Detroit Lions at Rams: Who has the edge?
DETROIT LIONS (8-5) at RAMS (10-3)
When: 1:25 p.m. Sunday
Where: SoFi Stadium
TV/Radio: FOX (Ch. 11)/710 AM; 93.1 FM; 1330 AM (Spanish); Sirius 381, 226
Line: Rams by 5.5
Notable injury designations
Lions: OUT: DB Brian Branch (Achilles), S Kerby Joseph (knee); QUESTIONABLE: OT Taylor Decker (shoulder/rest), WR Kalif Raymond (ankle), S Thomas Harper (concussion), OG Kayode Awosika (foot), OG Christian Mahogany (fibula), RB Sione Vaki (thumb), TE Shane Zylstra (knee).
Rams: QUESTIONABLE: WR Davante Adams (hamstring), S Jaylen McCollough (illness).
What’s at stake? If the Rams win, they will clinch their third consecutive playoff appearance. If the Lions win, they have the chance to gain ground in NFC wild-card race as they sit one game behind the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears for the last two NFC playoff spots.
Who’s better? The Rams rank better in most metrics than the Lions, and are the healthier side as Detroit is down men across both sides of the ball. Both teams come into the game playing their best football of the year, and the Lions have won the last two meetings of the season.
Matchup to watch: Lions run blocking vs. Rams defensive front. Since head coach Dan Campbell has taken over as the Lions’ offensive play-caller, Detroit’s success rate on run plays has jumped from 39.2% in the first eight games of the season to 45.6% in the last five. This, despite an offensive line with four members on injured reserve and another in Decker dealing with a shoulder issue. It will be imperative for the Rams front to absorb run blocks at the first level and allow space for linebackers and safeties to fill gaps. Poona Ford and Kobie Turner have to force double teams to stick rather than allowing one lineman to get up to the next level.
Rams win if: They are perfect at converting in the red zone against an aggressive Detroit coaching staff. … They commit no turnovers. … The defense does not allow any touchdowns from longer than 30 yards and gives itself a chance to get a red-zone stop.
Fantasy sleeper: TE Terrance Ferguson. The Rams moved the ball easily through the air the last time these teams met, and the Lions’ secondary was in much better health at that time. It feels like Ferguson is right on the precipice of a breakout game; there have been plays throughout the past several weeks where he has found an opening in a zone but he and QB Matthew Stafford haven’t quite been able to complete the pass for a variety of reasons. If the two click into rhythm in this game, Ferguson could play a big role.
Prediction: Rams 35, Lions 31. Beat reporter’s record: 11-2 overall; 8-5 against the spread.