Is the Indiana Redistricting Debacle the Future of MAGA?
Is the Indiana Redistricting Debacle the Future of MAGA?
Fighting is good, but winning is better.
In our age of intense political polarization, there is one common belief that unites partisans of all stripes: Our side is led by a bunch of big wussies.
This manifests itself in a variety of different ways, of course. Progressives believe Mitch McConnell is a big meanie who routinely ate Chuck Schumer’s lunch when the Kentuckian was still his party’s leader in the Senate. Conservatives believe he is a RINO whose commitment to “muh principles” meant Republicans had to play by rules Democrats would violate with reckless abandon. (Filibuster? More like old and busted!)
President Donald Trump has solved this problem for some Republicans, but not all of them and maybe fewer of them the longer his second term grinds on. It remains to be seen which is more ephemeral, Trump’s current relative rough patch or the political movement he has spawned; it is unclear that other Republicans are ready or even willing to lead.
But Trump has shown Republicans that some things are possible when you are willing to exercise political power on behalf of your priorities—and also that bare-knuckled politics has its limits.
Which brings us to the collapse of the Republican redistricting bill in Indiana. The debacle features a little bit of everything ailing the GOP these days. Wishy-washy red-state Republicanism that frustrates conservatives nationally; pugilistic outside conservative agitators making hamfisted threats that always seemed likely to backfire; an approach to the upcoming midterm elections that amounts to rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
Republicans should of course do whatever they can to counteract Democratic redistricting efforts (and preexisting blue-state gerrymandering) in places like California, which are in turn in response to Republican-drawn congressional maps in states like Texas.
But ultimately altering the political conditions that might bring about a Democratic wave election is the only real solution. Redistricting might expand the number of seats available to Republicans, but even if not canceled out by the Democrats or overturned by the courts, it will also produce some seats that only went for Trump by margins that won’t make them safe in a wave election.
One of the many reasons the slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk is so missed is that he possessed a rare combination of skills inside the MAGA movement. He was a natural leader, but also a team player. He was not divisive by temperament, at least not within his own political coalition. Since his assassination in September, it has become readily apparent, if it wasn’t already, that not everyone who has been successful in his space can say the same.
MAGA surely has its leaders and its team players. But as a political movement, it is not exactly teeming with people who are both. And as the race to succeed Trump heats up, many people are competing and jockeying for position. The process won’t always be pretty, and it may not yield a positive electoral outcome.
When a sports team doesn’t need to do anything but win to secure a playoff berth, it is said to control its own destiny. World events make it impossible to totally control your own destiny in politics. But even with the dismal recent election results, Trump’s party still gets to govern in the coming months. It can influence, if not quite control, outcomes that are more consequential to the country. For now, the Trumpian form of the GOP and the party more broadly come as close to controlling their own destiny as possible in these uncertain times.
Perhaps MAGA will squander those opportunities, or yet capitalize on them. It is good to have fighters. But to paraphrase an old John Wayne film title, there is no substitute for winners.
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