Rinse and repeat
MUCH is happening in parts of KP, especially the recently merged districts that were formerly federally administered. In the past week or so, a three-day operation was announced in Bajaur but it came to an abrupt halt because of pressure from the people. Taking to the streets in large numbers, they sent a powerful message. Such was the pushback that the operation was halted. Following this, negotiations were carried out by the community notables with the TTP.
Among other things, the objective was to convince the TTP to retreat from the area, so there would be no need for the operation. The negotiations carried on, even though most experts were not too hopeful. The negotiations failed, and another operation became imminent. As this piece was being written, a three-day curfew was announced for parts of the district. Social media is filled with heartbreaking images of belongings piled onto various vehicles that are packed with people: young men holding on to the sides of a luggage-carrying van or an old woman sitting in the boot of a car. There are children too. These are images that will probably not make it to mainstream media because there is an unspoken consensus about ignoring the human costs of such decisions.
Indeed, this story of displacement is hard for mainstream Pakistan to understand, especially for the privileged.
Threatened by the spectre of terrorism reaching their streets in Islamabad and Lahore, those residing in these big cities, with regular jobs or businesses and comfortable savings, cannot understand what these displacements mean for those living in the former Fata agencies, who have already suffered this cycle. To see a safe and home-like environment become alien and hostile, and then being displaced and having to leave homes and livelihoods behind to live in camps, and finally to return to an area where houses and markets have been damaged extensively is an experience the rest of us cannot even begin to comprehend.
The story of displacement is hard for mainstream Pakistan to understand.
The residents of many parts of KP have lived through this and now they are expected to go through it again. No wonder they are now equally wary of both sides of this conflict. This is why in the past couple of years, most political parties, including the ones that supported the post-2008 operations, have also spoken against operations — they have recognised the mood on the ground. The chief minister of KP is no different; one day he rails against the imposition of curfews and the next he explains the importance of rooting out terrorism. The Jekyll and Hyde performance is to appease both the people and the powerful who ensure his job and government.
But with this public mood, most energies are focused on keeping the news of the sentiment from reaching the rest of the country. And there is little to no debate on the alienation of the people and whether or not there are ways of tackling terrorism without losing public support. Instead, we block the news, the government says there is no operation other than intelligence-based operations, while curfews are imposed and people pack their belongings — delulu is the solulu.
Indeed, since the issue first reared its head in the mid-oughties, from ‘elimination’ to now re-emergence, the only surface-level consensus allowed to be debated is that Pakistan can’t afford to not eradicate terrorism. No one is willing to look deeply into the issue. How successful was the first effort? Very! Was there any room for improvement or change? Of course not, because who tinkers with what was very successful in the first place?
There are few questions or answers about how the TTP managed to escape to Afghanistan, only to return once the government in Kabul changed. Or how we will avoid a similar journey this time around. Neither do we discuss how many times we will repeat this cycle of displacement.
It appears that in parts of KP, we are back at the ‘clear’ stage of the ‘clear, hold and build strategy’ of COIN; a strategy that fell apart in the country next door. But how will the ‘hold and build’ stages work this time around? No one knows. And how will ‘clear’ ensure that the TTP doesn’t just escape across the border again?
This should be of great importance. Especially because, in the aftermath of the previous phases of displacement, the anger of the local populace increased after they returned. The check posts, the questioning, the complaints about compensation, the missing people — all of these issues and more continued to haunt the people on their return. And it is worth remembering that these issues, in the aftermath of the post-2008 operations led to the emergence of the PTM around 2018.
It was a movement that made those in power so uncomfortable (then and now) that its coverage was simply not allowed. And while the movement seems to have fizzled out since, the alienation of the people is more than evident. The public gatherings in Bajaur recently, or Tirah valley or even Bannu last year all point to the anger of the people — in Tirah and Bannu, as in Bajaur, crowds gathered spontaneously to push for peace and against conflict. But in all these cases, the crowds seemed to be as wary of the state as they were of the militants. And this is a cause for concern.
That is not all. From the street power of the PTM to these public gatherings in recent times, the worrying trend is of people opting for street protests or direct negotiations over electoral and parliamentary politics. The PTM expressed a lack of faith in parliament publicly, but recent protests have also indicated this, even if it is not being expressed as such.
Instead of acknowledging this and trying to find solutions, we are back to repeating history, with no clarity on how and why it will end differently this time around. Because accepting mistakes and learning from them is just too difficult.
The writer is a journalist.
Published in Dawn, August 12th, 2025