NFL picks: 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is working his magic

LAS VEGAS — If not for Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, perhaps even Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey’s trophy case would, by now, glimmer like a disco ball.

At Alabama, with 2,219 rushing yards in 2015, Henry won the Heisman Trophy. McCaffrey, a sophomore at Stanford, dashed for 2,019 yards and finished second to Henry in voting.

In 2019, McCaffrey blossomed, becoming the third NFL player to register at least 1,000 yards running and receiving, with 1,387 by land and 1,005 by air. Jackson, the Ravens quarterback, was voted MVP.

Roger Craig (1,050 and 1,016, respectively, for the 49ers in 1985) and Marshall Faulk (1,381 and 1,048 for the Rams in ’99) were the first two members of the four-figure-double fraternity.

In ’85, Marcus Allen beat Walter Payton for NFL MVP. In ’99, Rams quarterback Kurt Warner won that hardware, which mostly has been bestowed upon hurlers.

Panthers teammate and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, mic’d up for a November 2019 game against the Saints, did dispense indelible McCaffrey praise to a sideline camera.

“That’s a bad white boy,” McCoy said. “Most skilled white dude in NFL history. Yeah, I said it. Hands down, I said it. That’s a bad white boy, right here.

“All love for Christian McCaffrey.”

A month into the 2022 season, the 49ers traded for McCaffrey. In the bushel of draft picks they received, the Panthers nabbed their current quarterback, Bryce Young of Alabama.

A year later, McCaffrey led the league in rushing with 1,459 yards and won the AP Offensive Player of the Year award. In MVP voting, he finished a distant third behind Jackson and Cowboys quarterback Prescott.

The 49ers capped that campaign in Super Bowl LVIII, a 25-22 loss to the Chiefs.

This season, McCaffrey is on the verge of becoming the only player in NFL history having accumulated a grand in rushing and receiving yardage in two seasons.

Through 13 games, he has gained 849 yards by land, 806 by air. Those respective averages, of 65 and 62, have him nearly repeating the feat through 16 games.

Of course, there have been 17 regular-season NFL games since 2021, so it seems academic that McCaffrey will become the lone two-time twin-thousand-yard machine.

His timing is impeccable, since the 49ers have sustained many injuries. Last season, various leg ailments limited McCaffrey to only four games. Just when the 49ers needed the 29-year-old to be a one-man gang, he has delivered in MVP fashion.

Moreover, the god-fearing humble warrior always directs the spotlight to coaches and teammates, his priorities having zilch to do with trophies.

Our metrics show this will be the week’s biggest blowout, and the no-doubt catalyst will be McCaffrey.

As usual.

Best bet

TITANS at 49ERS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.

Line: 49ers by 12½. Total: 44½.

Records (overall/ATS): Titans 2-11/6-7; 49ers 9-4/8-5.

Pick: 49ers 28, Titans 3.

Play: 49ers -12½.

How Miech’s plays fared

Last week Overall

Best bet 0-1 5-9

Top plays 2-1 21-21

All plays 10-4 88-114-4

7-point tease 12-2 146-58-2

Top plays

RAIDERS at EAGLES

Time: Noon Sunday.

Line: Eagles by 11½. Total: 38½.

Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-11/4-8-1; Eagles 8-5/7-6.

Outlook: With a head coach like the Raiders’ Pete Carroll looking out for your ATS interests (review Sunday’s final seconds against the Broncos), it might be a knee-jerk play to take Vegas. But those tricks might only work at home.

Pick: Eagles 23, Raiders 6.

Play: Eagles -11½.

JETS at JAGUARS

Time: Noon Sunday.

Line: Jaguars by 12½. Total: 41½.

Records (overall/ATS): Jets 3-10/8-5; Jaguars 9-4/8-4-1.

Outlook: The Jaguars have won four in a row and five of their last six. RB Travis Etienne has scored twice in each of his last two home games, and the Jets own one of the bottom-three rushing defenses in the league.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Jets 14.

Play: Jaguars -12½.

CARDINALS at TEXANS

Time: Noon Sunday.

Line: Texans by 9½. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Cards 3-10/6-7; Texans 8-5/7-6.

Outlook: Houston has won eight of its last 10 games. The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 11, yielding 530 total yards Sunday to the Rams. Only the Buccaneers (25) in Week 2 have collected 20 first downs against the Texans, easily the NFL low.

Pick: Texans 26, Cardinals 9.

Play: Texans -9½.

Other plays

BROWNS at BEARS

Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.

Line: Bears by 7½. Total: 39½.

Records (overall/ATS): Browns 3-10/6-7; Bears 9-4/8-5.

