Why the fate of HBO depends on how little CNN is worth

• Paramount's David Ellison wants to buy all of Warner Bros., including its cable networks.
• Ellison also says those cable networks — including CNN — aren't very valuable.
• It's confusing! But it's also a key part of the Paramount vs. Netflix fight over the future of WBD.

The fight between Paramount and Netflix over Warner Bros. Discovery is ultimately about who gets to control HBO and the Warner movie studio.

But the way that fight gets settled is going to involve an unusual side quest: CNN, TNT, the Food Network, and a bunch of other cable networks WBD wants to get rid of. Specifically: What are all of those shrinking cable networks worth?

Which leads us to a pretty weird place: Paramount CEO David Ellison, who wants to buy all of WBD — including its cable networks — is arguing that those cable networks aren't worth very much at all. And Netflix, which doesn't want to buy those cable networks, is implicitly arguing that they're worth much more.

That's because in the Netflix scenario, current WBD shareholders would go through two transactions: First, WBD would spin out its cable networks into a new company, and WBD investors would be given shares in that new company. Then Netflix would buy the remainder of WBD — HBO and the studio — for cash and stock.

Which means Netflix, and WBD executives who have blessed the Netflix offer, will want investors to think the cable networks are valuable. Ellison wants them to think the opposite.

Bloomberg puts it well:

"The lower you value the cable assets, the greater advantage Paramount's bid has. If shareholders believe the cable operations are more highly valued, then Netflix's bid, which assumes they will be spun off, means investors get an overall bigger sum of money."

And here's the actual gap: Ellison says the spin-off is worth about $1 per WBD share — or roughly $2.5 billion, based on WBD's current valuation. Independent analysts think it might be closer to $4 per share — or roughly $10 billion. Paramount and Netflix reps declined to comment; WBD hasn't responded to my request.

What are WBD's cable networks actually worth?

So one side is describing a rounding error, especially when it's part of a deal that could be worth $108 billion. The other is describing, more or less, a midsize media company.

And yes, this is equity value, not enterprise value — this already assumes the spin-off gets saddled with billions of WBD's debt under the Netflix plan. But we're going to focus this conversation on the shares that ultimately end up in a WBD investor's brokerage account.

And if you believe David Ellison and Co., those investors aren't getting much. Because CNN, Turner, and all of the networks formerly owned by Discovery aren't worth much at all.

By way of comparison: In 2023, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated CNN alone was worth $5 billion. And earlier this year, a forensic accountant in a defamation trial said CNN was worth even less in 2023 — a mere $2.3 billion. Now Ellison is saying CNN, plus "premier entertainment, sports and news television brands around the world," as WBD describes the portfolio, is worth $2.5 billion, all-in.

And yes, the cable network industry is a falling knife, which is why many big media companies that own cable networks are trying to ditch them. But are things really that bad?

Maybe. Maybe, using Ellison's math, all of CNN plus a pile of other cable networks — which still generate cash, mind you — are worth about 16 Bari Weisses, based on the reported $150 million he paid for her Free Press site.

Or maybe all of that is worth $10 billion — which means it's still less than 1% of Google. Which feels like a metaphor for the entire media industry in 2025: Even a roomful of famous brands barely registers in a world run by giant software companies.

Somewhere in that $2.5 billion to $10 billion range is the real answer. But the headline is clear: The networks that once held the entire cable bundle together are now garage sale leftovers. Worth something to someone — but a whole lot less than they used to be.