Picks for the CFP and early bowl games: Oregon rolls, trouble for Washington schools as playoff expansion momentum builds
Welcome to the first installment of the Hotline’s postseason picks against the point spread, which covers the opening round of the College Football Playoff and notable the pre-Christmas bowl games. We were 4-2 last week on conference championship weekend. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
LAS VEGAS — Notre Dame’s exclusion from the College Football Playoff and childish reaction to the snub just might have been the spark needed to turn the 12-team event’s long-discussed expansion into a reality.
“If it was 16, we wouldn’t be having these conversations,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said Wednesday during the Sports Business Journal’s forum on college sports at the Aria Resort and Casino.
“My barometer about what’s enough and what’s not enough is if you are leaving teams out of the playoff that could win a national championship, then you don’t have the right number.”
Whether or not you agree with the selection committee’s decision to flip Notre Dame and Miami in the final rankings (even though both teams were idle), there’s no doubt the Irish (10-2) possess the DNA of a title contender and would have been a betting favorite for the championship.
Had the CFP featured 16 participants, Texas, Vanderbilt and BYU would have joined Notre Dame as the last teams in the field. All four had a case for inclusion.
The playoff management committee, consisting of the 10 FBS conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director, spent most of the past year discussing expansion models that could be implemented in time for the 2026 season. They were unable to reach a consensus before the Dec. 1 deadline but agreed with ESPN to extend the negotiating window until Jan. 23.
The desire to expand has gained steam in the aftermath of the Notre Dame controversy, which enraged the Irish to the point that athletic director Pete Bevacqua called the weekly rankings release a “farce” and criticized the ACC for a social media campaign that promoted Miami’s case for inclusion over Notre Dame. (The Irish are a member of the ACC in all sports except football.)
Phillips emerged from the dispute Tuesday and met with Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey in Las Vegas. (The Big Ten’s Tony Petitti joined remotely.)
Phillips described the meeting as “a great session as we are evaluating some of those options.”
Even with added motivation and eight additional weeks to negotiate, the commissioners might struggle to resolve differences that have existed for months. Petitti has pushed for an expansion model based on automatic qualifiers (AQs), while the SEC, ACC and Big 12 favor a limited number of AQs and a heavy dose of at-large bids.
Timing is an issue, as well. The CFP could expand to 16 teams in time for the 2026 season by simply adding four games to the opening round and keeping the existing calendar.
But a 24-team field, which was proposed by the Big Ten but has limited support, would require an additional round of play and, therefore, an overhaul of the calendar.
It would also result in the death of conference championship games, intense negotiations with ESPN and a mindset change across the sport.
As a result, don’t be surprised if the commissioners decide to expand to 16 teams in time for next season while making plans for a 24-team event in 2027.
Because college football.
To the picks …
Season: 78-79-1 (49.7%)
Five-star special: 8-7
Boise State (+9.5) vs. Washington (LA Bowl)
Kickoff: Dec. 13 at 5 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The Huskies have been inconsistent on offense this season and played poorly away from home over the past two years. If their road persona shows up and the offense struggles, they will leave L.A. with loss No. 5. Boise State is fresh off winning the Mountain West championship behind quarterback Maddux Madsen, who’s finally healthy after a midseason injury. One team will be vastly more motivated, and it’s the underdog. Pick: Boise State.
No. 9 Alabama (+1.5) at No. 8 Oklahoma (CFP)
Kickoff: Dec. 19 at 5 p.m. on ABC
Comment: A rematch of OU’s narrow victory in Tuscaloosa last month will determine which team advances to face Indiana in the quarterfinals. Neither offense has been impressive of late, although the Crimson Tide expects tailback Jam Miller to return, potentially boosting the running game. The Sooners have one of the top defenses in the country, which explains a point total (40.5) that seems like something out of a bygone era. Pick: Alabama
No. 10 Miami (+3.5) at No. 7 Texas A&M (CFP)
Kickoff: Dec. 20 at 9 a.m. on ABC
Comment: The only teams to beat Notre Dame this season collide in what could be the most entertaining game of the opening round. Don’t be fooled by Miami’s controversial inclusion: The Hurricanes are loaded on the lines of scrimmage, possess a bevy of playmakers and have a gifted quarterback (Carson Beck) with big-game experience. That said, the home field is worth more than 3.5 points for the Aggies. Pick: Texas A&M
No. 11 Tulane (+17.5) at No. 6 Mississippi (CFP)
Kickoff: Dec. 20 at 12:30 p.m. on TNT
Comment: Another rematch from the regular season, albeit with one major difference: The Rebels will be without coach Lane Kiffin, who left for LSU but has allowed several of his assistants to return to Oxford to coach Mississippi in the playoff. The late-September duel was lopsided, with Mississippi winning by 35. This should be significantly closer, but it’s difficult to envision the Green Wave in position for victory in the final minutes. Pick: Tulane
No. 12 James Madison (+21.5) at No. 5 Oregon (CFP)
Kickoff: Dec. 20 at 4:30 p.m. on TNT
Comment: The Ducks finally have their CFP home game, and it should follow the same plot as many of their non-playoff home games: a blowout. The Dukes deserved the bid based on the selection process, but they are not in Oregon’s class. Look for Ducks coach Dan Lanning to pull his starters in the third quarter. Pick: Oregon
Washington State (+3.5) vs. Utah State (Potato Bowl)
Kickoff: Dec. 22 at 11 a.m. on ESPN
Comment: WSU took a gut punch with the departure of coach Jimmy Rogers (to Iowa State) but retained some level of continuity by promoting defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit to interim coach. Meanwhile, Utah State is rolling into the postseason after playing well down the stretch under first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall. We like the Pac-12 newcomers to topple the Pac-12 mainstays. Pick: Utah State
Cal (-2.5) at Hawaii (Hawaii Bowl)
Kickoff: Dec. 24 at 5 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Homecoming for Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who grew up in Ewa Beach, and interim coach Nick Rolovich, who coached Hawaii, should be an entertaining affair. The Rainbow Warriors (8-4) should be fully revved but possess a wobbly pass defense the Bears can exploit with Sagapolutele and Jacob De Jesus. Rolovich is 1-0 since taking over for Justin Wilcox. We see 2-0 in his future. Pick: Cal
Straight-up winners: Boise State, Alabama, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Oregon, Utah State and Cal
Five-star special: Oregon. The CFP matchup with James Madison reminds us of the Fiesta Bowl affair with Liberty two years ago in which the Ducks led 31-6 at halftime.
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