Democrats must treat Texas as a Senate pickup opportunity in 2026

Nearly six months into President Trump’s second term, he has sown even more chaos and instability than in his first term, and public opinion of him has shifted negative. 

Major polls show Trump’s approval rating in the mid 40s, with over 50 percent disapproving — worse than most recent presidents at this stage. Americans give him even lower marks on the economic issues that defined the 2024 election.

Midterm elections are rarely electorally successful for the party that controls the White House. Given that Republicans also hold both the House and the Senate, there’s little reason to believe 2026 will buck the trend. 

The key question is just how strong the traditional voter rebuke of the party in power will be, and whether Democrats can execute a strategy to fully capitalize on it.

Many forecasters are already anticipating a backlash on par with the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained a net of 40 seats in Congress in an election where Democrats won the national congressional vote by 8.6 points — all after losing the 2016 election. 

While it’s impossible to know exactly how things will look in 15 months, Democrats should be treating 2026 as an opportunity comparable to 2018. 

To seize that opportunity, Democrats need to start preparing now. And that includes crafting a serious approach to winning a Senate majority, which would give Democrats the full congressional power required to thwart Trump’s agenda and stem the Republican onslaught.

Yes, the Democrats’ path to taking back the Senate in 2026 is tough. But it’s not impossible. 

Let’s break down the math: Democrats currently hold 47 Senate seats. To retake the Senate, the party needs to successfully defend seats in Georgia and Michigan and gain four additional seats. Right now, the strongest pickup opportunities are Maine and North Carolina. Victory in those two states would get Democrats to 49 seats. 

To reach 51, Democrats need two more seats from what we can call an “expansion” list — states that may have seemed out-of-reach a few months ago but, thanks to Republicans self-sabotage and political malpractice, have the potential to be competitive.

To be clear: I’m not talking about doomed, emotionally driven efforts to unseat high-profile Republicans in their safest seats (the 2020 Kentucky Senate race, which Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) won by 20 points despite $90 million being poured into his opponent, comes to mind). 

I’m talking about strategic, thoughtful investments in races that are hard but winnable in this environment. Potential pick-up opportunities include Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas.

A year and a half is a long time, especially in an unpredictable climate like this one, and some states might fall off or be added to that list. 

Wins in two of the “expansion” states would put Democrats over the top. But to have a real shot at success in this expanded landscape, where all the battles will be uphill, Democrats will need to choose two states on which to focus our attention and resources.

Among those four likely expansion states, Texas is Democrats’ best bet.

Here’s why: With polls showing Texas’ scandal-scarred, far-right attorney general, Ken Paxton, leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the Republican primary, the GOP will likely have a candidate who is strong with the base but relatively weak among the general electorate. 

In 2024, Rep. Collin Allred (D-Texas) overperformed Kamala Harris by 5.3 percentage points in his Senate race against Ted Cruz. This month, Allred announced that he is taking another shot at the Senate in 2026, and a recent poll shows him trailing Paxton by only 2 points. He enters the race with high name recognition, serious fundraising capacity and a unified party behind him. 

There are other talented, compelling Democratic elected officials who may jump in the race, including Congressman Joaquin Castro and State Representative James Talarico. 

Texas is the only expansion state trending in the right direction. My calculations, based on public voter data, reveal that the Democratic vote share has shown a consistent upward trajectory over the last 12 years of Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races. And, astonishingly, Allred was able to narrow M.J. Hegar’s 2020 Senate margin against Sen. John Cornyn (D-Texas), despite a massive seven-point rightward shift nationally.

Ohio, Iowa and Alaska have been moving in the other direction, toward Republicans. So Texas should be a key priority for Democratic donors, national groups, operatives and anyone else with a role to play in helping the party realize the potential of this moment.

I have written previously about the urgent need for consistent, multi-cycle investment in Texas to turn it into a true statewide battleground and key component of the Democratic path to the White House after 2030. The importance of enacting that strategy hasn’t changed. 

But the window for Texas to directly strengthen Democrats’ national position might be opening sooner than expected. Republican missteps have accelerated the timeline.

History shows that these kinds of races in Texas, or anywhere, cannot be won if national Democrats wait until the September before the election to throw a Hail Mary. 

Now is the time to invest in recruiting strong down-ballot candidates — a key but underdiscussed contributor to Beto O’Rourke’s strong 2018 performance — and building the right ecosystem to set Democrats up to compete.

Such strategic investment will both maximize the possibility of taking the Senate seat and build and strengthen the foundation to compete in Texas over the long haul.

Even if we come up short in the Senate race, we will still help continue Democrats’ growth trajectory in Texas. But if we don’t act now, we risk watching Texas go the way of Florida — a once-competitive state where chronic Democratic dysfunction has led to Republican dominance.

Trump and the Republicans are handing to Democrats political opportunities that were, until recently, hard to imagine. Democrats need to be smart and disciplined in our response.

The map is hard, but places like Texas show promise. The opportunity is real. Let’s be bold enough to take it.

Luke Warford is the founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a Political Action Committee working to build a Democratic ecosystem that can win statewide in Texas.