Outlook: The Bears, not the Browns, remain one of nine triple-negative squads, underwater in points-per-play margins for the season, the last three games and the previous game. In four of their last five, the Browns had a 306-245 average-yardage edge.

Pick: Browns 24, Bears 20.

Play: Browns +7½.

RAVENS at BENGALS

Time: Noon Sunday.

Line: Ravens by 2½. Total: 52½.

Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 6-7/4-9; Bengals 4-9/6-7.

Outlook: The last five between these two have averaged 60 points. The Bengals allow an NFL-high average of 439 total yards and 35 points in their own barn. The Ravens are circling the drain.

Pick: Bengals 35, Ravens 27.

Play: Over 52½.

CHARGERS at CHIEFS

Time: Noon Sunday.

Line: Chiefs by 4½. Total: 41½.

Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 9-4/6-6-1; Chiefs 6-7/5-8.

Outlook: Over their last five games (four defeats), the Chiefs have given up an average of 38 points. K.C. QB Patrick Mahomes had no TD passes and three picks Sunday against the Texans. When he leads the Chiefs in rushing, they’re 0-4.

Pick: Chargers 20, Chiefs 13.

Play: Chargers +4½.

BILLS at PATRIOTS

Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.

Line: Patriots by 1½. Total: 50½.

Records (overall/ATS): Bills 9-4/6-7; Patriots 11-2/8-5.

Outlook: This has moved from the Westgate SuperBook’s summertime projected line of Bills by 4½ to Patriots by 2. Our numbers show otherwise, making it a wrong-team-favored deal. In his last seven games, Bills QB Josh Allen has 20 TDs.

Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 23.

Play: Bills +1½.

COMMANDERS at GIANTS

Time: Noon Sunday.

Line: Giants by 2½. Total: 47½.

Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 3-10/4-9; Giants 2-11/7-6.

Outlook: Allowing an NFL-high 8.1 yards per throw has kept the Commanders’ secondary too busy. That’s the rate they’ve allowed on the road, too. Giants QB Jaxson Dart throws for 300 yards, and Wan’Dale Robinson gets 100-plus receiving.

Pick: Giants 27, Commanders 6.

Play: Giants -2½.

PACKERS at BRONCOS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.

Line: Packers by 2½. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Packers 9-3-1/6-7; Broncos 11-2/5-7-1.

Outlook: Green Bay is the only team with a third-down conversion rate above 50%, at 50.6%. It’s also the only squad with a rate that high on the road, at 53.3%. Denver has two wins against winning teams.

Pick: Packers 31, Broncos 20.

Play: Packers -2½.

LIONS at RAMS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.

Line: Rams by 5½. Total: 55½.

Records (overall/ATS): Lions 8-5/7-6; Rams 10-3/9-4.

Outlook: The Lions’ defense has allowed its last three opponents to gain nearly 1,300 total yards. Rams QB Matthew Stafford, with an NFL-best 35 passing TDs and league-leading passer rating of 113.1, will riddle that Swiss-cheese secondary.

Pick: Rams 33, Lions 23.

Play: Rams -5½.

PANTHERS at SAINTS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.

Line: Panthers by 2½. Total: 40½.

Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 7-6/8-5; Saints 3-10/5-8.

Outlook: Carolina has dropped eight of its last 10 in the Big Easy. In his fifth career start, Saints rookie QB Tyler Shough (pronounced SHUCK) turned two of his seven runs into TDs in that unlikely triumph at Tampa Bay.

Pick: Saints 17, Panthers 16.

Play: Saints +2½.

COLTS at SEAHAWKS

Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.

Line: Seahawks by 14. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Colts 8-5/7-5-1; Seahawks 10-3/10-3.

Outlook: Either Riley Leonard or Philip Rivers (20-1 comeback-player odds at BetRivers) will hand the ball to Colts league-leading runner Jonathan Taylor. His career high in carries is 34, and we wager he’ll eclipse that.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Colts 6.

Play: Seahawks -14.

VIKINGS at COWBOYS

Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.

Line: Cowboys by 5½. Total: 47½.

Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 5-8/5-8; Cowboys 6-6-1/7-6.

Outlook: Our metrics show that this line is inflated, likely double what it should be. The Boys get into trouble when opposing runners ring up triple-digit yardage, and we see Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason gathering that for the Vikes.

Pick: Vikings 26, Cowboys 24.

Play: Vikings +5½.

DOLPHINS at STEELERS

Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.

Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 6-7/7-6; Steelers 7-6/6-7.

Outlook: The bad news for Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers is that the Dolphins’ secondary is menacing, with six picks in the last four games, and improving every game. Only two of Miami’s last dozen foes have thrown for 214 yards.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Steelers 16.

Play: Dolphins +3.