in Venezuela, but in Cuba too.
“I don’t think anyone can imagine (the United States) going for regime change in Venezuela and sitting back on Cuba,” said Helen Yaffe, co-host of the podcast Cuba Analysis and professor of Latin American political economy at the University of Glasgow.
Speaking to National Post, Yaffe emphasized the likelihood of a simultaneous campaign of regime change in both Latin American nations.
According to the professor, Venezuela and Cuba are grouped together in the eyes of Washington’s foreign policy. Not only have the two been close allies since the 1998 election victory of left-wing Venezuelan revolutionary Hugo Chávez, but they are also both seen as ideological foes of the United States.
The two countries, along with Nicaragua, constitute what former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton termed the “troika of tyranny,” a triumvirate of Latin American nations with left-wing authoritarian governments. Bolton, who served in the first Trump administration, and foreign policymakers in the current U.S. administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, view the three countries as their principal regional adversaries.
Yaffe thinks that targeting one element of the “troika” is likely to lead to a campaign against the other members.
Not only does the White House view Venezuela and Cuba as part of the same ideological threat, but they are also seen as key chess pieces in a broader geopolitical strategy of deterring Chinese influence in the region.
The Trump administration has explicitly expressed its desire to counter China’s growing influence in Latin America, where the Asian titan is increasingly involved in massive infrastructure and mining projects.
Paul Hare, a former British ambassador to Cuba (2001-2004) and former deputy head of mission to Venezuela who lectures in international relations at Boston University, emphasized the importance of China’s enduring support for Venezuela and Cuba.
China “has a big role to play in this too,” Hare told the National Post, pointing out that the Chinese “immediately came out saying Maduro won” after the 2024 Venezuelan elections, which were widely decried as fraudulent.
Hare also noted that “China would like to keep Cuba as a nuisance to the U.S.”
Indeed, there have been reports of increased Chinese-Cuban cooperation in the field of military intelligence and surveillance. Regime change in Cuba and Venezuela would undoubtedly curb Chinese influence in Latin America.
But Yaffe contends that accusations of Cuba becoming a “Chinese listening post” are being used to justify potential regime change in the Caribbean nation: “to turn any country into the bogeyman, you associate it with China.”
“The key issue… is oil,” argues Yaffe, who believes the White House’s end goal is for its corporations to control Venezuela’s oil supply.
The South American nation has the largest oil reserves in the world – some five times larger than those held by the United States. Maduro alleges that America’s claims of wanting to democratize Venezuela or prevent drug trafficking are a pretext to control his country’s petrol supplies.
Indeed, this week’s dramatic seizure of an oil tanker by U.S. forces off the Venezuelan coast shows that petroleum is undoubtedly a key piece of the equation.
But beyond the economic appeal for Washington to secure Venezuelan oil supplies, analysts say controlling petrol exports would also give the U.S. leverage over the Cuban regime.
Cuba has historically depended on Venezuelan oil, receiving up to 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) since 2000 to help stabilize its economy in times of crisis, although this number has dwindled in recent years.
While Havana has made an effort to diversify its trading partners to include Mexico and Russia, approximately 60 per cent of its total fuel and crude oil imports came from Venezuela in the first 10 months of 2025.
As a result, a successful regime change operation in Venezuela risks damaging the already fragile Cuban economy, as Cuba would likely be obliged to renegotiate an oil deal with Venezuela on less favourable terms. Venezuelan oil shipments to the island could also stop altogether because of American sanctions.
Notably, the oil tanker seized on Wednesday was bound for Cuba, with Politico reporting that the Cuban state firm Cubametales intended to sell the vessel carrying Venezuelan crude oil to Asian energy brokers.
Ex-ambassador Hare told National Post that a U.S. chokehold on Venezuelan oil could oblige Cuba to rely on “the Americans and to some extent the Europeans” for economic support.
He added that, in exchange for easing economic sanctions in a post-Maduro world, the U.S. would likely pressure the Cubans to enact significant reforms, such as the expansion of “elements of the private sector,” the ousting of current Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and a potential “new business deal” with the Trump administration.
As tensions mount between Trump and Maduro, Cuba has offered support to its longstanding ally, denouncing U.S. actions as “aggressive” and reportedly sending bodyguards to protect Venezuela’s president.
However, Hare said that Cuban assistance has limits and that they simply “don’t have the resources” for a “mass commitment” of troops to Venezuela.
Yaffe agreed, noting that although any armed confrontation “would bog the U.S. down in a (drawn-out) Vietnam-style” conflict, neither Cuba nor Venezuela could ultimately defeat the U.S. militarily.
Amid reports that the Cuban regime has tried to communicate with the United States about its future in the eventuality of Maduro’s removal, the Caribbean island appears to be preparing for the worst.
Latin America Reports
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