Fantasy Focus: Kaiden Guhle

When it comes to Montreal’s top relevant blueliners in fantasy hockey, the top two of Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson are obvious.  But Kaiden Guhle might find himself third on the list heading into the upcoming season.

2024-25

Guhle got off to a nice start to his season, playing big minutes in Montreal’s first five games before an all-too-familiar refrain came up; he was injured and missed two weeks with an upper-body injury.  When he returned, the decent offensive production he had early all but dried up but he was still playing a ton, averaging nearly 23 minutes a night over the first two months.

Unfortunately for him and the Habs, his worst drought of the season started at the end of that stretch and carried over well into December.  He ultimately went 14 points and more than a month between points.  Yes, Guhle’s not necessarily known for his production but this is a fantasy hockey column and stretches like that tend to be relevant.

Fortunately, he rebounded with arguably his best stretch of the season.  After the holiday break, he potted eight points in 16 games while seeing upticks in his shots, blocks, and hits, not to mention his playing time which once again crept close to 23 minutes, well above his career average.  Things were looking up.  And then this happened:

Another significant injury, one that cost him two months.  He was originally deemed likely to miss the rest of the season but with the Habs in the playoff hunt, he returned albeit with his playing time being managed a little more carefully.  He was able to get through the rest of the year although clearly not at 100% which also came into play in the postseason.  But still, getting back and being able to contribute at a reasonable level was a decent way to wrap up his campaign.

Regular Season Stats: 5 GP, 6-12-18, +6, 47 PIMS, 0 PPG, 1 GWG, 71 shots, 21:11 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 5 GP, 0-0-0, -3, 4 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 6 shots, 21:48 ATOI

3-Year Averages

GP: 56
Goals: 5
Assists: 14
Points: 19
+/-: -7
PIMS: 43
PPG: 0
GWG: 1
Shots: 71

2025-26 Role

We know this much about Guhle heading into the season – he’ll be a top-four defender.  Just who he plays with and on what side of the ice he’ll cover is in question.  Stylistically, he’s a strong complementary fit with Dobson and it wouldn’t be shocking to see that duo tried at some point.  On the other hand, he worked well with Hutson last season with Hutson on his off-side.  Or, if Montreal wants to put their top two offensive blueliners together, then reviving the Guhle pairing with Mike Matheson could happen with Guhle shifting to his off-side.  He’s going to be a key piece no matter what but who he plays with is really anyone’s guess.

In terms of special teams, it’s safe to say the power play isn’t happening beyond getting the final ten seconds or so in preparation for the five-on-five shift coming after the penalty ends.  As for the penalty kill, he was the third-most-used defender last season behind Matheson and David Savard.  Savard is obviously gone and Dobson typically doesn’t kill penalties.  That means Guhle could be moved up to the top unit which would likely up his playing time by another minute per game or so and a corresponding jump in blocked shots.

Projected Stats

If you extrapolate Guhle’s career numbers on a per-82-game basis, you get the makings of a decent secondary producer, eight goals and 20 assists.  In leagues based solely on goals and assists, he might be a capable sixth or seventh option in deeper pools.  If that’s the type of league you’re in, the rest of this section won’t apply to you.

For leagues with several other stat categories – particularly shots, hits, and blocks – the rest of that extrapolated stat line is worth eyeing.  104 shots, 184 blocks, and 148 hits per 82 games.  If he stayed healthy for a full season (and granted, that’s a big if), that would make him a triple-triple player.  There were only 11 of these in the entire NHL last season and a couple of them just barely got there.  If he’s in that range, he’s more of a third or fourth option in those types of pools.  In shallower head-to-head ones, he’s a late-week pickup if you need a boost in one of those categories, particularly blocks.  There is a wide range of valuation outcomes but in most pools, he’s going to be someone worth having on your draft board.

Even if he doesn’t play a full season (and let’s face it, that’s the likeliest outcome here), he can be a very effective fantasy player.  A jump in blocks seems likely with the probable higher role on the penalty kill and if he’s with Hutson, a small uptick in shots wouldn’t shock me.  To be on the safe side, you probably want to factor in at least a multi-week injury somewhere into your draft rankings.  Guhle is an intriguing sleeper pick, even with two higher-end offensive blueliners ahead of him in the pecking order.

GP: 64
Goals: 7
Assists: 18
Points: 25
+/-: +5
PIMS: 63
PPG: 0
GWG: 1
Shots: 87