Trump’s mass deportation fantasy is collapsing
President Donald Trump promised the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history. But halfway through his first year back in office, he’s not even matching the numbers under former President Barack Obama, let alone fulfilling his own pledge.
New figures obtained by NBC News show that while Immigration and Customs Enforcement is arresting immigrants at the fastest pace in at least five years, deportations are lagging significantly.
In June, ICE detained around 30,000 people—the highest monthly total since data began being released in late 2020. However, deportations that month barely exceeded 18,000. May showed a similar trend: 24,000 arrests but only about 15,000 deportations.
It’s becoming a hallmark of Trump’s second term: performative crackdowns, legal overreach, and a deportation bottleneck that stalls the scheme—even with him having the full power of federal agencies.
Since February, Trump’s administration has averaged 14,700 deportations per month. That’s less than half of the former Obama administration’s 2013 average—36,000 per month—and only slightly above Biden’s early 2024 pace of around 12,660 per month (including border removals handled by U.S. Customs and Border Protection).
Trump has long campaigned on cruelty, promising to deport 1 million people in his first year, even as public support for immigration has grown recently. Now, even his base is noticing the disconnect: Arrests are up, rhetoric is loud, and results are minimal.
The data supports what immigration advocates have long said: Trump’s goals were unrealistic. There simply aren’t enough eligible people to deport quickly enough to reach that number legally. And when legal barriers arise, Trump seems eager to bypass due process to maintain appearances.
To speed up removals, the administration has started fast-tracking cases—stripping asylum protections, revoking visas, breaking promises to undocumented farmworkers, and pushing immigrants into expedited removal without court hearings. But even these heavy-handed tactics haven’t closed the gap.
Legal safeguards are slowing things down—thankfully and for good reason. Immigration attorneys told NBC that many detainees are still waiting on asylum decisions or have court orders preventing deportation. These delays are part of the process. But Trump’s team views them as obstacles.
That impatience has already led to serious mistakes. ICE has wrongfully deported at least four immigrants recently, including Kilmar Abrego Garcia and Jordin Alexander Melgar-Salmeron, who were later ordered to be returned by judges.
Meanwhile, ICE detention centers are overwhelmed. NBC reports that more than 60,000 people are being detained, far exceeding the 41,500 beds funded by Congress. Overcrowding, poor hygiene, and medical neglect are reportedly widespread, even if Department of Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin dismissed those claims as “categorically false.”
She also claimed ICE is working “diligently” to expand detention capacity.
That expansion may happen soon. Congress recently passed Trump’s vicious budget law, which allocates $45 billion to immigration enforcement and potentially tripling ICE’s detention capacity. Critics argue it won’t improve outcomes—just worsen dysfunction.
But as Trump’s team doubles down on dehumanizing rhetoric, they’re now stuck with a problem of their own making: trying to justify the threat they’ve spent years exaggerating.
After all, if the crisis were truly as severe as Trump and his allies claim, he wouldn’t be struggling to deliver on his biggest campaign promise. Instead, we’re watching his signature policy stumble against legal limits, logistical failures, and cold hard reality.
Trump isn’t just falling short and losing support. He’s also revealing the emptiness of his immigration agenda. The cruelty is the point. The follow-through has never really mattered.