Everything the Trump administration is doing in Venezuela involves oil and regime change—even if the White House won’t admit it

The U.S. seizure of a massive oil tanker offshore of Venezuela this week represented a brazen escalation of the Trump administration’s repeated military incursions in the area. It’s also a broader sign of the increasing involvement of the U.S. in South America’s petroleum politics.

The U.S. paces the world in oil and gas production, but President Trump’s new national security strategy—the so-called “Trump corollary”—emphasizes greater U.S. control of the Western Hemisphere, including much more influence over South America, which increasingly leads the globe in new oil output growth. Almost everything the Trump administration is doing in South America—from pressuring Venezuela to a $20 billion Argentina bailout to defending Guyana’s territorial waters—is at least related to the black gold that is crude oil.

While the White House emphasizes national security concerns over drug trafficking and immigration as it bombs boats and kills more than 80 people thus far in repeated, legally questionable actions, Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Regime change and new laws opening Venezuelan oil to more U.S. and foreign investment could lead to much greater oil flows.

And, remember, Trump is a big fan of controlling oil volumes in order to lower prices at the pump—a major political bellwether for him—without having to lean on OPEC.

“In the next five years, we’re going to see a lot more oil coming from South America,” said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis for the Rystad Energy research firm. “I think there is going to be a growing U.S. influence in the region to attract foreign and American companies, sort of like what happened in the 1980s when there were a lot of U.S. players in South America. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a new wave of companies flying back there to unlock this massive oil potential.”

If Trump has his way and forces Maduro out, the U.S. also could see a lot more investment in Venezuelan oil, which is a heavier crude grade favored by American oil refineries even over U.S. crude, León told Fortune. That’s a big “if,” however. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will likely resist tooth and nail. He has already insisted his nation won’t become a U.S. “oil colony” and accused Trump of piracy.

Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said oil is a “piece of the puzzle” in all of Trump’s interventions in Venezuela and the broader continent, but not necessarily the key motivating factor.

“Trump does have the view that he can control the mineral reserves,” Monaldi said.

“It seems part of [Trump’s] notion for some sort of new Monroe Doctrine. Some call it the ‘Donroe’ Doctrine,” Monaldi said. “He basically wants the U.S to have a predominant role in the region in terms of raw materials and to limit the role of geopolitical rivals, like China, which is challenging.”

The domestic U.S. oil business is maturing and showing signs of plateauing, Monaldi said, and the U.S. wants more control of global petroleum outside of the Middle East and Russia. Companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron already are helping to grow South American production at a time when the continent’s politics are leaning more to the right—coincidentally or not.

“Bottom line, the region could become much more aligned with President Trump,” Monaldi said. “Not so long ago, the region was absolutely ruled by the left or the hard left, which was super anti-American.”

Intense Venezuela focus

Home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves but less than 1% of global oil production, Venezuela is arguably the planet’s biggest underachiever from a petroleum extraction perspective.

Once a major player churning out nearly 4 million barrels of oil daily, Venezuela’s volumes have plunged from 3.2 million barrels daily in 2000 down to about 960,000 barrels today under the authoritarian socialist regimes of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, from a combination of mismanagement, underinvestment, and escalating U.S. sanctions.

Outside of arguably Iran, no country gets under Trump’s skin more than Venezuela in either of Trump’s presidential terms thus far. Repeated sanctions and threats have failed to force Maduro out of office thus far.

And, while the Trump administration may truly be most focused on drugs and immigration, Monaldi said, Venezuela and its rich Orinoco Oil Belt represent a key geopolitical tool.

“Venezuela looks like a very important piece of the puzzle. It’s removed from the geopolitical areas that are problematic [in the Eastern Hemisphere],” Monaldi said. “The oil reserves are there, and the geological risks are pretty low. The problems in Venezuela are above ground.

“Venezuela could be producing four times or even five times as much oil—at least technically. This requires tens of billions of dollars in investments.”

Starting this fall, the U.S. has launched more than 20 known strikes against boats in the Venezuelan area, killing more than 80 people. The administration insists, without providing evidence, that the boats are trafficking drugs. Trump has built up a military force in the region, sending the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier to the Caribbean with a host of fighter jets and guided-missile destroyers.

On December 10, in another escalation, the U.S. seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper for allegedly making repeated, illegal shipments of Venezuelan and Iranian oil. The tanker was placed under U.S. sanctions under a different name in 2022 for its shipments of Iranian crude. The administration is threatening to seize more tankers going forward, potentially further crippling the Venezuelan economy.

In a new Politico interview, Trump said Maduro’s “days are numbered,” but he declined to comment on a potential land invasion of Venezuela.

When asked about the involvement of oil, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly would only say in a statement that Trump is focused on stopping the “narcoterrorists bringing deadly poison” to the U.S. “The President will continue to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country,” she added.

The corporate role

In July, Trump granted Chevron a new, restricted license to produce oil in Venezuela. As the only U.S. oil producer in the country—Chevron has worked in Venezuela for a century—Chevron produces about 25% of Venezuela’s crude with state oil company PDVSA. However, Venezuela ships about 80% of its oil to China under deep discounts because of U.S. sanctions.

In a Washington, D.C. conference in November, Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said the geopolitical circumstances are difficult, but Venezuela’s potential is worth the effort. “The kinds of swings that you see in places like Venezuela are challenging. But we play a long game. Venezuela is blessed with a lot of geologic resource and bounty. And we are committed to the people of the country and would like to be there as part of rebuilding Venezuela’s economy in time when circumstances change.”

In a statement, Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne added that its Venezuela “presence continues to be a stabilizing force for the local economy, the region, and U.S. energy security.”

Matt Reed, vice president of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, said much of the focus on Venezuelan oil involves hawkish Republican politicians and Maduro’s opponents in Venezuela arguing for even greater U.S. military intervention.

“They are trying to convince Trump to jump in with both feet and get rid of Maduro, making the argument there are also economic incentives with oil,” Reed said. “They’re the ones pushing the idea that American companies are going to profit in the long run if they can get access to Venezuelan oil resources.”

Trump certainly wants to get rid of Maduro and unlock Venezuela’s oil potential, Reed said, but—despite his oft-erratic whims—he prefers to do so without a repeat of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

“Getting involved in regime change in Venezuela would probably be the most ambitious military mission he would be involved in, which is why I don’t think he’s going to overcommit,” Reed said of Trump. “I think what he wants to do is tighten the noose and make Maduro untenable—make sure everyone understands that maybe the U.S. and Venezuela can turn the page once he’s out of the picture.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com